Another Reality Check

by **me@smu** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:29 pm

Arkstfan wrote:
OC Mustang wrote:Two questions, for the field: how are their defensive backs? And how is their O-line?

ASU's defensive backfield is expected have one or two drafted and everyone get at least a free agent look.

Offensive line? The first five are pretty good, depth is a HUGE issue. The coaches talk like they like the back-up talent but very inexperienced.

Most of the offense is sophmores. QB situation was messy last year with Leonard and Hewitt not breaking apart from each other to win and hold the starter's job until Leonard finally emerged late in the season as the clear-cut choice.

Alright there is no way to ask this without it sounding like I am flaming but isn't this the same DB crew that gave up 4 tds last year here in Dallas? Has something changed?

by **RGV Pony** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:39 pm

me@smu wrote:
Sam I Am wrote:

The same QB completed under 50% of his passes last year with a total of 1321 yrds, 8 touchdowns and 8 ints. Not saying that he hasn't improved but why is everyone ready to crown this kid.

Are you saying that if we want to crown him, then crown him? Hopefully after the game we can say they are who we thought they were.

To wit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMO3m5k4 ... ed&search=

by **SMU Football Blog** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:46 pm

RGV Pony wrote:
me@smu wrote:
Sam I Am wrote:

The same QB completed under 50% of his passes last year with a total of 1321 yrds, 8 touchdowns and 8 ints. Not saying that he hasn't improved but why is everyone ready to crown this kid.

Are you saying that if we want to crown him, then crown him? Hopefully after the game we can say they are who we thought they were.

To wit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMO3m5k4 ... ed&search=

Arizona lost that game.

by **Charleston Pony** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:55 pm

last year's game was a fluke and I hope our guys know that. SMU will be extremely fortunate to win this game, but that win is critical to this team's bowl chances.

by **Stallion** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:06 pm

this is a "huge game". Seriously when I pulled out the schedule and tried to decide whether SMU wins 6 or 7 games-this game is one of a only a few that I realy think will tell the tale of this season. SMU will most likely get to 6 wins and a bowl if they win Saturday.

by **expony18** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:12 pm

Stallion wrote:this is a "huge game". Seriously when I pulled out the schedule and tried to decide whether SMU wins 6 or 7 games-this game is one of a only a few that I realy think will tell the tale of this season. SMU will most likely get to 6 wins and a bowl if they win Saturday.

ASU is so much better then they showed last year against us. But saying that, they are a lot like us... they either play great or don't show up at all... this was the game i was worried about looking at this years schedule, because they are a better team then we think they are

by **smupony94** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:13 pm

expony18 wrote:
Stallion wrote:this is a "huge game". Seriously when I pulled out the schedule and tried to decide whether SMU wins 6 or 7 games-this game is one of a only a few that I realy think will tell the tale of this season. SMU will most likely get to 6 wins and a bowl if they win Saturday.
ASU is so much better then they showed last year against us. But saying that, they are a lot like us... they either play great or don't show up at all... this was the game i was worried about looking at this years schedule, because they are a better team then we think they are

Who has been looking past them? They were a question mark on my list.

by **Charleston Pony** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:19 pm

I agree this is a "huge game" this week for SMU's bowl chances and Bennett's future as a head coach.

I've circled this game along with the UTEP and UCF as critical wins as well. It will be tough to win 6, much less 7 games because this team is not as good as last year's.

by **Sam I Am** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:52 pm

Egad, we have a consensus. The ASU is the pivotal game of the year, particularly because so few people realy understand the dynamics and importance of this game.

by **smupony94** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:53 pm

Sam I Am wrote:Egad, we have a consensus. The ASU is the pivotal game of the year, particularly because so few people realy understand the dynamics and importance of this game.

by **OC Mustang** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 9:45 pm

Alright, I am trying to answer my own sets of questions vis-a-vis ASU's potential in the game vs. us. Forget intangibles...and I am going to handicap (or sandbag, depending on one's POV) the assessment because it is strictly based on one game (ASU vs. UT). I also didn't see the game.

ASU's FG kicker can hit and miss long ones...hitting a 45 but missing a 46 yarder. He missed a 37 and hit on a 28. (4x attempts)
The kickoffs (different guy) avg 60 yards...pretty solid, but not Morestead.
Their kickoff return team is decent, and the new kickoff spot will make them better. 33 and 25 yarders for the long. Their punter sucks. 35 yard avg w/ 41 long.

