OT - NFL Suicide Pool Help

[Pony Soup]

I joined a suicide pool this year and made all of my picks before the season started. Just have to pick a straight up winner, but can only use any given team once. Anyways, I am 14-0 and the pool is down from about 1000 people to 12. I could use your thoughts on what to do from here on out. I am not unhappy with the remaining games, but feel like there is no way I could pick 17-0 preseason so maybe I should change it up!! THanks!!

Remaining picks from pre-season

Week 15: Patriots over Oakland
Week 16: Bengals over Cleveland
Week 17: Steelers over Cleveland


Remaining teams left to use for the last three weeks:

New England
Bengals
Steelers
Detroit
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Miami
San Fran
Bills
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Seattle
StL Rams
Texans
Raiders
Eagles
Browns

[huskerpony]

Only one I would change is Cincy/Cleveland.


We are at the point in the season where teams are either fighting for a playoff spot or purposely tanking to raise their draft status.

No way Oakland beats New England this week. Oakland is out, and the Pats are fighting for a spot.

Same with the final week. Cleveland is out and Pittsburgh will likely be fighting for home field advantage for the playoffs. (The only caveat to that would be if Pittsburgh is locked in position--can't get ahead of Tennessee and no one can catch them--then they may pull some key players to rest them for the playoffs.......and it is kind of a local rivalry game, so if Cleveland is pretty much locked in too, they may go out with something to prove. But still, Cleveland winning in Pittsburgh is unlikely. Just check the standings before this one and see where everyone is at.)

The Cleveland/Cincinnati one is a toss-up because both will be fighting for draft choices. No way to tell what will happen there. Especially if Detroit manages to pick up a win against New Orleans that day, Cincy could have a shot at landing the number one draft spot. (I think these games are fairly entertaining to watch! Seeing what the coaches come up with to make it look like they are trying......)

Tampa Bay over San Diego is probably a good bet for that week. (West Coast team that is tanking and traveling across three time zones to play a team fighting for division title or wild card.) Plus if SD happens to lose this week or Denver happens to win, SD is out of the playoffs. [but it is likely that they will beat KC even though it is at Arrowhead and Denver will probably lose to Carolina.]

Miami over KC could be a possibility as well, but you never know with Miami--although the Chiefs are horrible right now.

I would say that the Jets over Seattle and Denver over Buffalo would be possibilities as well, but the Jets are in Seattle (time zone theory again) and Denver has just been so unpredictable this year--and have completely run out of favorable hometown call karma for the season!


----the only word of caution I would have for you if you pick Tampa Bay or Denver would be if SD wins this week and Denver loses (which is likely). They play each other the final week and Denver has had a tendency over the years to blow it at the end and have to fight it out that final weekend! Plus, Hilis is out for the season now too, so they are down to only Tatum Bell for a RB, who Shanahan hates and had to bring back to the team because they are out of players--so I wouldn't put it past him to blow a game just so that he can blame it on Bell.

(But on paper, I think both of these games look like pretty solid picks, especially if the division title is locked up this week.)

[Pony Soup]

thaaaaaaaaaank you

[huskerpony]

no problem

[EastStang]

I agree with that analysis - Cleveland and Cincy is a toss-up for a number of reasons. I'd look at who Detroit is playing on Week 16. They've mailed it in. Unfortunately, the Redskins are not available to you. Portis and Zorn are feuding, both offensive tackles are probably out, and Campbell is getting happy feet. If they lose to Cincy this week, they'll be toast after that.

[Pony Soup]

BUMP

Detroit is playing New Orleans, which I have used.

I am thinking HOUSTON (7-7) over Oakland (3-11)! I think they are motivated to go for a .500 or better season, which would be a first for them.

[huskerpony]

I would think that looks ok, but neither of those teams can make the playoffs (atleast not without Baltimore and New England both losing out the rest of the season) so it might be a toss-up. But, Oakland is pretty awful!

[miami and nyj still play each other, so one of them will get at least 10 wins, and the losing team would have to lose this week too. so houston is basically out.]

I would still go with:
1) Tampa over SD
2) Jets over Seattle (although Favre says his arm is hurt, but he'll come out to play with the playoffs on the line!)
3) Miami over KC
4) Denver over Buffalo

in that order.

All previous cautions still apply! (Tampa can still win their division and are coming off 2 losses, so they should be motivated--but SD isn't out of it yet. Still a home game with a west coast team playing in eastern time zone--which I think has only been a win for the west coast team 2 times this season or something ridiculous like that.)

I would NOT pick the NO/DET game. Detroit will be out for blood. Remember Miami snuck one in at the end of the year last year too. No one wants to be the second team ever to not win a game, and New Orleans is their best shot. You would think that New Orleans would beat them, but they are also out of the playoffs, so they may tank one for draft position too. Too tough to predict.

[RednBlue11]

id say the only toss up in the middle game

[SmooPower]

I would NOT pick the NO/DET game. Detroit will be out for blood. Remember Miami snuck one in at the end of the year last year too. No one wants to be the second team ever to not win a game, and New Orleans is their best shot. You would think that New Orleans would beat them, but they are also out of the playoffs, so they may tank one for draft position too. Too tough to predict.

I would say New Orleans would rather take a crappy draft pick rather than becoming the second team to lose to an 0-14 team. Also, I think Green Bay has a better chance of losing to Detroit - the Packers are in a tailspin.

[Jumpshooter]

id say the only toss up in the middle game

Stay with the Steelers in Week 17.

As for this week, I'd go:

Tampa
Miami or
Denver
in that order

Stay away from the Jets. The have sucked on the West Coast this year -- 0-3 I believe.

[Pony Soup]

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