PonyFans.com

From what I can tell Duke and NC are firmly opposed to expansion. NC State is also opposed therefore even though Miami wants to go to the ACC they are being blocked.

My guess is that NC State will eventually get religion and favor expansion. It's possible that the ACC may not go for Miami but some for some other BE schools.

SMU along with Rice and Tulsa will then enter C-USA when all is said and done.

Addition:

NC may be the one to change its vote, not NC State.

Miami's athletic department lost $1.5 million in 01-02 therby prompting its desire to go to the AC.

It looks to me like the ACC is in a box. Either they expand to 12 taking Miami, or the BE retaliates and cherry picks the ACC's top teams. That could result in the ACC being dead for football. Certainly not BCS any more. And like the other non-BCS conferences, losing money big time in football.

And who exactly is the ACC's top programs that the Big East would cherry-pick? Florida State is the only possibility, really. There's no way that any of the four NC schools, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Maryland or Clemson are going to bolt to the Big East and lose all their big-time college hoops playing each other.
Yet your other point is valid - in that without Fla. State, the ACC probably loses its guaranteed BCS spot.

If they take Florida State, thats probably enough. But why would Clemson or Georgia Tech, or Virginia, or Maryland want to stay in a non-BCS conference if they could remain BCS in the BE? Both are good basketball conferences.

The discussion from the Denver Post is well reasoned with a western spin; what happens to Pac 10, while Conf. USA backfills from the WAC after key losses to Big East, who survives in this scenario.

<A HREF="http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~87~1383775,00.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~87~1383775,00.html</A>

Alternatively, Big East disappears from football and survives as a basketball only conference by adding Conf. USA BB schools only, e.g. Marquette, DePaul, etc.