Did SMU keep TCU out of BCS?
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:58 pmTCU could state case for BCS bowl had it not lost to Mustangs
10:46 PM CST on Wednesday, November 9, 2005
By CALVIN WATKINS / The Dallas Morning News
For all of TCU's accomplishments this season, one nagging question lingers.
What if TCU had not lost to SMU?
Would the Horned Frogs be ranked among the top 12 teams eligible for a BCS bowl worth close to $18 million?
Jeff Sagarin, whose computer ratings factor into the BCS formula, believes so.
Jerry Palm, who analyzes the BCS rankings, agrees.
Tom Luicci and Lee Roy Selmon, two voters in the Harris Interactive Poll, which counts as one-third of the BCS formula, say the Frogs would have been ranked higher.
All this has made TCU, No. 17 in the BCS rankings, wonder what might have been, and their biggest rival, SMU, happy for the upset victory.
"That one loss to SMU has tainted their season," said Luicci, who covers national college football for the Newark Star-Ledger. "I'm not alone in that belief. But that's what happens with the nonBCS conferences."
For now, 9-1 TCU is probably relegated to a bowl game worth a fraction of a BCS bowl.
"I'm not closing any doors to any bowl game," TCU coach Gary Patterson said.
"With two weeks of the football season left, I think there's a chance for some people to lose some major ball games."
As winners of the Mountain West, TCU is eligible for one of the three bowls aligned to the western-based conference. The Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas bowl has the first option on the MWC champion with a payout of $800,000.
The Frogs can opt out if the MWC has three or more teams eligible for a bowl berth. If that happens, TCU is looking at playing in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl that has a payout of $1.35 million. Liberty Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl officials have spoken with TCU officials about playing in either game. The EV1.net Houston Bowl also has expressed interest.
The winner of the Conference USA title game plays an at-large opponent in the Liberty Bowl. TCU would play a Pac 10 team in the Las Vegas bowl.
TCU's goal to become the second nonBCS team to play in a big-money bowl appears to be a long shot.
Danny Morrison, TCU's athletic director, said he won't politick voters to get moved up in the polls.
"The luxury we have is if we get more than three bowl eligible teams, which I think we will," he said. "It does provide us with options."
MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DMN
TCU's early-season loss to SMU still eats away at Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson, but he hasn't given up hope of slipping into the BCS picture.
Last season, Utah became the first nonBCS team to play in a BCS bowl game – the Fiesta Bowl – by finishing sixth in the final standings with a 12-0 record.
"The thing that helped Utah is that they destroyed every team they played," Palm said. "They didn't have a scare in the fourth quarter the whole year. You have to be impressed with that sort of effect."
Palm said the key for TCU is the Harris Poll, which has TCU at 18. He believes TCU would be much higher if not for the loss.
TCU has not dominated every team. It picked up a season-opening upset win at Oklahoma and a conference home-opening win in overtime against Utah. But the Frogs won in overtime at BYU and rallied in the fourth quarter to win at San Diego State.
What also helped the Utes is that the Mountain West Conference was considered much stronger last year than this year, according to Sagarin and Palm, who agree the 21-10 loss to SMU stings.
When Sagarin computed his ELO-CHESS rankings as if TCU had beaten SMU, 28-21, TCU rose all the way to No. 4. Today, Sagarin's computer model ranks TCU at No. 21. TCU's average computer rank is 15.
MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DMN
TCU's Jared Retkofsky and SMU's Don Ieremia-Stansbury argue, but the Mustangs were the clear winner.
When Patterson was asked if he thought about the financial loss of the SMU game, his reply was quick. "Every night."
Patterson and TCU players view the SMU loss as a missed opportunity. TCU quarterback Tye Gunn had an uncharacteristic three interceptions against SMU. TCU also missed three field goals that night. In the other nine games, TCU has missed only two field goals. Patterson blamed the loss on a poor week of practice following the upset of Oklahoma.
Morrison said the SMU loss might have actually helped focus TCU on the rest of the season.
Should the Frogs win their regular-season finale against UNLV on Saturday, their record would be 10-1, keeping the door open for the BCS should multiple upsets occur.
The bottom line is TCU most likely is headed to Las Vegas near Christmas Day or Memphis on New Year's Eve thanks to the SMU loss.
