More Expansion

[50's PONY]

Posted on Wed, Aug. 06, 2003

Where will TCU land?
ACC expansion spins off in Fort Worth
By Wendell Barnhouse
Star-Telegram Staff Writer



Football 2003 starts Thursday at TCU when players report for the first day of preseason practice.

The Frogs are primed to defend their Conference USA title and reach double figures in victories for consecutive seasons for the first time since 1932-33.

That's the on-field story. Off the field, the next four to five months figure to be an ongoing drama of rumors, reports and run-arounds involving conference realignments and where TCU might wind up. For the school, its athletic department and its administrators, these are the Days Of Living On The Edge.

"This is a profound time for college football," said William Koehler, TCU provost and vice chancellor for academic affairs. "The conference alignment issue is on the table, and that alone determines if you'll have a chance to play for a national championship. ... There are any number of variables out there that nobody is able to predict right now."

TCU is poised to take a quantum leap forward in national stature by moving to a conference affiliated with the Bowl Championship Series. Or, it could throw it in reverse and retreat to a conference even further removed from the BCS.

"There are a lot of variables that we don't have answers for," Mountain West Conference commissioner Craig Thompson said. "And without knowing those answers, in particular what form the next BCS contract will take, knowing what's going to happen is nearly impossible."

TCU could move up if:

• The Big East Conference decides to expand to 10 or 12 teams and looks as far west as Fort Worth. That would put TCU in a conference that is currently a BCS member.

• It receives an invitation to join the Mountain West. Of the conferences currently in flux, the MWC figures to be the one controlling its own destiny. And if the Big East dissolves, an expanded MWC could find itself as the sixth BCS conference.

• C-USA turns aggressor and adds two schools from the Big East (Pittsburgh? West Virginia?). That could move C-USA into the BCS neighborhood. The problem is convincing schools currently in a BCS league -- even one that's threatened -- to leave for a non-BCS conference.

TCU could regress if:

• Louisville and Cincinnati leave C-USA. TCU would be one of eight remaining football schools in a league just a notch above the Sun Belt Conference. Finding replacements for Louisville and Cincinnati could be difficult. Marshall and Central Florida of the Mid-American Conference could be attractive, but they wouldn't solve C-USA's troubling geographic spread and probably wouldn't make a difference in BCS membership.

• It has no choice but to accept an invitation from the Western Athletic Conference. The WAC wants to add two schools in the Central Time Zone in order to form two six-team divisions.

"We want to go in a direction where we can maintain a national presence in football and men's and women's basketball while continuing our excellence in all other sports," TCU's Koehler said. "As far as football, we have goals of being in the top 25 year in, year out.

"The problem with certain conferences is that your alignment with those leagues can hurt your national status. That would give us pause in considering which way to go."

The Atlantic Coast Conference's summertime raid on the Big East has made the Big East the first domino in the realignment scenario. Miami and Virginia Tech move from the Big East to the ACC in 2004. By 2005, the Big East must add at least two schools with Division I-A football.

The Big East's apparent targets are Louisville and Cincinnati. Big East presidents plan to meet later this month to decide the direction of a conference that could see its football schools go one way and its basketball schools another. It could be two to three months before the Big East formally issues invitations.

Koehler recently talked with C-USA commissioner Britton Banowsky and asked that the league become more proactive.

"I guess the reality and perception is that we're sitting and waiting to see what the Big East does," Koehler said. "I think we need to look at the issues that might be encouraging schools to consider leaving C-USA. Maybe there are rules changes in C-USA that could keep teams from leaving."

Instead of waiting for the Big East to invite a few C-USA schools, C-USA could be the aggressor and try to entice a couple of Big East schools to defect. But C-USA presidents haven't made a decision regarding expansion.

WAC commissioner Karl Benson has made it clear that he would like to add either TCU, Houston or Tulane to his conference.

The eight-team MWC will hold meetings in September to discuss expansion issues. If the MWC decides to add one, two or four teams, that likely would impact the WAC's current membership.

If the MWC expands, it likely would target WAC members Fresno State and Hawaii, and possibly Nevada and Boise State, too. Losing any of those schools would weaken the WAC and make joining it less attractive.

To that end, Benson recently asked the 10 WAC schools to sign five-year commitments to not leave the conference.

"We've certainly thought about [C-USA going away]," Koehler said. "But we've not had any conversations [with other conferences]. We're going to look at anything, but what we look at often changes from day to day. We'd like to be in a position where we can play some of the top teams.

