What if the BCS has screwed itself?

[Undercover Frog]

the bcs wouldn't let tcu or boise play anyone else last year therefore no chance of embarrassing a bcs school.
no way either one gets into the nc game, i don't care how many losses the bcs schools have. tcu and boise are out no matter what.

The NC game works differently than the other BCS games. BCS games get to choose any eligible team they want. And yes, last year the BCS execs convinced the Fiesta Bowl committee to select both TCU and Boise so as to prevent them beating two AQ teams in the same year.

BUT, the BCS execs don't really have much say in who goes to the NC game. Those teams are selected by the Coaches and the Computers, and the BCS is obliged to take teams No. 1 and 2.

[GoRedGoBlue]

No one in the bIg10 is as good as Ohio State. They go undefeated. Alabama is another matter. 4 times the team they play in the SEC has a bye week before playing alabama.

[GoRedGoBlue]

the bcs wouldn't let tcu or boise play anyone else last year therefore no chance of embarrassing a bcs school.
no way either one gets into the nc game, i don't care how many losses the bcs schools have. tcu and boise are out no matter what.

The NC game works differently than the other BCS games. BCS games get to choose any eligible team they want. And yes, last year the BCS execs convinced the Fiesta Bowl committee to select both TCU and Boise so as to prevent them beating two AQ teams in the same year.

BUT, the BCS execs don't really have much say in who goes to the NC game. Those teams are selected by the Coaches and the Computers, and the BCS is obliged to take teams No. 1 and 2.

That's not what happened - popular myth.

Fiesta was in a quandry...they could have ended up with an CINCY v TCU - the worst possible choice of the lot.

Otherwise they could have picked IOWA, but then they would have been left with Cincy-IOWA or TCU-Iowa.

Yahn.

Play the picking game last year.

Auto bids first, then by position:

Jan 1 -- Rose Bowl -- Ohio State vs. Oregon -- AUTO
Jan 7 -- BCS Title Game -- Texas vs. Alabama -- AUTO

Florida goes to SUGAR (Auto)
GaTech goes to ACC (Auto)

CHOICES:

Iowa - The second-best attendance possibility.
Cincinatti -- The worst of all the situation b/c of commuter school, and poor attendance the year prior in BCS game.
Boise State -- The best attendance possibility
TCU -- the second worst attendance possibility, but an intriguing NON-AQ

YOU MAKE THE PICK:

Selection Order:
Orange - Auto GATech
Sugar - Auto FLA
Fiesta - (______)
Orange - (_______)
Sugar - (_______)
Fiesta - (_______)

IF Fiesta picks IOWA, what happens? Likely ORANGE and and SUGAR punt on CINCY, leaving IOWA-CINCY Fiesta. Yuck.

IF Fiesta picks CINCY (the worst pick), what happens? IOWA to Orange, Boise to SUGAR (or vice versa), leaving CINCY-TCU Fiesta.

If Fiesta picks TCU first, what happens? IOWA and BOISE get picked, leaving TCU-CINCY Fiesta.

If Fiesta picks BOISE first (the best for attendance), what happens? Exactly what happened, the best available matchup for the FIESTA BOWL. (the only alternative is SUGAR takes TCU, leaving CINCY for FIesta - that was the gamble: BSU v CINCY or BSU v TCU)

Had instead FIESTA taken TCU first, they would have lost BSU. So they took BSU first.

CAN YOU COME UP WITH ANOTHER SCENARIO? IF you were the FIESTA, what would you do?

TCU v BSU had an angle, and was the BEST bowl scenario for the FIESTA, bar none.



Jan 1 -- Sugar Bowl -- Florida vs. _____ -- 5:30 P.M. PST / FOX

Jan 4 -- Fiesta Bowl -- _____ vs. ______ -- 5:00 P.M. PST / FOX

Jan 5 -- Orange Bowl -- _____ vs. Georgia Tech -- 5:00 P.M. PST / FOX

Jan 7 -- BCS Title Game -- Texas vs. Alabama -- 5:00 P.M. PST / ABC

[leopold]

No one in the bIg10 is as good as Ohio State. They go undefeated. Alabama is another matter. 4 times the team they play in the SEC has a bye week before playing alabama.

Maybe. I'm certainly not going to disagree with you.

But OSU hasn't always lived up to potential. And I don't think I'm a crazy person to throw out the idea that they (or Michigan, or UW, or MSU) win the Big 10 with a single loss on their record.

So back to the original question: Do BSU and TCU both get in if they win out and nobody else does?

[smu diamond m]

Nope.

[Pony_Law]

The one thing I can't stand is the voters don't give any credit to beating a highly ranked team from a non_AQ Conference. UTAH will probably be ranked 10th in the country when TCU plays them but will drop to close to 22nd if TCU beats them When two decently ranked AQ teams play the loser never drops that far unless it is a blow out

[GoRedGoBlue]

No one in the bIg10 is as good as Ohio State. They go undefeated. Alabama is another matter. 4 times the team they play in the SEC has a bye week before playing alabama.