"I'm sure every morning that TCU wakes up, they collectively wonder how in the world that happened," said Lamar Hunt, a trustee on the SMU board. "The way their season has gone, wouldn't that be ironic if that's the only loss for the whole year?"
E-mail [email protected]
BCS payday not what you might think
TCU remains a long shot for a BCS bowl berth. Should it happen, the Horned Frogs would become the second nonBCS school to play in a BCS bowl game. Utah, which played in the Fiesta Bowl last season, was the first.
But the big payday that nonBCS schools claim by playing in a high-priced money bowl game is deceiving.
Utah's Fiesta Bowl payout was listed as $14 million. Instead, Utah took home an estimated $3 million to $4 million, according to conference officials. Each team in the Mountain West received at least $1 million from Utah playing in a BCS bowl.
The money given to teams that reach postseason play are sent to the conference office. In the Mountain West's case, only the teams that qualified for a bowl split up a percentage of the bowl revenue. The conference pays a portion of each team's expenses before the bowl money is distributed.
If there is any excess money, after travel and ticket expenses, then the remaining non bowl-playing schools receive money.
Some conferences, such as Conference USA, allow all its teams to receive bowl money whether they made postseason play or not.
Should TCU not play in a BCS bowl, the Frogs could play in the Las Vegas Bowl with a payout of $800,000 or the AutoZone Liberty Bowl with a $1.35 million payout. Those payouts would also go to the conference office before TCU gets its share.
In the case of the Las Vegas Bowl, TCU is only guaranteed $175,000. The Liberty Bowl guarantee is yet to be determined. In some cases, a bowl team's expenses are greater than the minimum guarantee.
Calvin Watkins
RATING THE FROGS
At 9-1, TCU is a long shot for a BCS bowl berth. Things would be different had the Horned Frogs not stumbled against SMU (3-6) in a 21-10 loss on Sept. 10. TCU's rankings tell the story:
21: in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings
18: in Harris poll
17: in the BCS standings
15: average computer ranking
4: in a computer ranking run by Sagarin based on TCU having beaten SMU, 28-21
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... 4052c.html
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10:46 PM CST on Wednesday, November 9, 2005
By CALVIN WATKINS / The Dallas Morning News
For all of TCU's accomplishments this season, one nagging question lingers.
What if TCU had not lost to SMU?
Would the Horned Frogs be ranked among the top 12 teams eligible for a BCS bowl worth close to $18 million?
Jeff Sagarin, whose computer ratings factor into the BCS formula, believes so.
Jerry Palm, who analyzes the BCS rankings, agrees.
Tom Luicci and Lee Roy Selmon, two voters in the Harris Interactive Poll, which counts as one-third of the BCS formula, say the Frogs would have been ranked higher.
All this has made TCU, No. 17 in the BCS rankings, wonder what might have been, and their biggest rival, SMU, happy for the upset victory.
"That one loss to SMU has tainted their season," said Luicci, who covers national college football for the Newark Star-Ledger. "I'm not alone in that belief. But that's what happens with the nonBCS conferences."
For now, 9-1 TCU is probably relegated to a bowl game worth a fraction of a BCS bowl.
"I'm not closing any doors to any bowl game," TCU coach Gary Patterson said.
"With two weeks of the football season left, I think there's a chance for some people to lose some major ball games."
As winners of the Mountain West, TCU is eligible for one of the three bowls aligned to the western-based conference. The Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas bowl has the first option on the MWC champion with a payout of $800,000.
The Frogs can opt out if the MWC has three or more teams eligible for a bowl berth. If that happens, TCU is looking at playing in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl that has a payout of $1.35 million. Liberty Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl officials have spoken with TCU officials about playing in either game. The EV1.net Houston Bowl also has expressed interest.
The winner of the Conference USA title game plays an at-large opponent in the Liberty Bowl. TCU would play a Pac 10 team in the Las Vegas bowl.
TCU's goal to become the second nonBCS team to play in a big-money bowl appears to be a long shot.
Danny Morrison, TCU's athletic director, said he won't politick voters to get moved up in the polls.
"The luxury we have is if we get more than three bowl eligible teams, which I think we will," he said. "It does provide us with options."
MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DMN
TCU's early-season loss to SMU still eats away at Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson, but he hasn't given up hope of slipping into the BCS picture.
Last season, Utah became the first nonBCS team to play in a BCS bowl game – the Fiesta Bowl – by finishing sixth in the final standings with a 12-0 record.
"The thing that helped Utah is that they destroyed every team they played," Palm said. "They didn't have a scare in the fourth quarter the whole year. You have to be impressed with that sort of effect."
Palm said the key for TCU is the Harris Poll, which has TCU at 18. He believes TCU would be much higher if not for the loss.
TCU has not dominated every team. It picked up a season-opening upset win at Oklahoma and a conference home-opening win in overtime against Utah. But the Frogs won in overtime at BYU and rallied in the fourth quarter to win at San Diego State.
What also helped the Utes is that the Mountain West Conference was considered much stronger last year than this year, according to Sagarin and Palm, who agree the 21-10 loss to SMU stings.
When Sagarin computed his ELO-CHESS rankings as if TCU had beaten SMU, 28-21, TCU rose all the way to No. 4. Today, Sagarin's computer model ranks TCU at No. 21. TCU's average computer rank is 15.
MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DMN
TCU's Jared Retkofsky and SMU's Don Ieremia-Stansbury argue, but the Mustangs were the clear winner.
When Patterson was asked if he thought about the financial loss of the SMU game, his reply was quick. "Every night."
Patterson and TCU players view the SMU loss as a missed opportunity. TCU quarterback Tye Gunn had an uncharacteristic three interceptions against SMU. TCU also missed three field goals that night. In the other nine games, TCU has missed only two field goals. Patterson blamed the loss on a poor week of practice following the upset of Oklahoma.
Morrison said the SMU loss might have actually helped focus TCU on the rest of the season.
Should the Frogs win their regular-season finale against UNLV on Saturday, their record would be 10-1, keeping the door open for the BCS should multiple upsets occur.
The bottom line is TCU most likely is headed to Las Vegas near Christmas Day or Memphis on New Year's Eve thanks to the SMU loss.
"I'm sure every morning that TCU wakes up, they collectively wonder how in the world that happened," said Lamar Hunt, a trustee on the SMU board. "The way their season has gone, wouldn't that be ironic if that's the only loss for the whole year?"
E-mail [email protected]
BCS payday not what you might think
TCU remains a long shot for a BCS bowl berth. Should it happen, the Horned Frogs would become the second nonBCS school to play in a BCS bowl game. Utah, which played in the Fiesta Bowl last season, was the first.
But the big payday that nonBCS schools claim by playing in a high-priced money bowl game is deceiving.
Utah's Fiesta Bowl payout was listed as $14 million. Instead, Utah took home an estimated $3 million to $4 million, according to conference officials. Each team in the Mountain West received at least $1 million from Utah playing in a BCS bowl.
The money given to teams that reach postseason play are sent to the conference office. In the Mountain West's case, only the teams that qualified for a bowl split up a percentage of the bowl revenue. The conference pays a portion of each team's expenses before the bowl money is distributed.
If there is any excess money, after travel and ticket expenses, then the remaining non bowl-playing schools receive money.
Some conferences, such as Conference USA, allow all its teams to receive bowl money whether they made postseason play or not.
Should TCU not play in a BCS bowl, the Frogs could play in the Las Vegas Bowl with a payout of $800,000 or the AutoZone Liberty Bowl with a $1.35 million payout. Those payouts would also go to the conference office before TCU gets its share.
In the case of the Las Vegas Bowl, TCU is only guaranteed $175,000. The Liberty Bowl guarantee is yet to be determined. In some cases, a bowl team's expenses are greater than the minimum guarantee.
Calvin Watkins
RATING THE FROGS
At 9-1, TCU is a long shot for a BCS bowl berth. Things would be different had the Horned Frogs not stumbled against SMU (3-6) in a 21-10 loss on Sept. 10. TCU's rankings tell the story:
21: in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings
18: in Harris poll
17: in the BCS standings
15: average computer ranking
4: in a computer ranking run by Sagarin based on TCU having beaten SMU, 28-21
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... 4052c.html
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