Did SMU keep TCU out of BCS?

[indianmustang]

TCU could state case for BCS bowl had it not lost to Mustangs


10:46 PM CST on Wednesday, November 9, 2005

By CALVIN WATKINS / The Dallas Morning News

For all of TCU's accomplishments this season, one nagging question lingers.

What if TCU had not lost to SMU?

Would the Horned Frogs be ranked among the top 12 teams eligible for a BCS bowl worth close to $18 million?

Jeff Sagarin, whose computer ratings factor into the BCS formula, believes so.

Jerry Palm, who analyzes the BCS rankings, agrees.

Tom Luicci and Lee Roy Selmon, two voters in the Harris Interactive Poll, which counts as one-third of the BCS formula, say the Frogs would have been ranked higher.

All this has made TCU, No. 17 in the BCS rankings, wonder what might have been, and their biggest rival, SMU, happy for the upset victory.

"That one loss to SMU has tainted their season," said Luicci, who covers national college football for the Newark Star-Ledger. "I'm not alone in that belief. But that's what happens with the nonBCS conferences."

For now, 9-1 TCU is probably relegated to a bowl game worth a fraction of a BCS bowl.

"I'm not closing any doors to any bowl game," TCU coach Gary Patterson said.

"With two weeks of the football season left, I think there's a chance for some people to lose some major ball games."

As winners of the Mountain West, TCU is eligible for one of the three bowls aligned to the western-based conference. The Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas bowl has the first option on the MWC champion with a payout of $800,000.

The Frogs can opt out if the MWC has three or more teams eligible for a bowl berth. If that happens, TCU is looking at playing in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl that has a payout of $1.35 million. Liberty Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl officials have spoken with TCU officials about playing in either game. The EV1.net Houston Bowl also has expressed interest.

The winner of the Conference USA title game plays an at-large opponent in the Liberty Bowl. TCU would play a Pac 10 team in the Las Vegas bowl.

TCU's goal to become the second nonBCS team to play in a big-money bowl appears to be a long shot.

Danny Morrison, TCU's athletic director, said he won't politick voters to get moved up in the polls.

"The luxury we have is if we get more than three bowl eligible teams, which I think we will," he said. "It does provide us with options."


MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DMN
TCU's early-season loss to SMU still eats away at Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson, but he hasn't given up hope of slipping into the BCS picture.
Last season, Utah became the first nonBCS team to play in a BCS bowl game – the Fiesta Bowl – by finishing sixth in the final standings with a 12-0 record.

"The thing that helped Utah is that they destroyed every team they played," Palm said. "They didn't have a scare in the fourth quarter the whole year. You have to be impressed with that sort of effect."

Palm said the key for TCU is the Harris Poll, which has TCU at 18. He believes TCU would be much higher if not for the loss.

TCU has not dominated every team. It picked up a season-opening upset win at Oklahoma and a conference home-opening win in overtime against Utah. But the Frogs won in overtime at BYU and rallied in the fourth quarter to win at San Diego State.

What also helped the Utes is that the Mountain West Conference was considered much stronger last year than this year, according to Sagarin and Palm, who agree the 21-10 loss to SMU stings.

When Sagarin computed his ELO-CHESS rankings as if TCU had beaten SMU, 28-21, TCU rose all the way to No. 4. Today, Sagarin's computer model ranks TCU at No. 21. TCU's average computer rank is 15.


MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DMN
TCU's Jared Retkofsky and SMU's Don Ieremia-Stansbury argue, but the Mustangs were the clear winner.
When Patterson was asked if he thought about the financial loss of the SMU game, his reply was quick. "Every night."

Patterson and TCU players view the SMU loss as a missed opportunity. TCU quarterback Tye Gunn had an uncharacteristic three interceptions against SMU. TCU also missed three field goals that night. In the other nine games, TCU has missed only two field goals. Patterson blamed the loss on a poor week of practice following the upset of Oklahoma.

Morrison said the SMU loss might have actually helped focus TCU on the rest of the season.

Should the Frogs win their regular-season finale against UNLV on Saturday, their record would be 10-1, keeping the door open for the BCS should multiple upsets occur.

The bottom line is TCU most likely is headed to Las Vegas near Christmas Day or Memphis on New Year's Eve thanks to the SMU loss.

"I'm sure every morning that TCU wakes up, they collectively wonder how in the world that happened," said Lamar Hunt, a trustee on the SMU board. "The way their season has gone, wouldn't that be ironic if that's the only loss for the whole year?"

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BCS payday not what you might think

TCU remains a long shot for a BCS bowl berth. Should it happen, the Horned Frogs would become the second nonBCS school to play in a BCS bowl game. Utah, which played in the Fiesta Bowl last season, was the first.

But the big payday that nonBCS schools claim by playing in a high-priced money bowl game is deceiving.

Utah's Fiesta Bowl payout was listed as $14 million. Instead, Utah took home an estimated $3 million to $4 million, according to conference officials. Each team in the Mountain West received at least $1 million from Utah playing in a BCS bowl.

