KC Radio: Big 10 EXTENDS OFFERS TO 4 SCHOOLS

[CalallenStang]

The B12 isn't going to take TCU, SMU, Houston, or anyone else in Texas unless UT and A&M both leave. UT and A&M aren't going anywhere unless CU, Neb, and Mizzou all leave. At that point, the B12 needs 5 schools just to get back to 12 and are going to want to build their own TV network. To get that network on expanded basic in Dallas (resulting in probably 25 cents per month per cable subscriber going to the conference) you have to include both SMU and TCU, as one or the other doesn't command enough of the market to put it on expanded basic (see TCU and the mtn). So TCU and SMU are equally valuable in that situation.

If UT and A&M leave, here's what the Big 12 will probably look like...OU and OSU will probably be gone too.

SMU
TCU
Houston
Rice
Texas Tech
Baylor

BYU
Kansas
Kansas State
Memphis
Iowa State
Colorado State

This arrangement gets a Big 12 Network on cable in DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Salt Lake, Denver, Memphis, and Kansas City. That's huge.

Right, but in terms of a pecking order TCU comes before SMU. As I said in another thread, our best case scenario is for the Big 12 to get completely devastated by realignment. CU to the Pac-10, Neb. and Mizzou to the Big Ten, and possibly Texas, OU, A&M, and OSU to the SEC (longshot). The conference you proposed is certainly a marriage of convenience, but it'd be leaps and bounds ahead of where we are now. My question is, does the SEC take all 4 of those teams, or just go with the Texas schools and try and pluck some ACC teams as well (Clemson, GT, Miami, VT)? In that case, what do OU and OSU do? Could we beat out Houston for the last spot in the Big 12 South if they stay? I say no, because TCU (and OU and Tech and Baylor) already provide a presence in the DFW market, whereas UH still helps tremendously in the Houston market.

Texas and OU to the Pac-10, A&M and OSU to the SEC (or Texas and A&M to the Pac-10 and OU and OSU to the SEC).

OU will NOT stay in a Big 12 without Texas and Nebraska and if OU goes, OSU goes.

Look for the SEC to grab VT and WVU in addition to the two they get from the Big 12.

[CalallenStang]

If the Big 12 is decimated to this extent, would not the MWC be the new major power and simply add 4 teams (assuming Utah goes to the Pac-10) to go to 12? Would contracts for bowl games be enough to keep the Big 12 from being raided by the MWC as well?

Basically what I showed was a best of what's left from the MWC with what's left of the B12 plus a few strategic additions. No one wants to be in a conference with SDSU and UNLV if they can help it.

SDSU and UNLV bring large markets, though. Even with their weaknesses, they are preferable to Baylor and Iowa State. I fear that you are too optimistic in this area. Unless the Big 12 can provide a monetary reason as to why is is preferable to the MWC, the MWC will dictate expansion.

Correct, but SDSU has been talking about dropping football recently (they don't want to pay the rent at Qualcomm and they don't want to build their own stadium). UNLV brings good basketball but football is bad. Wyoming brings no market. Everyone loves Air Force and they would probably get a look at the new conference (I should have put them in there).

Basically, my thought is that the MWC/Big 12 will dump the loose change. Perhaps Iowa State gets left out. I think Baylor stays to keep the Texas market.

[huskerpony]

Look for the SEC to grab VT and WVU in addition to the two they get from the Big 12.

VT, yes. WVU, no. FSU, Miami, or Clemson are more likely. WVU probably goes to the ACC then.

[CalallenStang]

Look for the SEC to grab VT and WVU in addition to the two they get from the Big 12.

VT, yes. WVU, no. FSU, Miami, or Clemson are more likely. WVU probably goes to the ACC then.

What does Clemson add that the SEC doesn't already have with South Carolina? I could see them taking FSU, though. Completely forgot about their existence for a little bit there.

[huskerpony]

Clemson has a rabid fan base. That probably outweighs adding the West Virginia tv market. But if I had to put money on it, FSU is the primary target, then VT because VT brings the DC market.

(Of course this is only if the SEC wants to split west and east and not take the Texas, A&M, and the Oklahomas as a package.)

[East Coast Mustang]

Texas and OU to the Pac-10, A&M and OSU to the SEC (or Texas and A&M to the Pac-10 and OU and OSU to the SEC).

OU will NOT stay in a Big 12 without Texas and Nebraska and if OU goes, OSU goes.

Look for the SEC to grab VT and WVU in addition to the two they get from the Big 12.

