Alabama vs. LSU

[HB Pony Dad]

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 LSU

When: Sat., Nov. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Baton Rogue, La.
Preview: Circus surrounding Saban


Alabama at LSU Matchups

Alabama offense vs. LSU defense

Alabama's offensive line is arguably the best run-blocking group in the country. The massive, experienced unit averages 308 pounds across the board and is comprised of three juniors and two seniors. There isn't a more talented left tackle in the nation than Andre Smith, who possesses outstanding balance for such a big, strong lineman. Center Antoine Caldwell also ranks among the elite at his position -- Caldwell does an outstanding job of making line calls and wreaking havoc on the second level as a run blocker.
RB Glen Coffee is taking full advantage of the outstanding blocking his offensive line provides. The junior back possesses only average bulk but he runs hard and knows when to lower his shoulder. He is also a patient runner who waits for his blocks to develop and shows good initial burst to get to and through a developing crease. Coffee leads the Tide with an average of 6.6 yards per carry, and while backup Mark Ingram is not as polished he displays an even greater size-speed ratio. Ingram has been getting more touches recently and has 96 carries on the season, which has helped keep Coffee fresh later in games. Coffee and Ingram have combined for 1,427 yards and 15 touchdowns on 230 carries through nine games.

If LSU is to have any chance of pulling off the upset its talented but underachieving defensive line must turn in its best performance of the season. LDE Tyson Jackson is playing the most consistent football of his career and is a big, powerful end who can stuff the run and collapse the pocket as a bull-rusher both inside and outside. DT Ricky Jean-Francois possesses the most talent of the group but he has been limited by injuries and an erratic motor. While there is a lot of solid depth along this front, none of the other players is a huge difference-maker. Making matters worse, LSU's linebackers have struggled at times to fight through traffic and they've too often been caught out of position. The good news is senior ILB Darry Beckwith is back healthy, which brings more stability and depth to the unit. The reality, however, is Beckwith and OLBs Kelvin Sheppard and Perry Riley will have their hands full against the Crimson Tide's powerful rushing attack if they don't get a better effort from their defensive front.

Alabama doesn't like to throw the ball a lot, but when it does the Tigers need to get some pressure on QB John Parker Wilson. The senior has been inconsistent this season. There have been some games (Clemson, Georgia) in which he found an early rhythm and was very effective, but others (Tulane, Arkansas, Kentucky) in which he reverted back to the erratic ways of his younger years. One common denominator appears to be pass-rush pressure. When teams get in his face and push him around, Parker Wilson's mechanics will falter and he will force some throws. That's why it's imperative that LSU's top pass rushers -- DEs Jackson (4.5 sacks) and Rahim Alem (six sacks) -- show up in a big way because Parker Wilson has enough weapons at his disposal to exploit LSU's secondary if given time to throw.

True freshman Julio Jones is the rising star in a mostly inexperienced but talented Crimson Tide receiver corps. At 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, Jones is strong enough to dictate his routes against LSU's defensive backs and athletic enough to separate from them. Jones makes tough catches in traffic and does an outstanding job of using his big frame to shield defenders from the ball. He leads the team with 33 catches for 506 yards and four touchdowns. Mike McCoy is an experienced secondary option opposite Jones and Marquis Maze is a quick redshirt freshman who flashes big-play potential after the catch. TE Nick Walker, who is second on the team with 23 catches, has also emerged as a reliable short-to-intermediate option over the middle. On the other side of the ball, FS Curtis Taylor has been LSU's only consistent defensive back this season. SS Harry Coleman fills hard versus the run but takes false steps on occasion and has been exposed at times. RCB Jai Eugene is talented but still makes inexperienced mistakes, and LCB Chris Hawkins has good size and straight-line speed but he's stiff in the hips and his limited range leads to problems as an open-field tackler.

