Expert Predictions for SMU/UCF

[BUS]

If this team plays all 4 quarters like the 4qtr of Tulane... the fist 1/2 of Navy or the 2nd 1/2 of TTech. We win.

The last time I saw 4 quarters was Nevada and what was that score.
Mustang Militia
"We come to win"

[PonyPlayer4]

It would be a nice time to put our first complete game together.

[Stallion]

Interesting Fun Fact:

SMU averages 30 more yards in Total Offense per game BUT UCF scores 7 more points per game. We can win this game but SMU is going to have to play 4 quarters which it hasn't all year

[smupony94]

Interesting Fun Fact:

There are no rental cars in Bermuda.

[mrydel]

Interesting Fun Fact:

There are no rental cars in Bermuda.

Yet they have cornered the market on shorts and onions.

[smupony94]

Interesting Fun Fact:

There are no rental cars in Bermuda.

Yet they have cornered the market on shorts and onions.

grass too?

[BUS]

Send the Police to Keep Austin's house - He deals grass?

[mustang addict]

SMU 31-30 Oh Happy Day! I could get use to Conference Championship Games every year.

[JesuitPony]

SMU 31
UCF 27

[EastStang]

Interesting Fun Fact:

There are no rental cars in Bermuda.

Yet they have cornered the market on shorts and onions.

grass too?

I thought Willie Nelson had the market cornered on grass.

[b_caesar]

Yet they have cornered the market on shorts and onions.

grass too?

I thought Willie Nelson had the market cornered on grass.

He's a bit indisposed, at present...

[gostangs]

and asleep, apparently. Guess he would call it mellow

does he look 100 or what?

[ponyboy]

Arresting Willie. What has this world come to?

[EastStang]

I thought Willie Nelson had the market cornered on grass.

He's a bit indisposed, at present...

[/quote]
Hence why I said he'd cornered the market on grass.

[Harry0569]

College Football News' Take

CFN Conference USA Predictions: SU: 72-23 ATS 48-41

Saturday, December 4th, 12:00, ESPN2

As the resident expert in Conference USA title games, UCF might need to give SMU a brief tour before kickoff.

For the Knights, this will be their third appearance since 2005 as the East Division representative. For the Mustangs, this is an entirely new experience. Yeah, there breaks along the way, such as a season-ending injury to Houston QB Case Keenum, but don’t expect SMU to apologize for anything. The program sees this as the next step in its evolution under third-year head coach June Jones. A year ago, it ended its quarter-century bowl drought. On Saturday, it’ll be looking for its first conference championship since sharing the 1984 Southwest Conference title with Houston, who, ironically, was favored to win the West Division this season.

The Mustangs took the circuitous route to get to this place. Expectations were high entering the season, but it’s debatable whether or not they were met. On one hand, considering how long it took to even return to the postseason, you’d have to be ecstatic to be in this position. On the other, though, Jones’ offense appeared to go in reverse, and three of the team’s five losses were against opponents, like UTEP, it feels it should have beaten. A second straight bowl game is an unquestioned sign of success in Dallas. To what degree, however, will depend on how well the team performs in Orlando.

While this game belongs on the timeline for SMU, it’s a little more routine at UCF. The Knights have established themselves as one of the two or three signature Conference USA programs since George O-Leary took over seven years ago. It was expected to take the East and didn’t disappoint, winning seven of the final eight games. Only a 31-21 loss to Southern Miss on Nov. 13 prevented UCF from entering this game ranked.

While it’s been business as usual for UCF, the new catalyst on offense has been anything but ordinary. Saddled with offensive problems for years, namely at quarterback, O’Leary gave the ball to precocious rookie Jeff Godfrey and has never regretted the move. The kid has been a multi-dimensional revelation, rushing for 10 scores and throwing a dozen touchdown passes, including two in each of the last five games. Best of all, he’s poised beyond his years and just a few months removed from Miami Central High School, so this could be his first of multiple championship game starts.

UCF is expected to win at BrightHouse Networks Stadium this Saturday afternoon, but that doesn’t mean SMU is content to be its dance partner. On the contrary. Jones has his Mustangs believing that they can deliver the kind of huge upset that propels the program to new heights.

