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SMU rated No. 119 in the country and expected to go 0-8 in conference and 2-10 on the year with even a loss to 1-11 ECU. Guess he doesn't think those 'sure wins" in Denton, New Orleans, Greenville, El Paso, and Houston will be quite so easy as 95% on this board. Even some of SMU's home games like UAB, UH and Marshall are counted as a loss. I think we will hover around 6-6 depending on the road games maybe better maybe worse if we don't win those 'sure wins" on the road which I do believe too many on here are discounting much too lightly. BTW according to his rating the Home team advantage is worth 3.75 points.

Want to provide a link, cause I can't find what you are talking about on Sagarin's website or through google

Edit: Found it.

I saw it on the CUSA board-I think it was USA Today.

Eh, it'll just make that 8-4 season all that much better.

They are a bit of a rear view mirror vs windshield group historically.

So, since Sagarin is gospel according to Stallion, you thing Georgia Southern would beat UTEP?

I think I have discussed Sagarin about dozen times, here and on the blog. It is interesting, but beyond the top 30 or so it gets ridiculous. I am not even sure how he rates teams before they play a game because he doesn't look at individual players' stats; who leaves and stays year to year. Therefore, I don't know how he can say a team will be better one year than another. I guess it is a simulation based on last year's numbers.

Anyway, these rankings get tossed after week three or four. Also, one year I did a weekly football pool largely using Sagarin when I didn't have a good feel one way or the other-I didn't do too well.

Long story short, it doesn't mean much more than anything else.

This bowl season talk this early is [deleted].

And yea, and those preseason top 25 AP polls are so accurate. They should toss that out the window until week 3. Totally meaningless and stupid.

The sargrain ratings should be considered a joke.

Of course these early ratings are not to be paid much attention to, even he explains that. What upsets me is Stallion's negativity and happiness to spread any bad news. Poor guy, but I have to admit it gets to me.

Notice how the only win in SMU's favor - according to Sagarin - is not mentioned by name. But I think we all know it's Sam Houston State, right?

Sagarin's initial ratings are based on teams past performance over the past few years. For a team on the rise, like SMU, it is better to use the end of year ratings from last season and go from there vs. Sagarin's initial rating.

The Sagriin Ratings have been posted before each and every SMU game for the last 10 years. Almost all Football fans have at least a curiousity in them. How is that being negative? I said I expect them to win about 4 more game than he predicts. Oh I get it if you aren't among the 95% who predict a Bowl Game then you 're being negative. What's it like to go through life afraid of information.

westexSMU wrote:The sargrain ratings should be considered a joke.

I'm sure if you looked at historical ratings over the last 20 years Sagarin pretty much pegged SMU's performance during that time.

Sagarin is a nitwit in many ways, but he's right to assume that we're not going to roll into El Paso and come out with a win. UTEP moved the ball at will against us last year, and if they hadn't turned it over a few hundred times would have beaten us. We all remmber Haywood's INT and Lindley planting Higgins a couple of times, but UTEP was at least as good, if not better, that day. That was one of those games coaches talk about when we "figured out a way to win." We're going to need to play damn-near perfect football that day to win.

I don't know who called any of the games "sure wins." As for my opinion, there is no such thing as a "sure" win. But I will say we'll beat UNT, Sam Houston State, Arkansas State, Tulane, UAB, Marshall and Rice .... which makes us 7-5. But no, there are no "sure" wins. There's a difference between optimism and wishful thinking.

Stallion wrote:What's it like to go through life afraid of information.

What's it like to go thru life being perceived as a negative sourpuss?