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No matter is Miami, Syracuse and BC go to the ACC the BE is still probably going to expand to 12 all sports members. We will know a lot more after today. I see 5 possible scenarios for SMU:

--join forces with the western C-USA for a regional conference

--Join with the western C-USA for a 12 team C-USA

--WAC expands to 12 teams adding Houston and TCU

--WAC falls apart with western schools going to MWC and SMU gets left out of the party--not my favorite scenario

--Something totally unforseen that will astound even the most pesssimistic SMU fan

What do I think will happen? I don't know but it will be something that is going to affect SMU for several years.

[This message has been edited by Nacho (edited 05-19-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Nacho (edited 05-19-2003).]

I like all your options except #4, of course.
As much as I'd like to see it, I couldn't imagine Houston and TCU coming to the WAC. They'd have a hard time putting a positive spin on it, given the bowl/TV deals the WAC has.

they may not have a choice. Ft Worth and UH are a long way from the Big East

BE currently has 8 members. If they lose 3 they will have 5. They would need to add 7 schools to reach 12 (their stated goal). That would almost certainly force a EWAC-WC-USA merger.

On the other hand if the BE does not lose the 3 schools they will need to add 4 to reach 12. In these calcuaations we are keeping Temple although the BE through them out last year--8 or 5 teams may need to be added.

Any way you cut it I think we may come out ok.

Another interesting scenario is for the SEC to add VT with the thought of going to 14 schools eventually. Some feel that 14 may be a good number for conferences. I don't know about that but it is a possibility. This could get pretty wild if VT bolts the BE and goes to the SEC. All bets would be off and whole new scenarios would come about.

[This message has been edited by Nacho (edited 05-19-2003).]

Nacho:

Good points. If the BE3 go to ACC and Big East backfills, they will lose BCS status because the replacements won't make them better than Conf. USA or Mtn. West.

Therefore, the strongest of Conf. USA East (Louisville, Cinncinnati, maybe Memphis,etc.), plus Navy, move into the Big East as a Mid-Major and Conf. USA West and WAC East merge into a reinvented Conf. USA. The balance of WAC schools go to Mtn. West and SunBelt. The net is one fewer BCS Conference.

Whether Big Ten and Pac 10 go to 12 is not critical.

Actually, the BE is at the table now. If Miami, BC and Syracuse leave, they have to get one team in the top 12 over the next four years to retain BCS status. Pitt or Va. Tech should be able to pull that off.

Actually it may be difficult for them to get to top 12 because of the way BCS rankings work. They won't have a chance to beat BC, SU or Miami anymore to score points on the scale. All I know is that SMU couldn't be much worse off. If the WAC folds through MWC expansion, independence is probably as good although scheduling becomes a large problem. Lots of early and late games with holes in the middle of the schedule which have to be filled with Rice, UTEP, Tulsa and posssibly UNC. I believe shkeups are positive right now but I wish we had another year before the spots are divvied up again.