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Depends on who you look to for spreads, but the majority are 17.5 to 18!

Line opened at 15. Did I miss something?

DBB

Vegas loves PB

smupony94 wrote:Vegas loves PB

They do, and congrats on the "Legend" status.

-Thaddeus

smupony94 wrote:Vegas loves PB

thats what she said

I am more amazed that TT is favored by 24 over UTEP. I say that in relation to the 8.5 that we had. Did SMU prove to be that bad (that is rhetorical) or did TT show that good (also rhetorical)?

mrydel wrote:I am more amazed that TT is favored by 24 over UTEP. I say that in relation to the 8.5 that we had. Did SMU prove to be that bad (that is rhetorical) or did TT show that good (also rhetorical)?

Both. Some completions (seemingly thrown up in the air and coming down to TTU) were plays not often made. And the fact that everyone watching on ESPN knew that TTU's safety valve was a quick slant and we didn't do one thing to stop it. TTU is better than expected and we prove to be more inept. Hopefully, we will correct the things we can correct and live up to Vegas' expectations.

Even an 8.5 point spread would be a close bet, so how did the odds get so high? Must be the Dallas money tipping the line. If there is one true difference between SMU and UNT is the Highland Park SES of the red and blue.

i would bet on UNT... but i dont bet against SMU... but this is a good bet that SMU might not cover... hopefully they will

Sam I Am wrote:Even an 8.5 point spread would be a close bet, so how did the odds get so high? Must be the Dallas money tipping the line. If there is one true difference between SMU and UNT is the Highland Park SES of the red and blue.

Other way around — people are betting North Texas if the line is moving this way. Vegas wants the betting to be even between the two teams. If there's a drastic move one way, the heavy money is being bet on the underdog. The theory is that if the line grows enough, the bettors will go back to about a 50-50 split, at which point Vegas makes money on every bet and doesn't risk a monster payout if the winning team has a large majority of the money bet on it.

that 8.5 line was way way too low. I think it was a result of the relatively close games played against SMU in Dallas-games I don't think Tech took too terribly serious. Tech is at least 18-20 points better than SMU even at home.

"No, they're only 16 points better."
"No way, they're 23 points better."
"Actually, they're 40 points better."
"Really, they're only 8-10 points better."

18-20? What is that completely arbitrary guess based on? Opinion?

The line is not set by how much better a team is than its opponent. It's set based on betting action — it's set so that ideally, 50 percent of the bets will be placed on each team. The sportsbooks make their money, and it covers the payouts. That's why pretty-good-but-unheralded teams (like Boise State, at least before last year's bowl game) often are favored by just a few points, and then they come out and obliterate teams. They're good, they're MUCH better than an opponent, but nobody knew last year who Jared Zabransky and Ian Johnson were. There was some vague admission that Boise State was pretty good, but few outside of the WAC schools' areas knew just how good. They'll have bigger lines this year, because people now know Boise State is.

Backwards odds handicapping I believe is the correct term.

They absolutely protect the back-in, but people in Vegas know a lot more than we do...yeah the TT spread was stupid..but they were basing it on history in the series at Ford, with what was supposed to be a better team.

I never bet on the ponies and never will...but both of these spreads might make me a betting man.

DBB