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Assuming three Big East schools defect, I do not see the Big East imploding. The member universities have far too much equity in the Big East brand to suddenly launch new conferences based on armchair commissioner reports. Why blow up the brand identity of a conference that owns the major northeast markets? With that said, let me be a complete hypocrite and put on the commissioner's cap for a moment...

Holding all variables, in 2006 the Big East would be left with five all-sports schools, and six that do not participate in Big East football. I think the likely scenario is the addition of a single all-sports school (Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, etc.) to round out a 12-school, 2-division Big East.

The conference will then add 2-3 football-only affiliates (Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple, South Florida, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Army, Navy, etc.) to give the conference an 8 or 9 school league.

It really doesn't matter who the Big East adds, the conference isn't going to improve or hurt its leverage with the BCS after Miami, Syracuse and either BC or Virginia Tech leave. Also, because of its fan base in the major northeast markets, the Big East would still leverage 5 bowl bids and a TV contract more lucrative than any current non-BCS deal. The Big East doesn't distribute its revenue evenly, so the all-sports schools could maintain a richer dividend than they would be able to leverage with a new partnership in newly launched conferences.

My guess is that Louisville will be given an all-sports membership; Marshall will be given a football-only membership because they are competitive; while South Florida and Central Florida will be given football-only membership to maintain the Big East schools' presence in Florida.

WEST: Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Seton Hall, West Virginia
EAST: Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Virginia Tech

FOOTBALL: Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Marshall, South Florida, Central Florida
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On a separate note - other variables that complicate the creation of new conferences are the new Division 1A status rules that kick-in in 2004. A lot of the schools we speculate on will not be in Division 1A in 2006. Some for attendance, some for (lack of) participation, and some will be excluded for financial reasons (scholarships, etc).

Look for the Big East to go on the offensive at their meeting this week. Problem is, I don't see what they can do to generate more revenue for the conference and that's what Miami needs to hear. Simple economics dictate that anyone you invite in as an expansion move has to either increase your odds of landing another BCS participant or deliver enough new TV sets to help increase the TV contract. There's nobody out there who can do that for the Big East that isn't already sitting in a better situation today. That's the bottom line and why the world of I-A football gets absolutely wild if the ACC does expand. Everybody else will be scrambling for table scraps and the bball only schools will be tired of getting dumped on by football greed.

I look for the Big East bball schools and Notre dame to move to protect their standing as a bball conference and the Big East alliance that has been discussed might be a way of accomplishing that.

The future BE will add Marshall, Louisville, E. Carolina and Cincy.

There is a lot of talk about ACC exp. not happening but it will because Miami wants it to happen. VT, even though Va and the politicians of Va want them included, is powerless to stop it. VT is the odd man out.

I see it as highly unlikely that the ACC expansion will fall apart. Even if it does the BE may raid C-USA anyway to have a 12 member football conference. Lots of scenarios. Have to wait and see.