New Big 12 Thread

[Water Pony]

Writer for SEC Country proposes the following 5 Super Conferences for a 80 School solution. The beauty is in the logic and geograhical alignment:

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/we-creat ... -beautiful

[LA_Mustang]

Checkout what Keith Whitmire just tweeted. Pretty good argument for SMU in about 600 characters.

[leopold]

Nice tweet, Keith.

Here ya go:

Here's the deal: No, SMU football is not Big 12 ready. But with the money SMU is spending and recruiting policies that no longer handcuff the program, SMU is going to get there. Just like it happened for TCU, Baylor and Houston when they got serious about fb So the Big 12 can admit SMU ahead of when the program matures, or it can risk another Power conf. gaining a foothold in Texas when SMU football blooms again. It's a bit of a gamble for the Big 12, but keeping another P5 out of Dallas could be the smart move.

[stc9]

Nice tweet, Keith.

Here ya go:

Here's the deal: No, SMU football is not Big 12 ready. But with the money SMU is spending and recruiting policies that no longer handcuff the program, SMU is going to get there. Just like it happened for TCU, Baylor and Houston when they got serious about fb So the Big 12 can admit SMU ahead of when the program matures, or it can risk another Power conf. gaining a foothold in Texas when SMU football blooms again. It's a bit of a gamble for the Big 12, but keeping another P5 out of Dallas could be the smart move.

I agree with him about the foothold except only the SEC would move the needle enough for the Big XII to react immediately. The Big XII couldn't risk giving the entire eastern half of the state away to the SEC. With the ACC out of the equation - the Big XII would need to do a cost/benefit analysis if the Big Ten or Pac-12 would disrupt recruiting & TV markets enough to have to defend the market. TV partners would also have to decide if the extra $20 million was worth the intrusion from the Big Ten or Pac-12 network.

[LA_Mustang]

I think the PAC-12 would scare the Big 12 schools, too. Kids already love the west coast and with so many Californians relocating to Dallas and Houston, the familiarity is already here.

[Greenwich Pony]

It may take a few years, but any major conference that moves into the DFW area will scoop up that cash for their network and hurt the advertising value of the B12 who is already on shaky ground and has no new potential markets that move the needle. Dallas and Houston are the core of the B12's value; their citadel (other than UT/OU, two schools that could wander where ever they choose should things start to go bad). If any major conference moves into Texas more than the SEC already has, that will spell trouble. Long term, the value of adding Memphis or Hartford are not as important as keeping the B10, PAC12 or ACC out of the Metroplex or Houston. As the model for TV licensing changes, eyeballs will become more important.

But then again, the B12 is run by Larry, Curly and Moe, so I wouldn't hold my breath.

[leopold]

I understand the logic (and I'm for any argument that get's SMU into the Big XII) but between you and me there's more than enough of Texas to share with another conference or two. The SEC shares half of it's states with another conference, both ACC and Big XII, and it doesn't hurt them, at least not in terms of TV ratings - maybe recruiting. I mean Florida has both FSU and Miami in the ACC and it doens't matter - it's a UF state in terms of support.

[Greenwich Pony]

But the point is that FSU and Miami are in the Florida Market. Yes, UF is there as well, but the ACC has the benefit of basically being the only real show in Miami for network dollars. And the ACC runs in markets up and down the east coast. While it shares some of these markets, it has a number of large markets with eyeballs AND will have it's own network which runs from Boston to Miami, with several essentially exclusive important markets.

The B12 isn't located in many large or growing TV markets of value. I mean no offense to Kansas or Oklahoma or Iowa, but if I'm an advertiser, why would I buy into B12 inventory if they don't have Dallas and Houston locked up? The SEC is already eating into their value with Texas A&M; the B12 has already screwed that up. The value proposition is that if the ACC or the B12 or the PAC12 move into DFW, why would I buy the ad inventory when I could get DFW AND the East Coast, or Chicago or LA? The B12's ad inventory, even with Texas and OU, is reduced value. They can't reasonably offer the same return because they don't have the eyeballs or the demographics. It's not worthless, but it is less money coming into conference coffers. Additionally, the cable fees for whomever moves into DFW will juice that conference with an influx of cash and separate them further from B12 resources thanks to the Longhorn Network which is going nowhere.

Basically by not shoring up the two growing large markets, the B12 will guaranty that Texas and OU go elsewhere sooner (no pun intended) than later, leaving the rest of the schools holding a rather unappealing ad bag and making them in essence a version of the AAC.

[Comet]

Inviting the SEC to pretty much the Houston area was a move that I think will kill the Big XII in the long run. If any other conference were to start chipping away into DFW, then it's probably more than over. Big XII is built on shaky grounds unlike the SEC and even ACC who can do fine with multiple competing brands in states such as Florida/Georgia, etc. But the thing is, ACC, B1G, PAC, nor SEC really has any interest in SMU. We'd have to become Houston-good in football asap and sustain it for a little bit to really get anyone's attention. That's the argument for the Big XII launching a pre-emptive strike and getting SMU but I don't think most Big XII people even have that kind of perspective. It's all about the right now solution. I think Memphis and UConn (and thought WVU) were bad additions.

[EastStang]

I don't mind being a rook in the Big XII to block another conference coming into DFW. I wouldn't mind being in the ACC or the Pac 12, (I really don't think the B1G wants to move that far south which is why they balked at Missouri).

[Greenwich Pony]

Oh, I'm sure nobody is chomping at the bit to get SMU as we are. We have "potential" though the actual commitment is a little shaky. It's the getting into the DFW market that we represent, like Rutgers into NY City. Rutgers brings little interest from NYC, but it was the best school with potential in the market. I agree that letting A&M go to the SEC may have mortally wounded the B12, and the SEC doesn't need SMU or Houston, they're fine and trucking along.

The B12 is built on quicksand. Texas is at best an unreliable bully, OU will react to whatever Texas does, and the rest is... well, the rest with no network and few major markets. And the SWC/B12 has never demonstrated foresight. They have two big media assets, and they are leaving the door wide open.

Memphis, UConn and UC are stronger (for the moment) football programs, but Memphis and Cincinnati's markets aren't as big as what the B12 stands to lose, UConn doesn't really bring NYC/NE (and what's the point if you don' have a network) and WVA was a bad addition that makes little sense in terms of geography, tradition or market reach. Instead of consolidating their position and firming up their markets, they are diffusing their product identity and being pennywise and pound foolish with their key advertising outlets. A smart B12 consolidates regionally, builds identity and protects its markets. A soon to be extinct B12 doesn't because as an advertiser exclusive Waco, Manhattan (KS) and Ames doesn't get my blood pumping. Near-exclusive DFW and Houston peak my interest.

[EastStang]

Yeah, WV baffles me to some degree. Neither the ACC, B1G or the SEC were interested in them. While they have a loyal following, not 1000 miles away. They bring no TV markets. Now they are demanding a travel partner (read Cincinnati or UConn), so that they are not on an island, but they're stuck. No other P5 conference wants them. Where are they going to go? The American Conference? Yet, they have a blackball to drop on any other team that might enter if their needs aren't met. The Big XII is clearly a teetering giant.

[LA_Mustang]

According to our good friend Patterson, the Big 12 is down to six schools.

from the DMN......
BYU has expressed great interest in heading east, while Texas politicians have lobbied for Houston to join the conference. Patterson said the list of expansion schools "is probably down to six."

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... ity-better

[JasonB]

Temple, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, BYU, and UConn or SMU for the final spot?

[Bergermeister]

If the SMU lobby is serious, I hope they've got their checkbooks out. We can out ante anybody when it gets right down to it. (dead hookers or no dead hookers)