When: Sat., Nov. 29, 8:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Stillwater, Okla.
Oklahoma offense vs. Oklahoma State defense
Oklahoma uses its ground game to set up its play-action package and Texas Tech's linebackers didn't know whether they were coming or going once the Sooners established the run last week. Don't expect Oklahoma to tweak its approach in this game. RBs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown both read their blocks well, run downhill and fight for yards after contact, and they run behind an offensive line that excels at driving defenders off the ball. Keep an eye on 337-pound LOT Phil Loadholt and 335-pound LG Duke Robinson in particular. They are capable of engulfing 275-pound Cowboys DE Derek Burton and 290-pound DT Jeray Chatham. With Oklahoma's front five controlling the line of scrimmage and its backs consistently running north-south rather than east-west, Oklahoma State LBs Andre Sexton, Patrick Levine and Orie Lemon need to fill quickly when they read run. If they don't the Sooners should be able to cover them up at the second level and open the door for Murray and Brown to break some long runs. The problem is, the linebackers can't be over-aggressive because of Oklahoma's aforementioned play-action package. They can't get caught out of position trying to slip blocks, either, because both backs have good vision and can cut back when the opportunity presents itself.
Sooners QB Sam Bradford is completing 68.2 percent of his passes and he's thrown 42 touchdowns compared to six interceptions. He's made the most of a strong supporting cast in the process, as four different Sooners -- WRs Juaquin Iglesias, Manuel Johnson and Ryan Broyles and TE Jermaine Gresham -- have at least 500 receiving yards. Oklahoma State CBs Perrish Cox and Jacob Lacey have strong short-area man-to-man cover skills but they are going to have a difficult time turning and running with Iglesias and Johnson. Furthermore, the Cowboys lost nickel back Lucien Antoine to a knee injury early in the year and his replacement, T.J. Bell, is going to have a difficult time matching up with No. 3 wideout Broyles. Gresham, who has a rare blend of speed and size, could be the toughest of the four to slow down. Oklahoma does an excellent job of creating favorable matchups for him by moving him around. The Sooners can line him up in the traditional tight end spot, out wide or in the slot. At 6-foot-6 and 261 pounds, he is big enough to compete for any jump balls and shield Ss Quinton Moore (5-10, 187) and Ricky Price (6-1, 193) from the ball. While a productive pass rush that forces Bradford to get rid of the ball quickly will help protect the secondary, there's little reason to believe Oklahoma State will have much success getting to him. The Cowboys lack a dominant pass rusher up front and blitzing will make the defense more vulnerable to the big play. Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Tim Beckman must call a near perfect game and get the right personnel on the field if the Cowboys are to slow this balanced and talented attack. That's easier said than done, though, against Oklahoma's no-huddle offense.
Oklahoma State offense vs. Oklahoma defense
Cowboys RB Kendall Hunter is a shifty open-field runner who makes crisp cuts, hits holes at full speed and shows a second gear when he gets into space. Though he weighs just 190 pounds, he runs low to the ground and he has excellent balance so he's tougher to bring down than his size suggests. Oklahoma can't just zero in on Hunter, either, because Oklahoma State runs option, read-option and designed quarterback keepers with QB Zac Robinson, who reads defensive fronts well, is elusive enough to make the occasional defender miss and has above-average top-end speed. This potent option attack will test the discipline of Sooners redshirt freshmen WLB Travis Lewis and MLB Austin Box, but don't forget that the Oklahoma defense gives up only 3.1 yards per carry. Sooners DT Gerald McCoy and NG Adrian Taylor have above-average initial quickness for their size and they should be disruptive working against Oklahoma State's interior offensive line. Behind the defensive tackles, Box has done an admirable job of filling in for the injured Ryan Reynolds. At 221 pounds, Box lacks prototypical size but plays with a chip on his shoulder and has sideline-to-sideline range. On the outside, Lewis leads the team in tackles and Keenan Clayton flies to the ball as well, and both have excellent closing speed. In addition, 230-pound SS Nic Harris is more than capable of holding his own near the line of scrimmage if and when Oklahoma decides to load up against the run.
Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant leads the Big 12 in receiving yards per game (111.1) and there isn't Bryant can't do. He is a vertical threat who tracks the deep ball well, he's got the burst to separate from man coverage underneath and he has the body control to make acrobatic catches in traffic. Sooners CBs Brian Johnson and Dominique Franks will have a tough time matching up so look for Oklahoma defensive coordinator Brent Venables to give them plenty of safety help over the top. In addition, Lewis and Clayton have to take away Bryant's quick-hitting slant routes by getting good depth in their drops. The Cowboys' second leading receiver is TE Brandon Pettigrew, who is athletic for his size and he catches the ball well. Pettigrew isn't a great route-runner, though, and he lacks ideal top-end speed so he's at his best using his 255-pound frame to shield defenders from the ball. Unlike most college safeties, Harris is big enough to prevent Pettigrew from pushing him around. Making matters worse for Oklahoma State, the Sooners are tied for second in the FBS with 38 sacks and should be able to get to Robinson despite the Cowboys' sound pass protection. While Oklahoma DE Auston English will miss this game with a knee injury, DE Jeremy Beal has 7.5 sacks and he's quick enough to turn the corner working against ROT Barry Bond. On the inside, McCoy shows above-average closing speed when he's healthy and Taylor complements him well. In addition, Venables will show Robinson a number of different pre-snap looks and bring pressure from different areas of the field in an effort to confuse Robinson, who must make sound reads on the fly and get the ball out of his hands quickly. Any mistakes could result in a costly turnover, as Lewis and FS Lendy Holmes have each recorded four interceptions.