LSU offense vs. Alabama defense

The Crimson Tide defense has survived without massive NG Terrence Cody (knee) the past couple of games as redshirt freshman Josh Chapman (6-1, 305) has filled in admirably. Chapman is a shorter, more squatty defensive tackle with a good center of gravity that helps him hold his ground versus the run. During the two games Cody missed, Tennessee and Tulane averaged just 79 yards rushing yards against the Tide defense, which is on par with its season average (65.6 ypg). However, LSU's rushing attack (186.1 ypg) poses a much greater threat, which is why we expect Cody to be back in the lineup if at all possible and if he can play even a third of the team's defensive snaps he will provide a boost.

The Tigers use multiple formations and some misdirection to keep opposing defenses honest, but their bread-and-butter is the interior run game. Behind a massive offensive line that averages 316.4 pounds, LSU likes to impose its will by running north-south with a pair of bruising 230-pound running backs in Charles Scott and Keiland Williams. The Tigers have yet to face a defensive front like Alabama's, however. With Cody and Chapman manning the middle and flanked by DEs Bobby Greenwood (6-5, 278) and Brandon Deaderick (6-4, 287), the Crimson Tide's three-man defensive line does an excellent job of occupying blockers inside. With the trio of wide-bodies pinched inside and OLBs Cory Reamer and Brandon Fanney up on the line of scrimmage (typically head-up or on the outside shoulder of the opposing OT or TE), it gives the Tide a five-man defensive front on the majority of plays. More often than not, those five defenders are able to occupy enough space for MLB Rolando McClain and WLB Don'ta Hightower to roam freely in pursuit of the ball carrier.

FS Rashad Johnson could play a big role in Saturday night's outcome, as well. The savvy senior does an excellent job of reading his keys and breaking on the ball early versus both the run and the pass. He fills hard in run support and he's an effective open-field tackler who is tied with McClain for the team lead with 58 total tackles. Johnson also covers a good amount of ground in deep-middle zone coverage, which is why LSU QBs Andrew Hatch and/or Jarrett Lee must know where he is at all times.

The Tigers have a noticeable personnel advantage on the perimeter, though, with their wide receivers working against Alabama's pedestrian cornerbacks. WR Brandon LaFell"> is an emerging star with excellent athleticism for his size and he leads the team with 39 receptions, including six for scores. Demetrius Byrd isn't quite as consistent as LaFell, but he possesses the speed to stretch the field vertically and averages 15.7 yards per catch. LSU also has a legitimate weapon over the middle in TE Richard Dickson, who has hauled in 21 passes so far this season. Alabama's cornerbacks are good athletes who protect themselves well in coach Nick Saban's multiple-coverage secondary, but they lack great man-to-man cover corner skills and are vulnerable when left alone on an island for too long. The problem for LSU is that it simply cannot trust its quarterbacks enough to aggressively attack this potential mismatch.

Redshirt freshman Lee and sophomore Hatch have combined to throw 11 interceptions, including five that have been returned for scores. Hatch is questionable for Saturday night's game because of a leg injury but has been benched at times for underperforming, anyway. Lee is a more gifted passer but he doesn't seem to be improving with experience. In fact, he's coming off an 8-for-22 passing performance versus Tulane's inferior defense. Needless to say, we expect Saban to go after Lee and/or Hatch with a complex and heavy blitz package.

Key individual matchup

LSU RBs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams vs. Alabama MLB Rolando McClain

At 5-11 and 233 pounds, Scott is a hard-runner with good initial burst, vision, size and power. He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry with 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. While he's not very elusive or dynamic, Scott is the most reliable form of offense LSU has to offer right now considering its current state of flux at quarterback. The Tigers also have the luxury of bringing in Williams (5-11, 229), who possesses a very similar body type and running style. While he's not quite as consistent in terms of vision and decisiveness, the offense hardly skips a beat when the talented backup is in to give Scott a breather. Together they average 23 carries per game and LSU has little chance of pulling off the upset if it doesn't at least match that number against Alabama.