Maybe. I'm certainly not going to disagree with you.

But OSU hasn't always lived up to potential. And I don't think I'm a crazy person to throw out the idea that they (or Michigan, or UW, or MSU) win the Big 10 with a single loss on their record.

So back to the original question: Do BSU and TCU both get in if they win out and nobody else does?

Depends on the other teams from those conferences.

Hypos: If a #7 fla beats #1 bama, then flas jumps tcu and maybe bsu.

If #1 bama loses to 1 loss #21 lsu, then bsu moves up.

[GoRedGoBlue]

I think at least bsu gets in if every bcs conf champ has 1 loss.

The problem though is that rankings are visualized linearly, but the rank itself is akin to logarithmic.

So a 2 loss bcs team could be 1 position behind a tcu, win convincingly while tcu wins a yawner, and they may jump.

Furthermore, the bcs rankings are based on an average of the linear position of each component: coach, Harris, computer

Bit the polls themselves are not linear. So last year you had cincy jump tcu there at the end, but the actual ranking when averaged was tcu above cincy.
Furthermore, had tx lost b12 champ, tcu would have jumped cincy -- that's a math fact.

People didn't think about it very much in depth. But if I recall correctly, cincy was helped by the computer poll being ranked 2. Tx was below cincy. So a tx loss didn't help cincy in it's better component, whereas tcu was ranked ahead of ci in both human polls.

Now if the humans continued to vote tcu 3, cincy 4, there's no reason to believe that bc of a tx loss that they would flip ci and tcu

So a tx loss moves both up 1 slot in each human poll, but moves only tcu up in the computer poll. +3 for tcu / 3 vs +2 for ci / 3. That would have been enough to put tcu in the title game.



And let's not forget that to date the nonaqs have played by far the harder schedules, and the WAC and mwc are currently ranked ahead of both the acc and big east. That's not likely to change ameboid lot since non conf play is almost over.

[GoRedGoBlue]

Ex

Harris / coach / computer
25. Bama / bama / bama
24. Tx / tx / cincy
23. Tcu / tcu / tx
22. Cincy / cincy / xxx
21. Xx / xx / tcu

Cincy rank is (24+22+22)/3= 68/3
tcu rank is (23+23+21)/3 = 67/3

But

Tx loses b12.

Harris / coach / computer
25. Bama / bama / bama
24. Tcu / tcu / cincy
23. Cincy /cincy / tcu

Add 3 to tcu, add 2 to cincy.

There's another twist I am forgetting but I did the math last year and tcu came out ahead. But you get the idea.

[GoRedGoBlue]

The one thing I can't stand is the voters don't give any credit to beating a highly ranked team from a non_AQ Conference. UTAH will probably be ranked 10th in the country when TCU plays them but will drop to close to 22nd if TCU beats them When two decently ranked AQ teams play the loser never drops that far unless it is a blow out

Didn't happen last year when tcu beat Utah. But it usually is the case.Morsel if it were ark losing to Bama on game 9. They'd drop maybe 3-4 spots.

[EastStang]

A one loss auto bid team will go the NC ahead of TCU and BSU, book it. The only hope for them is that all the auto-bid champions have two losses. Query, say Alabama beats Florida and Florida runs the table and Alabama loses in the SEC Championship game to a a two loss team, does Florida go to the NC because it had only one loss. Say, UT gets its sea legs and manages to win the South with one conference loss. Say NE comes in with one loss and UT beats them in the championship game. UT now has 2 losses NE has two losses. Does UT jump over TCU and BSU? Or the funniest scenario of them all. What if Oregon State wins the Pac-10? My view is that the coaches are not going to vote TCU and BSU ahead of any auto-bid team (except perhaps a BE or ACC team).

[ontheedgeofmyseat]

Leopold...think..."USA Today", bro...tighten that up..

[leopold]

Sorry to sound dense, but I don't read ya....

You mean TCU got jumped even though they won? If TCU and BSU wins and everybody else is losing, then's that's not an issue.

[GoRedGoBlue]

Sorry to sound dense, but I don't read ya....

You mean TCU got jumped even though they won? If TCU and BSU wins and everybody else is losing, then's that's not an issue.

Tcu was 4/5 last week, won, and are now 5/5 in the polls

[GoRedGoBlue]

A one loss auto bid team will go the NC ahead of TCU and BSU, book it. The only hope for them is that all the auto-bid champions have two losses. Query, say Alabama beats Florida and Florida runs the table and Alabama loses in the SEC Championship game to a a two loss team, does Florida go to the NC because it had only one loss. Say, UT gets its sea legs and manages to win the South with one conference loss. Say NE comes in with one loss and UT beats them in the championship game. UT now has 2 losses NE has two losses. Does UT jump over TCU and BSU? Or the funniest scenario of them all. What if Oregon State wins the Pac-10? My view is that the coaches are not going to vote TCU and BSU ahead of any auto-bid team (except perhaps a BE or ACC team).

Tcu would have made it over cincy last year had tx lost. That would be tcu over an undefeated bcs team.