Well, if the Pac-10 is content with 12, (CU and either Utah/BYU) which I think they are, and the SEC decides to go with two teams in the west (Texas and A&M, because they won't leave each other) and two in the east, OU and OSU could be s--- out of luck.

[CalallenStang]

Texas and OU to the Pac-10, A&M and OSU to the SEC (or Texas and A&M to the Pac-10 and OU and OSU to the SEC).

OU will NOT stay in a Big 12 without Texas and Nebraska and if OU goes, OSU goes.

Look for the SEC to grab VT and WVU in addition to the two they get from the Big 12.

Well, if the Pac-10 is content with 12, (CU and either Utah/BYU) which I think they are, and the SEC decides to go with two teams in the west (Texas and A&M, because they won't leave each other) and two in the east, OU and OSU could be s--- out of luck.

I firmly believe that the only way the Pac-10 is content with 12 (CU and Utah...no BYU) is if Texas tells them no. They would be foolish to turn down the cash cow that is Texas.

[East Coast Mustang]

Texas and OU to the Pac-10, A&M and OSU to the SEC (or Texas and A&M to the Pac-10 and OU and OSU to the SEC).

OU will NOT stay in a Big 12 without Texas and Nebraska and if OU goes, OSU goes.

Look for the SEC to grab VT and WVU in addition to the two they get from the Big 12.

Well, if the Pac-10 is content with 12, (CU and either Utah/BYU) which I think they are, and the SEC decides to go with two teams in the west (Texas and A&M, because they won't leave each other) and two in the east, OU and OSU could be s--- out of luck.

I firmly believe that the only way the Pac-10 is content with 12 (CU and Utah...no BYU) is if Texas tells them no. They would be foolish to turn down the cash cow that is Texas.

Right, but if people are going to 16, the SEC's going to do it. Slive basically said as much recently. If you're Texas, where would you rather go?

[CalallenStang]

Right, but if people are going to 16, the SEC's going to do it. Slive basically said as much recently. If you're Texas, where would you rather go?

Texas would rather go to the Pac-10. A&M would rather go to the SEC. It all depends on what the statehouse will let them do.

[ponyboy]

It's going to be fun to see how much of this speculation turns out to be true. My only opinion is SMU improves its lot in life out of all of this.

[Stallion]

Here's the challenge for all you thinking that UT goes to the SEC-find one Texas insider who thinks Texas wants anything to do with the SEC. As a last resort maybe but there is way too many assumptions on this SEC theory based on miniscule evidence. I seriously doubt that would happen for a few years if ever. Not closing the door on that possibility however if the PAC refuses to allow Texas to take 3-4 of its buddies to form an Eastern Division of the PAC. And I concede that could happen. WARNING to PAC schools who vote against the Eastern Division concept-count your votes carefully because there are at least 4-5 PAC schools who are not needed. IF USC, UCLA, Cal, Arizona, Arizona St. are in favor you better CYOA because you could get left behind and watch the others form a new conference.

[East Coast Mustang]

Here's the challenge for all you thinking that UT goes to the SEC-find one Texas insider who thinks Texas wants anything to do with the SEC.

Would the money not suffice? The SEC is already second only to the Big Ten in TV revenue, and when you think about it the SEC has almost no major media markets now (Atlanta and that's about it) compared to the other major conferences. So throw in Tex. and A&M w/ DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio markets and that's a boatload of cash.

[huskerpony]

Stallion--I'm hearing the first move from Texas will be to see if they can still maintain a viable Big 12 by back-filling the three open spots before they would move to another conference. Some combination of BYU, Cincinnati, Louisville, or Memphis. Any validity to that?

[Sewanee Stang]

If the Big 12 crumbles, UT should go independent and then negotiate its own contract like Notre Dame does. UT could play 9 home games it its own stadium and add away games in places which are pleasing to its fan base such as USC, Michigan, Stanford, Navy, etc.. They could possible set up a home and home with Notre Dame. This might yield the most money and possibly the most prestige. They also could play OU, A&M and Arkansas annually to keep with tradition.

I'm sure they could find another conference for the other sports if necessary.

[EastStang]

My premise is that Texas and A&M stay put in the Big XII and that the SEC wants to start poaching Texas. Would they want to pay UT and A&M top dollar to get a foothold in Texas, or would they look for bargains in big markets, like SMU, TCU, Rice, or UH. I think they'd look at bargains. I agree with Stallion that UT faithful are looking west. But again, will the PAC 10 want to pay a diva like the Whorns? That's the billion dollar question.