Could we be left out of Division 4 Football?

[ponyinNC]

Nobody in a current power five conference will be left out, in my opinion.

Thank you.

This is truth. Nobody gets kicked out. If you are in, you are in.

Conferences stay as they are, and maybe a few teams move up. But even in the D4 scenario, nobody said that conferences have to have the same number of teams. They won't. The conferences will still have autonomy, although the B12 may actually have to pick up 2 teams in order to have a CCG.

But nobody gets booted here. Well, the G5 gets booted. But nobody else.

[StallionsModelT]

No one that is currently in a Power 5 conference will be on the outside of such an arrangement. I still don't see how these conferences could break away with only their current contingent. In such a scenario, the following schools would be left in purgatory with no chance whatsoever:

Boise State
BYU
Cincinnati
UConn
South Florida
Central Florida
Houston
SMU
Fresno State
San Diego State
Air Force
Navy
Army
Tulsa

Think what you want about these schools but that's leaving some pretty good programs and institutions out in the cold left for dead (not to mention three military academies). Far too many moving parts to exclude all of these schools. I think you'd need at a minimum 70 schools in order to satisfy the leftovers and have a truly national geographic footprint. Most likely it would take 80 schools.

[StallionsModelT]

Remember, this is also about INVENTORY. While there may be too many schools in D1A, there is still a high demand on television for college football. A big factor in all of this is ESPN. They stand to lose a lot of money and programming if you suddenly relegate half of college football to D1AA. Half of these schools will end up shutting down their football programs (us included). ESPN will not allow this to happen.

[ponyinNC]

No one that is currently in a Power 5 conference will be on the outside of such an arrangement. I still don't see how these conferences could break away with only their current contingent. In such a scenario, the following schools would be left in purgatory with no chance whatsoever:

Boise State
BYU
Cincinnati
UConn
South Florida
Central Florida
Houston
SMU
Fresno State
San Diego State
Air Force
Navy
Army
Tulsa

Think what you want about these schools but that's leaving some pretty good programs and institutions out in the cold left for dead (not to mention three military academies). Far too many moving parts to exclude all of these schools. I think you'd need at a minimum 70 schools in order to satisfy the leftovers and have a truly national geographic footprint. Most likely it would take 80 schools.

There will likely be a special deal to grandfather in the indy's (ND/BYU). I can see B12 picking up Cincy and either UH, Boise or even UConn. After that, why add more schools? Who is going to force the P5 to do that, when no one currently can force them to do anything?

The P5 want everything for themselves. TV contracts, Bowl games, Playoff money, everything. They want their own division (D4), and they are setting the wheels in motion to get there, even if it is through intimidation and exclusion. They only want to play other P5 teams in bowls. They want only THEIR AD's to sit on the playoff selection commitee (no G5 AD's). They want only their teams in the playoff games.

Watch CFB live and tell me how many stories/updates feature ANY G5 teams...crickets. I cannot watch that show anymore because it is an SEC love fest, followed by coverage of ONLY the P5.

If you think that the P5 commissioners look at the MWC or AAC any differently than they look at CUSA or SBC you are kidding yourself. If you are not in the club, you're not in. Period. I can see a few additional move-ups (UC, UConn) but honestly, they want to create an ELEVATED division of football apart from the current G5 schools. In their scenario, ECU = ODU. UCF = FIU. SMU = UTSA. UH = UNT. Memphis= Charlotte. Temple = UAB.

There are no distinctions. You are P5 or you are garbage.

[East Coast Mustang]

Does Gerald Turner have a clue here? Or is he completely asleep at the wheel?

It will be his legacy that is tarnished if SMU is forever relegated out of the top division of college football. Yes Kenneth Pye was a disaster, but we can't blame everything on him. RGT waited THIRTEEN YEARS since arriving at SMU to get somewhat serious about being competitive in the college football landscape. That's inexcusable. Meanwhile, TCU got their act together and they're on the inside looking out at us now.

[StallionsModelT]

This thing isn't going down without a major legal fight. We are talking years and years and years worth of red tape. I just don't see it happening. If this were to come to fruition, at least half of the schools in the "Group of Five" would have to shut down their football programs. Hell what would happen to Air Force, Navy, and Army? Do you think Congress is going to allow that to happen to military academies? This is simply a public way of twisting the arm of the NCAA to gain more autonomy for the Power Five.

[ponyinNC]

This thing isn't going down without a major legal fight. We are talking years and years and years worth of red tape. I just don't see it happening. If this were to come to fruition, at least half of the schools in the "Group of Five" would have to shut down their football programs. Hell what would happen to Air Force, Navy, and Army? Do you think Congress is going to allow that to happen to military academies? This is simply a public way of twisting the arm of the NCAA to gain more autonomy for the Power Five.

As an attorney myself, I hesitate to automatcially assume that a legal fight will save the day. I don't specialize in antitrust, nor do I really understand Title 9 implications, so I will leave that to the pros.

But if no legal battles have been waged as yet, when plenty of schools have been excluded already, why do we assume one will be successful after the fact? Put another way, what are the grounds for suit?

There was absolutely no red tape when the P5 cut the G5 out of bowls, or playoff committee, or when conference realignment happened. It just happened, and it was over. G5 programs won't be forced to close down, they will just be "re-positioned" into a new division.

However, I do agree with you that this could all be for the purpose of forcing the NCAA's hand w/r/t stipends, full cost of tuition type payments, and more voting power for P5 (or less power to nonBCS schools).

