One month out...Ceiling and Floor for SMU this year...

[Water Pony]

Don't underrate how much more difficult the schedule is this season. We did things last year like pull out the Duke game even though we made a ton of mistakes. We @Clemson, Miami, and Louisville this year if that happens, of course, but Baylor, @TCU, Syracuse, @Wake and @BC are all going to be interesting games for a variety of different reasons. The ACC was really down last year, but I would expect a step up this season.

I agree with JasonB.

The ACC looks stronger this year. Clemson, Miami, Louisville, GA Tech, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina (what is the upside for them with Bill Belichick?) and SMU will be very competitive.

[highlander]

Don't underrate how much more difficult the schedule is this season. We did things last year like pull out the Duke game even though we made a ton of mistakes. We @Clemson, Miami, and Louisville this year if that happens, of course, but Baylor, @TCU, Syracuse, @Wake and @BC are all going to be interesting games for a variety of different reasons. The ACC was really down last year, but I would expect a step up this season.

I agree with JasonB.

The ACC looks stronger this year. Clemson, Miami, Louisville, GA Tech, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina (what is the upside for them with Bill Belichick?) and SMU will be very competitive.

UNC will be better this year, though that is not saying much. Their record SHOULD BE good, because they have what appears to be THE EASIEST conference schedule. Other than Clemson, their other 7 conference opponents are 7 of the 8 lowest ranked in terms of FPI: Duke(10), NC State (11), Cal(13), Cuse(14), UVA(15), Stanford(16), Wake(17). They don't have to play Miami(1), SMU(3), VATech(4), GaTech(5), L'ville(6), FSU(7), or BC(8). I could easily see them going 6-2 in conference play.

But all I really care about is them beating TCwhoo in week 1.

[JasonB]

Don't underrate how much more difficult the schedule is this season. We did things last year like pull out the Duke game even though we made a ton of mistakes. We lose @Clemson, Miami, and Louisville this year if that happens, of course, but Baylor, @TCU, Syracuse, @Wake and @BC are all going to be interesting games for a variety of different reasons. The ACC was really down last year, but I would expect a step up this season.

JasonB - are we on balance better this year, or just different?

I'm hoping to get out to practice next week, we will see.

On paper, I think we are a little better overall on the roster. Certainly deeper. But also certainly younger, and vets tend to push you through closer games and keep the team focused.

QB - Jennings I expect a step up, but as much as I like Hawkins if Jennings gets hurt we have zero experienced depth.
RB - I love McFall, and high on Harden and Green and the unknown of Johnson is intreaguing. But Brashard was amazing last year.
TE - Best room in the country
WR - I think Hudson is going to be great. Mello is an athletic freak who hopefully can consistently produce in his last year. Lots of really nice freshmen. Knight will cover most of the loss of Rodrick. I like getting Goffney back. The talent of the room has taken a step forward, but a lot of that talent is inexperienced. I think if Hudson stays healthy, the group is better than last year.
OL - Better and deeper than we have had since the DP. We finally have a line deep enough to really run tempo and I think that will make a difference.

Overall, on offense, I think we are better than last year. Should be more consistent and less dependent on explosives - last year we were very dependent on explosives from KJ, BS, RJ, Daniels. But the health of KJ, Hudson, RJ is really important.

DL - last year's line was amazing, not just talent but also how they worked well as a unit. I think this group will be more explosive off the edge in terms of rushing the QB, but not nearly as good against the run. Roberts was amazing on that edge, and you saw the difference without him in the BC game.
LB - I am a huge Kilgore fan. We lost a lot but I think Kilgore will help us be just as good as last year.
CB - I think we will take a step up. Crossley was good, but had backend issues. Deuce and the Syracuse transfer and a ton more depth will make us better. The kids are going to be really good.
S - I think NWO and Moses are great. And I saw enough from Polley in the spring that he is the next great player at that spot. At nickel, Sanders was really good for us last year. But I saw enough from Chambers stepping up that I think he will continue to evolve, and Spencer and JMJ are athletic enough to challenge. So I think we are as good at this spot as last year.

So, on defense, better in the secondary, worse on the line. It is going to be a completely different defence than we have seen the last two years. Symons is going to get creative. I think you are going to see teams try and grind us down. But I also think an improved secondary and the edge rushers are going to be a nightmare for opposing offenses when they have to throw the ball, so you might actually see more negative plays.

In short, we are going to be very different. Less reliant on explosives on offense, more reliant on explosives on defence. But I think better overall.

