Rice Win the Key to "Auto" Bowl Bid?

[bagice]

Looking at the possibility we could get shut out of a bowl even with 7 wins I took it upon myself to do some analysis and forecasting.

Houston and Tulsa are in since they already have 7 wins.

A lot of people are counting ECU as in with a 6-4 record but I think they have a tough task. They play at Rice and at NC State. They could certainly lose both those games. Here is where we need to count on Rice. I see it as critical that Rice win this game and force ECU to win a game on the road against NC State to be bowl eligible, a tall task for them.

USM has home games against UAB and Marshall, figure they will win one of these two at least, they are bowling.

UTEP finishes at Marshall and Memphis at home. They need both, but Memphis is a gimmie. Would be a big help to SMU if Marshall beats them and makes it impossible to get to 7 wins.


To me, our best shot at a near lock bid would be for SMU to beat Tulsa and Rice to beat ECU. This would set up a showdown in Houston with Rice and SMU both at 6-5. I could certainly see the NO Bowl there to hand out an immediate bid to the winner of this game. Whoever wins, they would have an interesting storyline to market and this bowl does not really care about attendance, its all about TV.

If Rice beats ECU and/or Marshall beats UTEP, then at least one 6-6 team will go bowling and maybe even two 6-6 teams, so we could still do it at 6-6.

But no matter what happens to us this Saturday, it is just as important that Rice wins. Even if we lose, that keeps our hopes alive one more week.

Go OWLS!!!!!

[J.T.supporta]

Why would you want RICE to win??? I slightly understand what you mean but if RICE wins the are Bowl Eligible. You should want them to lose, unless you're smoking crack. SMU, UTEP, RICE, and Marshall are fighting for that last bowl bid.

If Rice beats ECU then we are going to have a huge controversy about who the last team in should be. Why would you want more bowl eligible teams in our conference??? Put down that crack pipe and think.

The only way we go bowling is win out. there is a slight chance with 6-6 but that means USM would have to lose their last 2 games and let the bowl committee pick either us or them. A Rice win puts them won step closer and gives them momentum for their last home game against us. If ECU loses their last 2 and we go 6-6, that leaves ECU, Rice, and us at 6-6. why would you want for them to pick between 3 teams instead of 2? Remember ECU beat us so if we were both tied at .500 I don't think we would get in.

UH 8-3
TU 7-3
ECU 6-4
USM 6-4
UTEP 5-5
SMU 5-5
Rice 5-5
Marsh 4-6

Conference records are tie breakers when picking between 2 or more 6-6 teams. So why would you want the owls to win? just makes it harder for us. BEST CHANCE FOR US: WIN OUT... we still have a chance to get it but, Rice NEEDS to lose 2, Marshall loses 1 or 2, UTEP 2...even if UTEP split their last 2 there is still a shot for us.

Don't cheer for the OWLS, Don't cheer for the Miners, CHEER FOR SMU!

[bagice]

Ummm,

You are the one smoking crack. If ECU wins they are bowl eligible for sure. If Rice beats them, then neither have 7 wins increasing our chances that there could be more 6-6 teams. If Rice beats ECU and Marshall beats UTEP, then there is a very good chance that two 6-6 teams will go bowling.

Either way, it is to our benefit for Rice to win and keep ECU away from 7 wins, pratically assuring themselves a spot.

[SMU Football Blog]

Well, one of So. Miss or ECU is going to a bowl. Not sure, but I think the GMAC is going to have to take the loser of the C-USA Championship game

[J.T.supporta]

ok ok...look at it like this. If us, ecu, rice, and utep finish 6-6 and tulsa, houston, and usm are in bowls ... ecu would be chosen over us because they beat us. you don't want more teams to be eligible in our conference, which means you want rice to lose.

if somehow we lose to tulsa, and utep loses to marhsall, this happens:

smu 5-6, rice 6-5, ecu 6-5, utep 5-6, marshall 5-6. You don't want that to happen because no way in hell I see utep losing to memphis making utep 6-6 going bowling and if we beat rice and and ecu loses to ncst, us and ecu are 6-6 waiting ofr that last bowl slot. ecu gets in because they beat us. utep would play in fw, ecu would play in n.o....

so you don't want rice to win.
Just look at it like this, the fewer teams that are bowl eligible helps us out more. it is better for us if rice loses because no matter what happens on saturday, we beat a 5-6 rice team next week, knocking them out completely.

TRUST ME, YOU DON'T WANT RICE TO WIN.

[bagice]

Looking at likely scenarios,

Houston, Tulsa, and USM either have at least 7 wins or will by the season end. Those 3 spots are taken.

If ECU beats Rice they are a lock as well and that leaves one spot between SMU and UTEP and if UTEP beats Marshall we are almost certainly shut out.

If SMU did make it to 7-5, who could we bump? Certainly not Houston or ECU, because they will both be in the championship game. Certainly not UTEP, they have the biggest fan base in the C-USA and would be preferred over us. USM? the only bowl we would be ahead of them would be the Ft. Worth bowl, which is a longshot. The most likely choice would be the NO bowl and they would take USM over us because they are closer and have a bigger fan base that travels. That leaves Tulsa, if all things were equal, we may be preferred over them, but they most likely will have 8 wins if they beat Tulane, giving them a better record than us, plus they were champs last year, hard to see them getting overlooked.

All these factors makes me want Rice to win. If you think that our best shot of going to bowl is going 7-5, then Rice winning pratically assures us of a spot if we do. If you still want a chance to go bowling at 6-6, then Rice has to beat ECU.

[The PonyGrad]

I don't think ECU would be picked over SMU because they beat us, it does not work that way but they would likely be picked by any bowl except perhaps the FW bowl because they would travel better.

[J.T.supporta]

ok, lets just agree to disagree on this one then....come saturday we will see if this all matters because if we don't win against Tulsa our season is over.

All that matters is WE BEAT TULSA!

[bagice]

I can agree with that!

Go Ponies!

[Billy Joe]

It also could snow in July but it ain't happening. SMU loses to Tulsa and Rice. Bennett is fired. And a new coach shows up talking about how he is going to turn this program around. Been there done that. I hope my prediction is proven wrong and SMU makes a bowl game. I also hope to win the lottery.