[StallionsModelT]

Also, you say there is no incentive for the Power Five to add schools. I disagree. Would it not make more sense ($$$ wise) to add schools in major markets? If this Division Four thing ever got off the ground I think SMU would stand a chance to make a very compelling argument for inclusion. Location, academics, fat wallets, etc. We've known for a long time that the PAC has desired access to Texas with its eyes on UT. If the Big 12 stabilizes and agrees to join this Division Four, would this not prohibit the PAC from making a run at Texas in the future? SMU and Houston are both huge markets that get the PAC into the state.

Maybe its optimistic, but I would think the powers that be at SMU would see such a scenario as the true "death penalty" for SMU athletics and do everything in their power to avoid it coming true. I'm talking about devoting $100-$200M solely to securing our spot in a power conference. Our athletic department can't survive without football IMO. We'd be a basketball-only program in a football crazy state. Turner and the BOT have to know that. Even if it meant dipping into the endowment and agreeing to forfeit TV revenue for a decade it would be worth it in the long run. It would certainly be better than shutting the entire program down. At that point you bulldoze Ford Stadium and SMU throws all its efforts into becoming the University of Chicago of the Southwest.

[StallionsModelT]

I'm no lawyer, but I think you could certainly make a case for anti-trust. Again, I'm no lawyer but it would seem to me that with so many schools that stand to be left in the lurch you could make a very compelling argument that congressional or legal intervention was needed in order to keep these institutions from extinction.

[ponyinNC]

I don't know about the anitrust angle.

The argument that I would make in the case of a school like UH - a school that is pouring over $180M into a new stadium and facilities - would be one of reliance. Houston is funding and building a stadium/facilities because of a 14 year "BCS" structure that gives them Top 4 access to a playoff, and a great chance at a "BCS" game if they win the conference. Which really translates to $$ for UH.

If all of the sudden UH is relegated to FCS status in January and they have no chance at a playoff or "BCS" bowl, there may be cause for a lawsuit b/c they expended significant money in reliance on being in the top football division.

[StallionsModelT]

Exactly. And Houston is not the only school in that boat. UNT recently built a $85M football stadium that would be useless as well (granted they have zero chance at ever being in a major conference). Schools like SMU, Houston, Boise State, Tulsa, UCF, USF, Cincy, UConn, Fresno State, San Diego State, AFA, Navy, etc. are schools that have made substantial financial and institutional commitments to being at the highest level of collegiate football. Collectively, I would think the legal argument to be made on behalf of the non-BCS schools is quite compelling. But I honestly don't know.

[West Coast Johnny]

I think the political side of this is real - that senators from Wyoming & New Mexico etc. aren't going to sit idle while this goes on.

Notre Dame & BYU don't have a pot to [deleted] in with regard to D4. In the case of Notre Dame, they will have to join a conference. Who knows what BYU will have to do.

As for paying players, I don't know how they can do this without paying everyone (Title IX).

[StallionsModelT]

Good points Johnny. It just seems like there are way too many moving parts for this to work in the real world. Its fun for these AD's to puff out their chests and flick boogers at the NCAA, but in the end don't they kind of need each other?

[East Coast Mustang]

Title IX might finally be good for something...only took like 30-something years

[rodrod5]

near future is

Big 12 = 10
B1G = 14
ACC = 14
PAC = 12
SEC = 14

that is 64 teams the least that has ever been talked about for a new division....and if you look at that who in the hell is going to be the "loser" every year, year in and year out......that is death for programs like Vanderbilt and Duke and the like because they are going to start out behind and only serve to be the whipping boys from there on out......two outstanding universities, but they will just never be able to catch a break going against football powerhouses in a division designed for one thing and that is top teams

plus Notre Dame is left out of that 64 and you can say BYU is as well and I think the only legitimate shots for any type of meaningful lawsuit is the service academies IF they bother

so right there you have 5 programs and 1 is not going to be left out for sure, BYU will make noise for sure and the service academies have real weight

and again the reality is 64 is just too damn small......but 80 works IMO

so now you have 64+5 =69 so you need 11 more

SMU has a chance to be in that 11......hell as of right now just adding the AAC would pretty much get the 80 teams, but I don't think it will be that simple and I think the PAC will be looking for some west coast schools like CSU and Air Force and perhaps a couple of others to keep them from having to go two time zones away so often for games

Boise is NOT going to make the cut period and you can just forget about Boise in the Big 12.....IMO academics is the #1 way to step away from the garbage teams because that is not something that can be disputed if done properly and the NCAA is I believe already moving towards basketball payouts based upon graduation rates to some degree

Boise is who everyone is looking to GET AWAY from....yes they have improved academics to a degree, they ditched the Community College component and it is now on it's own, but the reality is as long as a Boise is around that gives every other totally crappy non-Boise program a hope and a dream and the reality is it is just that crap that has lead to D1-A football having 124+ teams with more garbage looking to move up with 15,000 fans and a $18,000,000 total athletics budget to then whine and complain that Alabama and Texas hog all the money.....when of course you could take away 100% of the TV money AND the NCAA money from teams like Alabama and Texas and they would still have 3X the budget of those programs and 3X the number of fans.....and is there really anyone besides obama voters that thinks that Texas and Alabama should hand off a portion of their ticket sales and merchandise sales and their private athletics donations to some crap former D1-AA program with a begging bowl

so Boise is OUT period and should never be mentioned for the Big 12 or anyone else much less their complete lack of place in the Big 12 being 1,000s of miles away from the other teams and having nothing but football.....and the PAC 12 would not even want them in the Big 12 much less will never let them in the PAC

so Boise will get the flush

SMU has a chance as does UH, Cincy, USF/UCF, Rice (believe it or not academics WILL matter), Tulsa, Tulane (again believe it or not academics will matter) and CSU and a few others to round it out to 80 teams and the rest can shove off with a big heave ho! and ALL NCAA football will be better for it period