Something to consider is that C-USA has 5 gauranteed bids to bowls this year and the conference ain't exactly lighting it up.
At this point, there are only 4 teams above .500. I would figure that Houston, Tulsa, UTEP and Southern Mississipi are bowl locks. That leaves one spot. Currently SMU and UAB are 3-3. The last spot is between us and them. Our best bet is for them to not reach 6 wins which is certainly plausible. Of course, we can have a big say in that on Halloween night.
If that doesn't happen, then 6-6 will not get us in. We will need to beat Houston and/or Tulsa and have a better record than them. The luster is gone from Houston now after their loss and they have attendance problems and travel concerns like us, and Tulsa is not much better.