The money given to teams that reach postseason play are sent to the conference office. In the Mountain West's case, only the teams that qualified for a bowl split up a percentage of the bowl revenue. The conference pays a portion of each team's expenses before the bowl money is distributed.

If there is any excess money, after travel and ticket expenses, then the remaining non bowl-playing schools receive money.

Some conferences, such as Conference USA, allow all its teams to receive bowl money whether they made postseason play or not.

Should TCU not play in a BCS bowl, the Frogs could play in the Las Vegas Bowl with a payout of $800,000 or the AutoZone Liberty Bowl with a $1.35 million payout. Those payouts would also go to the conference office before TCU gets its share.

In the case of the Las Vegas Bowl, TCU is only guaranteed $175,000. The Liberty Bowl guarantee is yet to be determined. In some cases, a bowl team's expenses are greater than the minimum guarantee.

Calvin Watkins


RATING THE FROGS

At 9-1, TCU is a long shot for a BCS bowl berth. Things would be different had the Horned Frogs not stumbled against SMU (3-6) in a 21-10 loss on Sept. 10. TCU's rankings tell the story:

21: in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings

18: in Harris poll

17: in the BCS standings

15: average computer ranking
4: in a computer ranking run by Sagarin based on TCU having beaten SMU, 28-21
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... 4052c.html
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[BornRed&Blue]

that the SMU defeat of TCU keeps them out of the BCS . . . BUT I would so much like for SMU to find the formula that has made TCU successful. What has made them win? What makes their students come to the games? What makes their alumni so loyal? A dear friend of min that graduated from TCU might have one answer, when she tells me, "I don't know if I get more mail from TCU or from the Republican Party, they keep me innundated with information."

[MustangSally]

Did the loss keep them from going BCS? Probably

Would they have woken up and played to their potential if they had stomped us? Maybe not.

[Frog2003]

Would they have woken up and played to their potential if they had stomped us? Maybe not.

I think thats pretty likely actually. Whether SMU fans like it or not, TCU may have been the biggest reason SMU won. I've been to, or watched, every game this year except the Wyoming game, and the effort put forth in the SMU game didn't even compare to the rest of the games. It was definitely a wake up call, and I'd bet alot of money that we don't come back against Utah and/or BYU if we don't lose to SMU. TCU has a pretty young team this year overall, and they needed the wakeup call.

Regardless though, the loss still hurts. But not near as much as missing a bowl completely last year.

[SMU Football Blog]

Before the game a lot of us were pointing out that it was a real trap game for TCU and I think some people are forgetting that.

9/3 On the road against (then) top 10 OU;
9/10 On the road (sorta) to SMU;
9/15 Home against BCS Utah.

[Spaz]

Did we keep TCU out of the BCS? YES
And that's a story you should all tell you kids every Christmas...

[MustangSally]

Another way to look at this: Did the TCU game save Bennett?

[HFvictory]

And SMU gets in the lead article in the DMN Sports section.

[The PonyGrad]

If SMU wins out then TCUs ranking will improve. I guess the frogs should be cheering for us.

[Metropolis777]

If SMU wins out then TCUs ranking will improve. I guess the frogs should be cheering for us.

Truth is most of us are always cheering for SMU aside from when they play us. I really wish y'all hadn't blown games against Baylor, Marshall, and ECU. We want nothing more than to see this game really mean something for both teams.

I suppose y'all can take 2005 as revenge for 1997 when our winless team kept y'all out of a bowl and doomed y'all to at least 8 more years of heartbreak.

[Hoop Fan]

Doughboy better stop disrespecting us in the papers or the Mustangs will slap him by 3 touchdowns next time.

[LawSchoolPony]

Totally agree that the Froggies should cheer for SMU - it would be great for the Skillet to be a big game every year.

Wasn't it TCU that beat us 7 or 8 years ago when we only needed 1 more win to be bowl eligible, and they were in the middle of a no-win season? I guess revenge is sweet!

[abezontar]

Yeah, 1997 last game of the season SMU is 6-4 and there was talk that if we won we would get an invite to the Independence bowl or some such. TCU was 0-11.....my freshman year I had such hope after that season, that loss should have given me a clue.

In regards to that, a lot of people say that in order for us to get better we have to have a winning season in order to get recruiting up, why didn't that season give us the recruits we needed to keep winning afterwards?

[PK]

Yeah, 1997 last game of the season SMU is 6-4 and there was talk that if we won we would get an invite to the Independence bowl or some such. TCU was 0-11.....my freshman year I had such hope after that season, that loss should have given me a clue.

In regards to that, a lot of people say that in order for us to get better we have to have a winning season in order to get recruiting up, why didn't that season give us the recruits we needed to keep winning afterwards?

Couldn't say for sure, but there were still major self imposed road blocks to recruiting on a level field at that time, such as having to be accepted by the university before you could make an official visit and other such nonsense.

[Sam I Am]

I distinctly recall that at the begining of the season that the SMU Blogmeister did correctly predict that TCU could be caught in a trap after playing OU and before playing Utah. And does anybody remember how many games he thought that SMU would win this season? Can he tell if the ponies can win either hte UH or UTEP game? I stick with my own original claims that anything over 3 wins would be a reach.