Assuming he gets even decent protection from the defensive line, McClain should play a big role in limiting the success of Scott and Williams. Only a sophomore, McClain has already emerged as one of the elite linebackers in the nation. He diagnoses plays quickly and takes excellent angles in pursuit of the ball carrier and possesses the size, strength and toughness to shed blocks and bring big backs like Scott and Williams down at the point of contact.

Special Teams

Alabama ranks 31st nationally in punt returns (11.9 ypr) but 103rd in kickoff returns (19.3), and Javier Arenas handles nearly all the touches in both departments. He personally averages 13.4 yards per punt return, including an 87-yard score, and 23.5 yards per kickoff return, but with a long of only 38 yards. Leigh Tiffin has attempted all but one field goal try for the Crimson Tide this season and has connected on 13 of 18, including a long of 54 yards. P PJ Fitzgerald is averaging a respectable 41.8 yards per attempt, yet Alabama ranks 85th nationally in net punting (40.4 ypp). Fitzgerald doesn't do a good job of directional kicking and his cover units have done a poor job of finishing. That's a concern for coach Saban and his staff, considering the big-play potential of LSU RS Trindon Holliday.

Like the Crimson Tide, LSU has been much more effective returning punts (14th nationally, 15.0 ypr) than kicks (104th, 19.3 ypr). Holliday is averaging an impressive 16.9 yards per punt return, including a 92-yard touchdown, but only 22.1 yards per kick return. Keiland Williams is the other main kick returner and his average per attempt (21.9) is nearly identical. The Tigers are solid in the kicking game, ranking 33rd nationally in net punting (41.1 ypp) thanks to the solid leg of Brady Dalfrey, who is averaging 40.8 yards per punt. Josh Jasper and Colt David have combined to handle the team's 12 field goal attempts this season, with Jasper connecting on two attempts from inside 35 yards and David nailing 8 of his 10 attempts, including a long of 51 yards.

Scouts' Edge

LSU likes to use its bruising running backs to protect its inexperienced quarterback and wear down the opposing defense over four quarters, but that game plan is unlikely to succeed versus Alabama's massive defensive front. The Tigers have surrendered more than 50 points in their last two games against ranked teams (Florida and Georgia), and while we don't expect the Crimson Tide to drop a half-a-hundred on LSU the reality is the Tigers simply do not match up well against Alabama's overpowering rushing attack. LSU's streak of 30 straight home wins on Saturdays was snapped against Georgia, and Alabama will make it two losses in the past three Saturday games at Death Valley for the slumping Tigers.

Prediction: Crimson Tide 28, Tigers 23

[SMU2007]

would love to see LSU take down Alabama this weekend. Could happen - Bama hasn't played anyone that great besides a UGA team that doesn't look like it's as good as advertised

[Harry0569]

As a Gator fan, I would love to see Saban and the tide destroy LSU, so that when UF wins in the SEC championship against Bama, they will vault up into the top 2 and play in the Nat'l Championship.

[PonySnob]

Should we have a board set up to discuss "non-SMU" football games?

[expony18]

or maybe start a board for you to talk about texas? oh wait they have those..


alabama fumbles into the endzone for a touchback

[expony18]

7-7

[expony18]

LSU 14
Alabama 7

[HB Pony Dad]

Overtime

21-21

[HB Pony Dad]

Alabama intercepts LSU in first OT in end zone.

Looks easy for Bama now!

Hope TT goes down as Bama will never beat Florida!

Bama wins 27-21

[J.T.supporta]

Bama will never beat Florida!

Bama wins 27-21

very true. The gators are playing like Georgia did last year to end the season

[RGV Pony]

so LSU runs for 6 yards on 1st down. Then they get away from fundamentals and attempt the "Wildcat" formation...it's the new pisto. Now third and manageable is third and long. Then their QB rolls out, doesn't notice the safety rolling with him, throws into double coverage and gets picked.

I guess the football gods have finally realized that LSU is usually who saves my fb weekend, and have begun applying Peruna's law to the Tigers. Lovely.