BCS - Don't need 5 teams for 5 years

[DiamondM]

I have been saying this all along. Everyone has been talking about 4 16-team "superconferences," but that assumes that BOTH the Big East AND the Big XII would have to be entirely disbanded, and 4 (by my calculations) exisiting BCS schools will be completely left out. Both the Big East and the Big XII are going to fight to preserve themselves, and legally speaking, I don't see how if they each shore themselves up with additional teams (which they are going to try and do) they can leaglly be kicked out --- at least not right now. I also think a lawsuit by a current "have" left out is more likely and probably more legally sound than the oft-threatened antitrust suit by one or more of the never-have-been-BCS schools.

More likely is 5 "superconferences" Pac-16, SEC, ACC, Big-10-12-16, and whichever conference between the Big East and the Big XII is able to get the others (I personally think the Big XII is more likely, with the remaining Big East schools opting for basketball only) meaning 80 BCS teams. This means ADDING to the current 68 BCS schools, not subtracting. And this even can preserve the current bowl system, with 5 conference winners and 5 at large berths, for the 5 BC bowl games (including the nat'l championship game). Our odds don't look so bad under a 5 superconference scenario. Can you name 12 current non-BCS schools that look more attractive than SMU? Boise, Houston, UCF, BYU, Air Force, Navy, Army,? Memphis?, New Mexico?, Fresno?, Tulsa?, who else?

And a conference with KU, K State, Mizzou, Iowa State, Baylor, Louisville, Cinci, West Virginia, South Florida, and TCU starts to look as much like a BCS conference as the ACC, with KU, Mizzou, Cinci, TCU, and West Virginia all bringing BCS points. So you add 2 to get to 12, or 6 to get to 16, and that could include Boise, both with BCS points, BYU, plus 4 more. An SMU/TCU tandem brings more of the DFW market than just one or the other). And if WVU and another couple of orphans are picked off by the SEC to get to 16, there's even more room in this 5th "superconference."

Anyway, I'm still not overly optimistic about where SMU ends up, but everyone keeps talking about 4 superconferences without explaining how you get it DOWN to 4 instead of 5.

[Stallion]

there are plenty of teams that MIGHT jump SMU for that mythical 16th spot-I get the feeling we might get screwed if there is only one survivor among Big East and Big 12. Plenty of realignment proposals have Baylor/TCU/Houston coalition that excludes SMU. If you take SMU do they take Rice too. The idea might be to only take one in each market which might be TCU over SMU and UH over Rice

[Hoop Fan]

I don't see how a Big East/Big 12 merger could stop at 12 schools. Not if they want to fight for BCS stature. How can a weaker league stay be at 12 schools if the ACC, SEC and Pac are all at 14 if not 16? I think a merged conference would have to build up to 16 teams almost immediately to stay in the conversation. Having said that, I think all the breakup money stays with the current Big East and Big 12 members and not to any of the newbies. And we definitely could get jumped if we are not playing hardball. Two names not many people are talking about are Army and Navy, if ND can't stay indy forever, how can the academies?

[Charleston Pony]

Pretty sure the big 10 isnt going to make moves just b/c everyone else is....the decision to bring in Nebraska was tough for them and that is top 5 program of all time...

Big 10 will count their money and continue to lean on ND.....

You are correct that the Big 10 won't move based on what everyone else does...it's about the money. Nebraska was admitted to get a championship game and enhance the Big 10 network. I would not rule out Rutgers and Missou as teams 13 and 14. NY metro market is huge and Rutgers might help

We all know the SEC will not stop at 13 and Missou remains a possibility, although it messes up their geography.