"These [conference realignments] get so complex. You get the courts, the government, the state legislature, boosters and alums involved, you've got a number of variables over which you have no control."

TCU would love a seat at the BCS table, but this game of musical chairs is crowded. BYU, Louisville, Colorado State and Marshall -- just to name a few -- can all claim their football programs are good enough to play with the Big Boys.

For now, TCU is keeping its options open ... even if it's not clear what those options might be.

Putting it in gear

The Horned Frogs football team gets down to business this week. A few upcoming key dates:

[EastStang]

The MWC Commissioner has been quoted as saying that they are looking west not east. TCU is not a player in that scenario. I have not seen one quote from any Big East source ever identifying TCU as a possible member of its conference. I have heard that CUSA may try and make a play for Pitt and W. Va., but that is thought to be a very unlikely possibility as the Big East is already a BCS conference and CUSA is not. On the other hand, the BCS might change if it meant buying off Tulane. If that did occur then SMU, Rice and Tulsa might very well start talks with Army, Navy, BC and Syracuse about the Ivy League II idea. Decent basketball, bad travel, Syracuse and BC have decent football as well. Would fans in Dallas come up to see Syracuse (Jim Brown's alma mater) or BC (Doug Fluties alma mater)?

[Hoop Fan]

East, you been hittin the sauce this morning bro? Syracuse and BC? From where I sit, that is one of the most unlikely scenarios I could imagine.

[GoRedGoBlue]

But, if Pitt and W Vir stay in an 8 team Big East, they may NOT get the BCS...if both of those schools go to CUSA, there may be more likelihood of CUSA getting the BCS bid with UL, TCU, Pitt, SMiss and perhaps W Vir as the 'power' schools in a new CUSA.

[Hoop Fan]

The comments by the TCU chancellor about Banowsky not being aggressive enough seem ridiculous. CUSA has no cards to play. All they can do is wait and anything else is wishful thinking. Similar to the WAC pursuing TCU, Tulane and Houston under the Benson Plan. Pitt and West Virginia can partner up with Louisville and Cincy any time they choose and everybody knows it, so there is no pressure that can be applied to them by CUSA. What does Keohler want Banowsky to do, start taking hostages?

[EastStang]

I agree that the chances of CUSA getting Pitt and WVA are slim and none, but if that happened, then I think the BE remaining teams would be free agents. On the CUSA board TCU and others have been talking about the teams in CUSA hanging together so that they can get a couple of crossover teams and become BCS. If CUSA teams said to the BE pound sand, they would be stuck looking at Marshall, Bowling Green and UCF for their last two teams. Not a real good choice for them. But I agree that a President of UL and UC turning down a BE invite would probably result in the immediate firing of that President.

[Hoop Fan]

exactly, why would Louisville or Cincy protect Tulane etc? And Marshall, UCF would not be the BEs only option. Navy and Army still have alot of national appeal. If Louisville got demanding, adding Marshall, Army and Navy to get to 9 wouldn't leave anybody missing Louisville too much. So, the bottom line is Louisville is looking out for Louisville and they have no choice but to do that. As a result, CUSA has zero leverage.

[Water Pony]

The TCU scenarios appear to rely on wishing thinking (their feeling of entitlement that BCS membership is inevitable) and various options that don't appear to hang together.

First, TCU should take pride in their recent success but there is no logic why they are assured of similar results well into the future. Their enthusiasm is based on their success at a point in time, not on the strenghts of a large, state school with the advantages of a huge alumni, fan and attendance base.

Second, their location (and ours) makes in very unlikely that the BE would consider even for a moment expansion thousands of miles away in another time zone (CT) or, alternatively, be a preferred option for the PT and MT zone oriented MWC.

There is no entitlement for private schools in our market or region. TCU should plan to compete agressively based on their strengths and limitations in the long term. Net: TCU should recognize their common interest in a strong regional model, which they can either dominant or compete in. Wishing for suitors to make them BCS material simply is wishful thinking.

[This message has been edited by Water Pony (edited 08-06-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Water Pony (edited 08-06-2003).]

[SMUstang]

If the BE could pull it off, they just might get Army, Navy, Temple, and ND as a package. This would leave UC and UL in C-USA. At that point C-USA could either stand pat or invite Marshall and SMU to form a 12 team conference with a championship game. Taking it one step farther. If C-USA went to 12, the WAC would probably add UNT, NMSU, and USU to form their own 12 team conference with a championship game and regional play.

Just MHO