What I think and why

Let me qualify: I don't know anything at all. But based on all the information currently floating around out there, RIGHT NOW I think the most likely candidates are as follows:
1. Highest chance - KRAGTHORPE: Makes sense. UofL fanbase is ready to burn him at the stake and rumors are swirling on their message boards that Kragthorpe is in talks with SMU (some even say with the blessing of UofL's AD). Kragthorpe seems like an Orsini-type hire. He walked into a bad situation at Tulsa and turned into a top C-USA power. His wife is from Dallas and supposedly they have never felt comfortable in Kentucky. Coach K has strong recruiting ties to Texas and has coached/recruited in Texas for the majority of his career. If he turns around SMU, he will have plenty of other BCS offers later. If he has another losing season at UofL, he will probably be out of a job and be relegated to coordinator status or worse in 2009. Neither Kragthorpe nor UofL has denied the rumors. No one could fault Orsini for this hire, especially with reports that the position is not commanding a whole lot of interest and the perception that this is a bad job (by people outside of this message board, obviously. I am well aware of the fact that SMU fans think this is a prestigious, top coaching vacancy). Lastly, the rumor has made it mainstream.
2. Second highest chance - NUTT: He understands that he is all but out at Arkansas. He will probably not get too many other immediate opportunities to be a HC (other than possibly Baylor). Rumor is that he prefers the Baylor opening (read it on one of the rumor sites), but there is strong perception that Baylor may go with Singletary. Where is Nutt then? He could do worse than SMU. Would certainly be a WOW hire for Orsini. This rumor has also made it mainstream.
3. Hopes starting to fade: BOWDEN: Bowden's name is being mentioned pretty much everywhere for every opening right now, including Baylor. I trust some of those on this board who said that Orsini pretty much called him a fallback. Being out of coaching for 10 years, I'm not sure Orsini would be willing to stake his career on him. If he was the guy, wouldn't there have been some indication already that he was on the in? I mean, c'mon, respect for Bennett is one thing, but news surrounding the return of Bowden to college coaching would certainly be too big to prevent a leak anywhere The fact that Bennett has one more game to lose would have no impact on such an event.
Just my 2 cents.
1. Highest chance - KRAGTHORPE: Makes sense. UofL fanbase is ready to burn him at the stake and rumors are swirling on their message boards that Kragthorpe is in talks with SMU (some even say with the blessing of UofL's AD). Kragthorpe seems like an Orsini-type hire. He walked into a bad situation at Tulsa and turned into a top C-USA power. His wife is from Dallas and supposedly they have never felt comfortable in Kentucky. Coach K has strong recruiting ties to Texas and has coached/recruited in Texas for the majority of his career. If he turns around SMU, he will have plenty of other BCS offers later. If he has another losing season at UofL, he will probably be out of a job and be relegated to coordinator status or worse in 2009. Neither Kragthorpe nor UofL has denied the rumors. No one could fault Orsini for this hire, especially with reports that the position is not commanding a whole lot of interest and the perception that this is a bad job (by people outside of this message board, obviously. I am well aware of the fact that SMU fans think this is a prestigious, top coaching vacancy). Lastly, the rumor has made it mainstream.
2. Second highest chance - NUTT: He understands that he is all but out at Arkansas. He will probably not get too many other immediate opportunities to be a HC (other than possibly Baylor). Rumor is that he prefers the Baylor opening (read it on one of the rumor sites), but there is strong perception that Baylor may go with Singletary. Where is Nutt then? He could do worse than SMU. Would certainly be a WOW hire for Orsini. This rumor has also made it mainstream.
3. Hopes starting to fade: BOWDEN: Bowden's name is being mentioned pretty much everywhere for every opening right now, including Baylor. I trust some of those on this board who said that Orsini pretty much called him a fallback. Being out of coaching for 10 years, I'm not sure Orsini would be willing to stake his career on him. If he was the guy, wouldn't there have been some indication already that he was on the in? I mean, c'mon, respect for Bennett is one thing, but news surrounding the return of Bowden to college coaching would certainly be too big to prevent a leak anywhere The fact that Bennett has one more game to lose would have no impact on such an event.
Just my 2 cents.