The challenge is that Clemson has an amazing Roster. Miami I think has some really top end talent that gives them a slight roster edge over us. We have a top end talent edge over the TCU roster, but overall the rosters are pretty close, so being away that is a 50/50 game. Baylor we have a top end talent advantage and an overall roster advantage, but the difference isn't huge, so that game is going to be pretty close. Louisville is hard to predict - the offense looks scary, but overall the roster doesn't freak you out too much - they didn't upgrade the overall talent as much as I thought they were going to. Cal and Stanford both improved their roster and will be more competitive than last year. Syracuse is going to completely depend on QB1. BC I loved last year the second half of the year, but their roster looks like crap. I thought BOB had them moving in the right direction, but after looking at the roster I'm not quite sure he is recruiting at a high enough level. The Wake roster is pretty bad.

I have us at 4th in the league in terms of roster talent behind Clemson, FSU, and Miami. Last year we were 6th, so we have improved. But I think Baylor, TCU, Clemson, Miami, Louisville will all be tough games and there is potential for @Cal, @BC, and Syracuse to give us some fits.

I would be ecstatic with 10-2 this season. I'm probably expecting 9-3 or 8-4. That expectation changes if I get out there and DT is playing really well, the backup WR look great, and McFall is dominant.

[JasonB]

Don't underrate how much more difficult the schedule is this season. We did things last year like pull out the Duke game even though we made a ton of mistakes. We @Clemson, Miami, and Louisville this year if that happens, of course, but Baylor, @TCU, Syracuse, @Wake and @BC are all going to be interesting games for a variety of different reasons. The ACC was really down last year, but I would expect a step up this season.

I agree with JasonB.

The ACC looks stronger this year. Clemson, Miami, Louisville, GA Tech, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina (what is the upside for them with Bill Belichick?) and SMU will be very competitive.

UNC will be better this year, though that is not saying much. Their record SHOULD BE good, because they have what appears to be THE EASIEST conference schedule. Other than Clemson, their other 7 conference opponents are 7 of the 8 lowest ranked in terms of FPI: Duke(10), NC State (11), Cal(13), Cuse(14), UVA(15), Stanford(16), Wake(17). They don't have to play Miami(1), SMU(3), VATech(4), GaTech(5), L'ville(6), FSU(7), or BC(8). I could easily see them going 6-2 in conference play.

But all I really care about is them beating TCwhoo in week 1.

That schedule is insane. I think they are 7-1 in conference. Their roster is significantly worse than Clemson (so is everyone's), but on that list I think NC State is the only roster that gives them a problem. Cal and Syracuse could be a challenge if they find QB1. But Duke really outperformed their roster last season because they had a great defense, and I am not sure they will do that again even though they got better at QB. They just aren't at the same talent level.

ACC Roster Tiers:

Tier 1 - Clemson
Tier 2 - FSU
Tier 3 - Miami, SMU, UNC
Tier 4 - VT, NC State, Louisville, Cal, Stanford, Syracuse
Tier 5 - Pitt, GT, Duke, Virginia
Tier 6 = BC, Wake

For the first 3 tiers, bad QB play will take them down several notches, so we will see what happens to FSU and UNC based on how their QB ends up producing.

For tier 4, great QB play will elevate. Louisville's offense is scary. But if any of those teams are really good at QB they will be difficult.

Tier 5 - Pitt, GT, and Duke all outperformed their talent last year. Pitt and GT through their QB and Duke with their defense. But it is going to be really hard to replicate that with the talent gap. Clemson has 62 players at 87+. FSU 59. Miami 50, SMU 49, UNC 49. The tier 5 teams all have around 25. SMU would have smashed Duke if we didn't turn the ball over 6 times. Duke and GT will have a better record than their team talent will indicate because they are good at QB and GT only plays Clemson and Duke only has Clemson and UNC. Pitt plays FSU, Louisville, ND, and Miami and will end up getting labeled as a disappointment.

[EastStang]

Because I drive down to Central Virginia often, I listen to a Charlottesville radio station. Its probably hype, but they are saying UVA will be improved this year, because of their offensive line. They did hang with us for about 3 quarters last year. So, they might pull an upset or two this year.

[Charleston Pony]

Because I drive down to Central Virginia often, I listen to a Charlottesville radio station. Its probably hype, but they are saying UVA will be improved this year, because of their offensive line. They did hang with us for about 3 quarters last year. So, they might pull an upset or two this year.

After starting 4-1 last year only to finish 5-7, my Virginia neighbor who follows the program closely says this is Elliott's year to either get Virginia to a bowl game or start looking for his next job. They hit the portal harder than ever before and brought in a couple of QBs including Chandler Morris.

[highlander]

Because I drive down to Central Virginia often, I listen to a Charlottesville radio station. Its probably hype, but they are saying UVA will be improved this year, because of their offensive line. They did hang with us for about 3 quarters last year. So, they might pull an upset or two this year.

