USC: The Best Team, Not the Most Deserving

[HB Pony Dad]

From today's WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122808016191367339.html

Let's take a timeout from the Big 12 tiebreaker debate and the Alabama-Florida discussion.

Let's take a moment to consider the plight of the nation's real No. 1 team.

This is not to say that the Southern California Trojans, who of course had their chance, ought to play in the national championship. If they'd beaten Oregon State, they'd have nothing to worry about. It's not like the system totally let them down. But we also know that it's far from perfect. The fact that the Trojans have played the second half of the season with so little hope for a title shot encapsulates today's often unfair college football landscape.

We've already discussed the correlation between elite defenses and national championships. (The last five title-game winners didn't all dominate offensively, but all ranked top-10 nationally in total defense.) Well, USC 2008 is as elite as defense gets. The Trojans aren't merely tops in most defensive statistics. Their 3.4 yards-per-play average is miles ahead of the field. To put this figure into perspective: The 1997 Michigan defense, the Charles Woodson group generally regarded as the most dominating defense of recent years, allowed 3.7 yards per play. And that predated the spread of the spread offense.

As with baseball's heightened offensive numbers of the late 1990s, fans should consider the environment that USC's defense plays in. Two seasons ago, just one team (Hawaii) topped 40 points per game for the season and 20 teams averaged over 30. This season, 11 schools are averaging better than 40 points (five of them in the Big 12), and 37 are getting 30 per game (four of which USC played). In an offensive year USC has posted historic defensive numbers.

So despite all the hype surrounding the Oklahoma offense -- and we've been on that bandwagon too -- USC's defense may be the best unit in college football. Yet USC likely will be consigned to the Rose Bowl for a fourth straight season (yes, they did play for the national crown there following the 2005 season). The Trojans can only hope for Missouri to shock Oklahoma, which controversially leapfrogged Texas in the latest Bowl Championship Series standings, in the Big 12 title game.

USC's angst at watching the title game from home represents the second-most unfortunate outcome of Oregon State's loss to Oregon, after the gnashing of teeth in Corvallis, a city that hasn't sent its boys to Pasadena in January since the Johnson administration. If the Trojans couldn't go to the national-title game, at least they could test themselves against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl and have a shot to prove their worth. Instead, Oregon State comes back to haunt them twice.

It's becoming increasingly clear that, unlike the champions of other conferences, USC must go undefeated to reach the national-title game. Even in 2003, when the Trojans finished the regular season ranked first in both major polls, the BCS computers excluded them from the title game. The Big 12 likely will land a one-loss team in the national-championship game this season, as have the Big Ten and Southeastern conferences in recent years (the SEC sent two-loss LSU last season).

But USC, regarded as playing a weaker schedule in the Pac-10, has been held to a tougher standard. The irony of this predicament? The Trojans should have less to prove than other contenders, given their 5-1 all-time BCS bowl record and that, like the rest of the Pac-10, they buck the national trend by playing a rigorous nonconference schedule. Sensitive to more fickle fan bases less likely to swallow the weak nonconference pablum served elsewhere, USC and other Pac-10 schools schedule more major-college competition than other conferences. For example, undefeated Alabama's nonconference slate included Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky and Arkansas State.

Meanwhile, the Trojans played Virginia, Ohio State and Notre Dame -- three big names, albeit two mired in surprisingly mediocre seasons. Come season's end, though, USC gets little credit for it, and gets unfairly punished by the computers for playing in a conference with Washington and Washington State teams playing outrageously awful ball. The worst in other conferences -- say, Iowa State in the Big 12 -- were about as beatable. They just didn't get outscored 127-0 over two games the way the Cougars did.

The Pac-10 also lacks a championship game. Florida, a team with a resume similar to USC's, can play its way into the national-title game thanks to its conference title match with Alabama. Then again, there's no need for it out west, since every Pac-10 team plays each other.

And so, back the Trojans trudge to Pasadena -- first for the season finale against UCLA, then, in all likelihood, for another ho-hum New Year's Day. Have they only themselves to blame for it? Sure. Just because they're college football's strongest team doesn't mean they're the most deserving of a title shot. Contenders in the SEC and Big 12 can make legitimate claims for those two golden tickets.

But if we're wondering who's really No. 1, it says something that USC has gotten so good, it's tired of the Rose Bowl.

I just wanted to add my totally unbiased

[smupony94]

USC is NOT the best team. Weak schedule compared to the other top teams

[J.T.supporta]

the 6th best team

[smupony94]

Do you think HBPD posts on the USC site?

[jkflamebo]

USC is NOT the best team. Weak schedule compared to the other top teams

usc has the best team in the country. unfortunately, all they get to do this year is crush an overrated big ten team again. advice to cfball bettors out there, take usc to cover against penn st

[SMUfiji43]

I believe that in a playoff system USC would win it all. The defense is too good and the offense, although it hasn't been at potent as years past, can get it done every week. In my opinion, Florida would pose the greatest threat to beat them I think with all that speed.

[StallionsModelT]

A team that had to fight tooth and nail with Arizona and lost to Oregon State. Too bad USC doesn't just allow Rivals to declare them national champs instead of actually doing it on the field.

[mustangxc]

USC is the best team in the country with Florida and Texas a close second.

[mathman]

USC is the best team in the country with Florida and Texas a close second.

[Harry0569]

USC is the best team in the country with Florida and Texas a close second.

Are you serious? USC has shown NOTHING to prove they are the best team in America. Who have they beaten? Ohio State, without Beanie Wells, and Ohio State is not even that good (their best win? Northwestern/Michigan State) Give me a break. Florida is by and far the best team in America, especially after they beat Alabama.

[Stallion]

Its hard to hate USC-they've been exposing the Big Televen as frauds for half a century-and for that they will always have a warm spot in my heart.

[SMUfiji43]

A team that had to fight tooth and nail with Arizona and lost to Oregon State. Too bad USC doesn't just allow Rivals to declare them national champs instead of actually doing it on the field.

If they had the chance to do it on the field, I think they would for sure. About the Oregon St game, sometimes the great teams have that achilles heel team that gives them fits every year( ex K-State against Texas). Oregon State is a solid team and is better than most people give them credit for. They just don't receive much national exposure so people can see them on a regular basis.

[ponyte]

The BSC was formed to prevent teams like BYU from ever winning a National Championship again. It has performed its function flawlessly. All the bickering and arguing about who within the BSC should play in the national championship game is window dressing. So long as the argument is limited to the teams the computer (programmed by, you guessed it the BSC) picks, then the BSC cartel members are happy. If the argument begins to include non BSC teams, then all Hades will break loose.

The issue isn't which deserving BSC teams belongs in the Cartel's national championship game, the issue is why only the BSC teams are considered for the Cartel's national championship game.

[HB Pony Dad]

Oregon State is a solid team and is better than most people give them credit for. They just don't receive much national exposure so people can see them on a regular basis.

Hopefully most of the Nation missed them sucking Duck excrement last week.

Oregon's offense blistered Oregon State for 693 yards of total offense.

Scoreboard had to suck as well: 65-38

If the Trojans had bothered to do this to the Beavs as well, they would be heading to Miami instead of Pasadena!

[StallionsModelT]

And if my aunt had testicles she'd be my uncle.

Plain fact of the matter is that USC routinely lays a massive turd to one of the dogs in their conference (i.e. Oregon State and Stanford last year) when they have absolutely no business losing to to those teams. They are a byproduct of a seriously apathetic conference for football despite recruiting heads and shoulders above any other college program in the country.