They spread the ball around...8 receivers w/ 5 getting the lions' share of the action. 3 long balls vs. UT...50, 32, and 21 yards...each to different receiver...those receivers also being the top 3 for the game. The rest of the passes avg 8 yrds, 4 yrds, and 6 yrds respectively. Top 3 receivers are 6' Sr WR, a player than I can't ID b/c no info, and a running back...(hence, the short game) or screens? They also dumped 2 off to a TE. So their short game is their bread & butter. The TOP parity w/ UT suggests that as well. The run/pass parity suggest play action as well. BTW, the long balls were between the 20s...and only one (not the 50, which was followed up by a sack and a pic) got them close. They only hit 2 of 6 in the red zone.

Their QB is solid...4.6 40 yard...has feet and uses them similarly to JWill. Is roughly the same size as Justin. Had the most ground yardage vs. UT...with a running back behind him but with a nice 6.8 yards per carry. With the exception of the big 50 yard bomb and two or three other passes > 15 yards, he averages 10 yarders. He's an athlete at multiple sports in high school. Background suggests that not much rattles him. He does throw pics, though.

Defensively, they are subceptible to the run, at least Jamal Charles anyway. They have a ball-hawking secondary. In fact, they get everybody into the act back there...either running nickel sets or rotating DBs all over the place. The have DEs and a LB that make some tackles, but the lions' share of tackles are from DBs, including the sacks...which suggests safety or corner blitzes. One interior DL gets my attention...Curtis Bonds...makes me wonder whether he is related to the Bonds family we all know and love. Big boy...6-4 285 He had a few tackles.

Lastly, they are prone to penalties as much as SMU is. False start penalties all over the place. Killed two of their drives vs. UT...Texas didn't have to lift a finger. Ouch.

Net-net...that's the review...not scientific enough, and definitely not worthy of Pony Pride. But hope it gives everybody a little while to digest strengths and weaknesses.

by **Sam I Am** » Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:26 pm

With all of the good ASU info, who does OC pick to win?

by **OC Mustang** » Tue Sep 11, 2007 12:29 am

Sam I Am wrote:With all of the good ASU info, who does OC pick to win?

SMU wins. What? You think I'm picking the opposition? :wink:

Seriously, though. I think that their passing game is nowhere nearly as dangerous as Tech's, and their scheme doesn't appear to be anything like Dodge's. Dodge believes in passing vertically and doing so to wear out a defense such that he can break their spirit in the first half of the game. Given that 20% of ASU's pass offense vs. Texas was a 50 yard big pass play that ended 5 plays, a sack, a penalty, and a pic in the end zone later, I'm just not buying that they are there, even withstanding our downright porous secondary. The ASU QB was passing that much because he was consistently being torn up by false starts and Texas D.

Ark State was kept in the Texas game by their D and reasonable returns on special teams. Their secondary scares the bejeebers out of me. Here is what I think, though. Believe it or not, I think our O-line and RBs win the game this Saturday. I respect ASU's run D, but I think DMart should aim for 125+ yards. Mapps the same. Willis should shoot for 150 yards with no pics and leave the touchdowns to the backs. The receivers should be as physical as possible with the DBs...if they get them worn out, I think one WR or Chase has a chance to take one in from the air.

I think we win the opposite way we did last year. We pulled a Dodge and crushed their spirit before half-way through the 2nd Quarter last year. This time, I think SMU should pound away on the ground until one of their DBs cheats up one time too many, thinking about his pro prospects....

Just my thoughts IMHO....

by **PonyLove** » Tue Sep 11, 2007 12:33 am

According to their fan board, they are planning to blow us out...I think the whole hanging with UT thing went to their head....Of course most of them are still fuming about their last game being called off...

by **OC Mustang** » Tue Sep 11, 2007 12:41 am

PonyLove wrote:According to their fan board, they are planning to blow us out...I think the whole hanging with UT thing went to their head....Of course most of them are still fuming about their last game being called off...

Yeah, and their fans aren't calling the game. Again...their D kept them in this...not their offense. So whatever the stats are, they still gotta line up and do it.

And I don't think they can...

Final score: SMU 31 Ark State 16
DMart = 1 TD
Cunningham = FG
Mapps = 2 TDs
Sanders = 1 TD

Ark State has defensive TD (PAT fails), TD from run, and FG

But now I am pulling stuff out of my [deleted]

Another Reality Check

Re: ASU can pass

Re: ASU can pass

Agreed, the ASU game is the season

Re: Agreed, the ASU game is the season

So who do you pick, OC?

Re: So who do you pick, OC?

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