I think you might be thinking of a different game, like BC maybe. In the UVA game it was 20-0 after 3, and the only reason the margin wasn;t bigger is because of some really bad calls/missed calls. UVA had 173 yd of offense, their QB was running for his life all day, and they were never in the game.

[EastStang]

No 20-0 while large lead was still a three score game, meaning we hadn't put them away, yet. I was expecting a 35-0 at that point.

[East Coast Mustang]

UVA hung with us for three quarters last year in the sense that their players were on the same playing surface as ours, but that game was not in doubt going into the fourth. Not at all. Our D was manhandling them. It would've been a shutout had their QB not launched a prayer and their stud WR went up and made a great catch in the endzone

[JasonB]

Because I drive down to Central Virginia often, I listen to a Charlottesville radio station. Its probably hype, but they are saying UVA will be improved this year, because of their offensive line. They did hang with us for about 3 quarters last year. So, they might pull an upset or two this year.

Chandler Morris is a nice get at QB, but their roster isn't quite there yet. They are part of that 5th tier where good QB play can get them middle of the pack.

As far as their OL is concerned, as a point of reference, we have 9 OL who are 5, 4, or upper 3 star recruits. Virginia has 4. They have 7 more who would be considered "solid" recruits (we have 5 more in that category). Their OL might be better, but it was awful last year - their QB ran for his life most of the games and made plays because of that mobility. I would guess that they will see an upgrade from awful to adequate.

[RunningStang]

I say 10-2, but I am an SMU homer since I was six watching Eric Dickerson run all up and down Texas Stadium. Been waiting for this season like this for a long, long time and I intend to enjoy every single moment. See y’all on the Boulevard!


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[Dukie]

I agree with JasonB.

The ACC looks stronger this year. Clemson, Miami, Louisville, GA Tech, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina (what is the upside for them with Bill Belichick?) and SMU will be very competitive.

UNC will be better this year, though that is not saying much. Their record SHOULD BE good, because they have what appears to be THE EASIEST conference schedule. Other than Clemson, their other 7 conference opponents are 7 of the 8 lowest ranked in terms of FPI: Duke(10), NC State (11), Cal(13), Cuse(14), UVA(15), Stanford(16), Wake(17). They don't have to play Miami(1), SMU(3), VATech(4), GaTech(5), L'ville(6), FSU(7), or BC(8). I could easily see them going 6-2 in conference play.

But all I really care about is them beating TCwhoo in week 1.

That schedule is insane. I think they are 7-1 in conference. Their roster is significantly worse than Clemson (so is everyone's), but on that list I think NC State is the only roster that gives them a problem. Cal and Syracuse could be a challenge if they find QB1. But Duke really outperformed their roster last season because they had a great defense, and I am not sure they will do that again even though they got better at QB. They just aren't at the same talent level.

ACC Roster Tiers:

Tier 1 - Clemson
Tier 2 - FSU
Tier 3 - Miami, SMU, UNC
Tier 4 - VT, NC State, Louisville, Cal, Stanford, Syracuse
Tier 5 - Pitt, GT, Duke, Virginia
Tier 6 = BC, Wake

For the first 3 tiers, bad QB play will take them down several notches, so we will see what happens to FSU and UNC based on how their QB ends up producing.

For tier 4, great QB play will elevate. Louisville's offense is scary. But if any of those teams are really good at QB they will be difficult.

Tier 5 - Pitt, GT, and Duke all outperformed their talent last year. Pitt and GT through their QB and Duke with their defense. But it is going to be really hard to replicate that with the talent gap. Clemson has 62 players at 87+. FSU 59. Miami 50, SMU 49, UNC 49. The tier 5 teams all have around 25. SMU would have smashed Duke if we didn't turn the ball over 6 times. Duke and GT will have a better record than their team talent will indicate because they are good at QB and GT only plays Clemson and Duke only has Clemson and UNC. Pitt plays FSU, Louisville, ND, and Miami and will end up getting labeled as a disappointment.

uNC will be 6-2 at best. Unless they catch Klempson sleeping. Go Duke.

[highlander]

uNC will be 6-2 at best. Unless they catch Klempson sleeping. Go Duke.

They would have to catch them completely comatose.

[PNW_Stang]

It all depends on Jennings’ health. If he is injured early in season, going to be a rough year. If he is healthy all year long, going to be an awesome 9-10 win season.

Ceiling: 10-2 if QB play is consistently strong and the defensive front overperforms expectations.

Floor: 7-5 if QB depth is tested and the defensive front struggles against the run.

Most Likely: 9-3, maybe 8-4 — losses to Clemson, one of Baylor/TCU, and one of Miami/Louisville, with the possibility of one more slip-up. My final prediction is 9-4.

Playoff run in 2026?