BIG EXPANSION NEWS ON RIVALS

[SoCal_Pony]

"I agree, but in the end, will our wealthy alumni make up for our lack of a fanbase and presence in the DFW market? Is Carl Sewell going to cut a $20 million check to the MWC?"

I would make the argument that if SMU is left behind and Baylor and TCU are in BCS conferences, the loss to the SMU "Brand" will be far greater than $20M.

In time, I could see TCU surpassing us academically.

I would put the NPV loss at over $100M.

[ponyboy]

I always have a very hard time figuring out your point, SoCal. But let me try.

You're saying that if Baylor stays in a BCS conference (they've never *not* been in one) and TCU either finds themselves invited to a BCS conference or the MWC makes it to BCS status, then we're going to suffer significant losses. Is that your point?

[Stallion]

I have no problem understanding the guy-one of the few on the board with a clue. On the other hand Ponyboy? I'm not saying I agree with the numbers but I agree that brand recognition in a BCS Conference is worth tens of millions of dollars. Think about when you were growing up in Texas. What's the difference between very good schools like say Trinity, Austin College and SMU. SMU was and had been a member for half a century of the Big Boys-the Southwest Conference and that means something to kids growing up. There are generations of kids that do not see SMU in that same light. There is a very high number that know absolutely nothing about SMU but recognize Baylor is a member of the Big 12. And we wouldn't have seen SMU in the same light in the 50s and 60s and 70s either if SMU had not been a member of the SWC-which was considered an elite conference in its day. SMU would not be SMU without the energy and spotlite the SWC gave to a young fledgling college on a dusty plain that somehow got lucky enough to be included in its infancy in the SWC.

[Water Pony]

Oklahomian like the possibility:

http://www.newsok.com/pac-16-is-answer- ... le/3465965

[Dooby]

I have no problem understanding the guy-one of the few on the board with a clue. On the other hand Ponyboy? I'm not saying I agree with the numbers but I agree that brand recognition in a BCS Conference is worth tens of millions of dollars. Think about when you were growing up in Texas. What's the difference between very good schools like say Trinity, Austin College and SMU. SMU was and had been a member for half a century of the Big Boys-the Southwest Conference and that means something to kids growing up. There are generations of kids that do not see SMU in that same light. There is a very high number that know absolutely nothing about SMU but recognize Baylor is a member of the Big 12. And we wouldn't have seen SMU in the same light in the 50s and 60s and 70s either if SMU had not been a member of the SWC-which was considered an elite conference in its day.

Yeah, but under no scenario will we be in the same conference as Texas or A&M. Even if the MWC goes to 12 or 16 and includes SMU, we are still in a second-fiddle conference in Texas. Dollar-wise and recruit -wise, it won't compare. Baylor might be about to find this out in a big way.

[ponyboy]

So he's saying that being in a BCS conference is a good thing from a financial standpoint.

Deep.

[Topper]

Bringing the conversation back to SMU, it is really hard to devine how all of this will affect our school. I do take comfort in one thing though. . .SMU has seen this movie twice before in the past 20 years. We got caught napping when the SWC split up and again when the Super-WAC split up. Whether or not we have any control over our destiny here, I am confident that President Turner, Steve Orsini, and the Board are being as proactive as they can to make sure SMU doesn't get hosed again. One thing that has consistently impressed me about SMU over the years is the ability of our school to achive very impressive things when we don't have our collective heads up our asses. When fully mobilized, SMU can bring some heavy artillery to the table. At the very least, our powerful and wealthy alumni network has shown that it can punch above its weight when needed (see Ford Stadium, Steve Orsini, June Jones, etc.).

Am I nervous?. . .hell yes I am. But I also take comfort in knowing that our current President, Board, and AD are top notch and firing on all cylinders. That's something we could not say for SMU in the previous rounds of conference realignment.

I agree that our President, AD, and Trustees are committed to making the best of this situation, but I'm pessimistic. You were kind to say that we were asleep when the SWC broke up. I think the truth is that the powers that be back in those days really didnt give a darn.

Go Mustangs!

[SoCal_Pony]

I make the argument that over time, if TCU goes BCS and SMU is left with Sunbelt associates, TCU could very easily in time surpass us academically for the reasons Stallion stated. I happen to think the odds are at a minimum 40%. Look at our student body, we are not talking about Rice here.

Question to you or anyone else...if TCU does indeed surpass us academically as 'The School' of the DFW metroplex, what is the loss in $$$ to the SMU brand.

I place it at $100M. You or others may place it at a lower number.

Bigger point is the stakes are extremely high, there is more at play here than just football.

[Eddie P]

Don't worry. We have 3 jedi in kansas city and and 5 in san fran. I will let you know when something is decided.

Thanks!

[ponyboy]

...if TCU goes BCS and SMU is left with Sunbelt associates...

Thanks for more detail. I would argue that it doesn't matter what TCU or Baylor does.

But I do agree completely that if we downgrade our current conference situation, the effects will be significant. And, yes, there is risk that that will occur. There are also good chances that we remain the same or improve our current conference situation.

You are also right that we need to be ready to lay down some cash or promise infrastructure upgrades should the opportunity to improve our lot arise. I'm just not sure whether we're going to have the opportunity to buy up.

[Stallion]

The risk being SMU could be left in a conference that might look something like this SMU, Rice, NTSU, UTEP, Tulsa, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, Arkansas St, New Mexico St. and hopefully maybe Southern Miss. The result would probably also mean little national TV coverage, more regional/local TV and fewer and less prominent bowls

[ponyboy]

Yes, that'd be a downgrade.

[Hoop Fan]

we better do anything we can to be included in a respectable league,even if it means putting a second mortage on the entire damn campus. This might be the big bang, the last dance that decides it all. There is no tomorrow. Hope we overachieve this time, but with the exception of Orsini, this is the same cast of characters driving the bus since the SWC broke up. Hope they learned alot from all the experience.

[Nacho]

i never saw one single post anywhere that predicted those six schools would go to the pac 10. good luck predicting the future.

[Stallion]

there have been plenty of posts on here over the last several months stating that was a pretty damn good possibility-basically Texas could choose who they want to fill up an Eastern Division of the PAC. Here's a post by a stinking genuis about a month ago.


by Stallion » Sat May 08, 2010 10:54 am

When you get down to it-the PAC expansion I forsee just involves trading Baylor for Colorado and ( perhaps OSU for Utah) and keeping the Big 12 South together. Very little change. Nobody down here gives a damn about the Big 12 North-they'd just as soon play the Arizona, California schools as the Big 12 North schools. Nobody wants to play Iowa St or the Northeast schools.
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by Stallion » Mon May 10, 2010 2:27 pm

I'm not sure I know-too many assumptions but I don't think Big 12 would recover from losing Missouri, Colorado and Nebraska. I think Texas looks West and insists on taking at least 3-5 teams with it. That will leave the Big 12 Leftovers with 4-6 schools. Leftovers could reform-but how big do they want to go? 9,10, 12 or 14 schools?

then consider:

BYU
TCU
Utah(if not already PAC)
UH
Colorado St
Air Force

Obviously, it would be in SMU's interest for the Leftover Conference to go to at least 12 for Championship. The problem I forsee is those Mountain Schools may just want to merge with the Best of the WAC.
Last edited by Stallion on Mon May 10, 2010 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.