Players to Watch: The one fact about Jones that would floor casual fans is that he’s had a 1,000-yard rusher in each of the last two seasons. Yup, the purveyor of the run-and-shoot is also adept at keeping defenses off balance. Last year, Shawnbrey McNeal shouldered the load. This season, it’s been sophomore Zach Line. A 6-1, 235-pounder, with all of the wiggle of a fullback, he’s plowed his way to a league-best 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s been a tremendous change-of-pace to the quick strikes of Kyle Padron to receivers Aldrick Robinson, Cole Beasley, and Darius Johnson.

The UCF linebackers are plenty quick, but will they be tough enough to handle Line when he starts to roll downhill? While the program loves the sideline-to-sideline ability of Lawrence Young and Derrick Hallman, both are significantly smaller than the north-south running back. They’ll sift through the traffic and get to him in a hurry, but the key for the Knights will be to wrap him up and prevent extra yards after contact.

The bigger concern for the SMU offensive line will be containing UCF ends Bruce Miller and Darius Nall, who both bring interesting stories to the game. Miller wasn’t heavily recruited coming of high school, yet leads all active players with 32 career sacks, including five this season. An intense and well-conditioned athlete, he’ll wear down opponents down in the second half. When Miller gets too much attention, Nall is the beneficiary, collecting a team-high 7.5 sacks this year. He’s an inspiration to his teammates, overcoming cancer to return to the team in 2009. While the Mustangs have been spotty in pass protection, Jones feels he has a next-level pillar at left tackle in Kelvin Beachum. When he’s lined up opposite Miller, it’ll be a match up that’s worth locking on to for a few plays.

SMU’s answer to Miller and Nall is LB Ja’Gared Davis, who has evolved into one of the league’s most dynamic young defensive players. He’s a hybrid, who’ll line up on the outside, but can also put his hand in the dirt and will blitz liberally. Picking up where he left off at the end of his rookie year, he’s got 77 tackles to go along with 15 tackles for loss and nine sacks. One-third of an outstanding corps of linebackers that includes Taylor Reed and Pete Fleps, he and his mates will be responsible for containing Godfrey when he breaks loose from the pocket.

SMU will win if ... Line gets at least 20 carries.

The only way the sophomore will reach that number is if SMU stays close in the first half, which is an absolutely essential ingredient for the upset. The longer the Mustangs hang around as the underdog, the more dangerous it becomes. Playing from more than one score down will be their death knell, especially in hostile territory against a team with far more big-game experience. When UCF struggled on defense during a rough three-game stretch ending in mid-November, it was allowing big chunks of yardage on the ground. Line needs to duplicate those efforts, softening the Knight defense and making life easier for his own quarterback. When SMU operates with balance, it’s a far more competitive and potent team.

UCF will win if … Godfrey is as poised under center as he was all year.

As steady as the rookie was all season, he’s still just a rookie. And will be playing in the biggest game of his young life. While it would be out of character, it wouldn’t be impossible for the kid to become unnerved in this setting. If that happens, it’ll create the opening that SMU is seeking. When the Knights have thrown more than one pick in a game, they’ve gone 0-3. Less than two? A perfect 9-0. When Godfrey is in the zone, UCF can score point in a hurry and break the back of an opponent. He’ll garner so much attention that opposing defenses tend to lose sight of RB Ronnie Weaver, who’s been a pleasant surprise, and receivers Jamar Newsome and Brian Watters. The Knights don’t need Godfrey to carry the team. They just need him to play within himself and manage the game with as few mistakes as possible.

What will happen: Not yet, Mustangs.

SMU has come a long way in a short period of time, but it’s not ready to knock off a more talented and seasoned program in its own building. Sans the one slip-up to Southern Miss, UCF has played solidly since the opener. The Knights can run the ball, have the league’s best defense, and now have an element of flash with Godfrey. They’re built to win this type of a game. Don’t be hoodwinked by the fact that Jones is the Mustang coach. The run-and-shoot has sputtered this season, scoring no more than 21 points in four of the last seven games. It’ll have problems again with a UCF D that plays fast, swarms routinely, and can create tempo-changing plays. While it’s not going to get ugly, SMU will spend the afternoon playing catch-up, never quite getting in a position to close to within a score and quiet the raucous home crowd.

CFN Prediction: UCF 34 … SMU 21 ... Line: UCF -9.5