Key individual matchup
Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson vs. Oklahoma WLB Travis Lewis
Robinson is a dual-threat quarterback who runs the ball well and puts good zip on his downfield passes, but the multi-talented Lewis should get the better of this matchup. Lewis is a reliable open-field tackler who locates the ball quickly and has the range to chase Robinson down when he runs. In coverage, he gets good depth in his drops, reads the quarterback's eyes and plays the ball well. After an interception he quickly transitions into an efficient open-field runner, and he returned an interception 47 yards against Texas Tech last week. Robinson has to locate Lewis and deliver the ball accurately when throwing in his area of the field. Robinson also has to locate Lewis before the snap because Lewis has the initial quickness, athletic ability and closing speed to get to the quarterback when asked to blitz.
Special Teams
Oklahoma redshirt freshman K Jimmy Stevens has connected on five of eight field goal attempts, and two of the three misses came on 30-yard attempts. Backup Matt Moreland kicks off for the Sooners and is averaging 63.1 yards per kickoff with 14 of his 96 kickoffs resulting in touchbacks. Meanwhile, Perrish Cox returns kickoffs for Oklahoma State and he's averaging 29.2 yards per return. He also returned a kickoff 90 yards for a touchdown against Washington State in the season opener. He's not the only Cowboy who's been productive returning kickoffs, either. Victor Johnson is averaging 28.0 yards and Bryant is averaging 27.7 yards per kickoff return. That doesn't bode well for Oklahoma considering it ranks 108th in the FBS in kickoff return defense (24.
and it has surrendered three kickoff returns for touchdowns. Sooner P Mike Knall is averaging 35.9 yards per punt and he's placed 14 of his 47 punts inside the 20-yard line. Bryant also returns punts and is averaging 17.9 yards per punt return, and he's returned two punts for touchdowns this year. However, he is going to have a tougher time breaking free against an Oklahoma punt cover unit that's holding opponents to an average of 5.4 yards per return.
Oklahoma State K Dan Bailey has connected on 12 of 15 field goal attempts. Though he lacks elite range, Bailey has missed just one field goal attempt inside 40 yards and he's connected on his last seven attempts overall. Bailey is also averaging 67.7 yards per kickoff and 13 of his 81 kickoffs have ended in touchbacks. He will kick to Murray and Iglesias. Murray has fared better thus far and is averaging 27.4 yards per kickoff return. Both could break out this week because Oklahoma State's kickoff coverage has been leaky. Oklahoma State P Matt Fodge has been impressive, averaging 44.4 yards per punt with 17 of 29 punts coming to rest inside the 20. Broyles returns punts for the Sooners and is averaging 10.6 yards per return and he returned a punt 68 yards for a touchdown against Kansas State earlier this year. Don't expect much from him this week, though, as Oklahoma State has covered punts well and Fodge is accurate enough to kick away from Broyles.
Scouts' Edge
Oklahoma is coming off a dominant performance against a strong Texas Tech team but there's no time to celebrate. The Sooners have won two of their last three games in Stillwater but those victories came by a combined nine points, and Oklahoma State is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. Emotion will certainly play a role in the Sooners performance, but will the affect be positive or negative? On one hand, it won't be easy to rebound and play with the same mental precision they did against the Red Raiders, but on the other hand Oklahoma is looking to make a statement in an effort to improve its BCS standing so don't expect the Sooners to come out flat.
Bradford should be able to set the tone early for an Oklahoma offenst that has emerged as the most balanced and precise unit college football right now. Murray and Brown will establish the run early and set up the play-action package for Bradford, who will continue to take what the defense gives him. Bradford's accuracy and touch will play a big role in this game as he will continue to provide his receivers with chances to produce after the catch, this time versus a vulnerable Cowboy secondary.
On the flip side, the Sooners won't be as dominant on defense this week against Oklahoma State's run-heavy offense. Expect Oklahoma to slow the Cowboys' ground game just enough, though, which will place too much pressure on Robinson to use the pass to come from behind in the second half. Robinson simply does not have the weapons outside of Bryant to consistently move the ball trough the air. The Sooners will pull away late.
Prediction: Sooners 42, Cowboys 28
