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The TCU to the MWC rumors are gaining some speed. Now the Fresno paper is saying TCU is a front runner for the MWC. They should know, they want in more badly than anyone. My first guess when all this broke was that TCU might do that. I still think its 50/50, but its definitely very possible.


Realignment game may see WAC tumble

By Marek Warszawski The Fresno Bee (Published Thursday, October 9, 2003, 5:45 AM)

Life as the last domino is no fun at all. Just ask Fresno State athletic director Scott Johnson. From Internet message boards to last week's athletic directors meetings in Dallas, conference realignment is the hottest topic in college sports. Also the most speculated upon.

No one knows which way the dominoes will fall by the time they reach Fresno State and the Western Athletic Conference, but everyone has a theory. From the most uninformed fan to the most plugged-in commissioner.

"It's all speculation," Johnson said in a recent interview. "Anything can happen."

Here's what we know for sure: The new-look Atlantic Coast Conference, rebuffed in its attempt to hold a championship with 11 teams, desires an even dozen. Notre Dame remains a pipe dream, so the ACC has its sights set on Boston College.

The Big East Conference, having already lost Miami, Virginia Tech and now possibly Boston College, then turns around and raids Conference USA. Louisville and Cincinnati are the two schools most prominently mentioned.

"The trigger is still the ACC," WAC commissioner Karl Benson said. "The ACC still has a piece to play in this. Do they go to 12 teams? And if the ACC does go to 12, does that stall or speed up the Big East's move?"

Now the dominoes are getting closer.

If Conference USA loses several schools, it will target WAC members Southern Methodist, Rice and Tulsa. SMU athletic director Jim Copeland has publicly acknowledged talks with Conference USA.

But wait a minute here. The WAC, with expansion plans of its own, covets Conference USA members Texas Christian, Houston and Tulane in an attempt to form a 12-team league. Benson confirmed meetings with officials from TCU and Houston.

Let's see: We've got Conference USA targeting WAC schools, and the WAC targeting Conference USA schools.

Who wins that tug-of-war?

At this point, probably Conference USA. Why? Because, as even Johnson admits, the WAC schools don't completely trust each other.

While the western WAC is suspicious of the the eastern WAC wanting to join Conference USA, the eastern WAC is suspicious of the western WAC plotting to join the Mountain West Conference, which is moving slower than frozen molasses on its own expansion plans.

"The Central Time Zone teams want us, the West teams, to commit," Johnson said. "I've told them and others have told them, 'We're committed to staying in the WAC.'

"But I think they're playing both sides, and rightfully so. If another conference was outwardly recruiting us, we'd be doing the same thing."

What role will the MWC play in this domino procession? No one is certain.

While the MWC has announced expansion criteria, its commissioner, Craig Thompson, insists the eight-team league hasn't decided whether to expand at all, let alone by how much.

Hawaii and TCU are considered the front-runners, according to a handful of MWC sources, with Fresno State, Boise State and Nevada also in the running.

Why is TCU so coveted? The Fort Worth-based school lies in a major media market and boasts a strong football program. And TCU has pull. SMU and Houston want to be in the same conference as the Horned Frogs.

"TCU is the key," Johnson said. "The rumor out there is the Mountain West wants TCU, but on the other hand TCU has supposedly told Conference USA they want to stay. Which do you believe?"

When asked if he had spoken with the MWC regarding possible membership for Fresno State, Johnson replied, "I've had ADs talk to me -- let's put it that way. You can't get a consensus from those people.

"You could ask all eight, and they'd give you eight different things. Some are for one team, some are for two, some are for four. Some are for no expansion. That's the hard part, to get a read on them."

Not that Fresno State isn't trying. The word out of Fort Collins, Colo., is that president John Welty met with new Colorado State president Larry Penley while the Bulldogs were in town last week.

Unlike Hawaii, however, which has publicly pined for MWC admission, Fresno State is keeping its intentions private. Those in the know say Boise State and Nevada also are lobbying the 5-year old league.

"You can't go out and be outwardly aggressive," Johnson said. "Because what happens if you don't get invited? You've destroyed relationships with people you're going to have to work with. And there's a certain protocol, too."

When will this muddled picture begin to clear itself? That's another mystery.

While the ACC, Big East and Conference USA appear to be moving rapidly, possibly resolving their membership issues in November, the MWC likely will drag its feet until next spring.

Meanwhile, Fresno State can do little more than wait. Such is life when you're the last domino.

Said Johnson: "We're in a balancing act of trying to protect our own interests, being loyal to the WAC, which you should do to protect your base, and exploring our options."

The worst-case scenario for Fresno State is for several Central Time Zone schools to bolt for the WAC, and the MWC to add, say, Hawaii. That would leave the Bulldogs in a conference with Boise State, Nevada, San Jose State and Texas-El Paso.

Does such an event worry Johnson?

"You bet it does," he said.

Just in case, the WAC has begun forming contingency plans. They include inviting Sun Belt Conference members Idaho, Utah State and New Mexico State.

We might be getting a little ahead of ourselves here. But when you're the last domino, it pays to fall forward.

The reporter can be reached at [email protected] or 441-6218.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for TCU to join the MWC. The MWC isn't going to be added to the BCS any faster than the CUSA; neither of them stand any chance at all. TCU is in the wrong time zone and a gazillion miles from the nearest MWC school, meaning that the travel budget will be at least as bad as before. The MWC is also too far away from the east coast media who don't care about MWC schools; and the West Coast media seems to really only care about the PAC-10. Say what you will, but the Froggie's AD isn't dumb. I doubt that he'd make that kind of bad business decision, when TCU is presently in a better place right now and even with realignment, won't be in a drastically weaker position in a conference that they are very competative in; the CUSA gets more east coast ink, and in theory, the CUSA will be adding some teams that TCU actually has some history and reasonable travel budgets. TCU now sits in about as good a position as any non-BCS school. I don't think they'd jeopardize that. :hmm:

<small>[ 10-10-2003, 11:12 AM: Message edited by: Greenwich Pony ]</small>

Plus, if it turns out the Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette and DePaul walk there will be a ton of tv and tournament money forfeited to the remaining members of CUSA. TCU could at least recoup some of that $5 Million it cost them to join. If they leave, that money goes out the window. MWC is reputed to be getting a smaller TV deal next time around. Their ratings have been putrid. The only reason to leave is if the MWC was going to be anointed as a BCS conference. As they said above, that ain't gonna happen.

<small>[ 10-10-2003, 11:43 AM: Message edited by: EastStang ]</small>

In defense of TCU, their strength has been football and you can’t blame them for being less than enthusiastic about adding perennial losers SMU, Rice and Tulsa.

Boston College appears willing to leave their geographical home, maybe TCU is as well.

All your points are valid, but theres another side. Yes, the MWCs tv contract is going to be smaller the next time around. But so is CUSAs. Now, how does the MWC increase its appeal in that tv negotiation? Get a hot team in a great media market, ie TCU. Now TCU has a decision to make and a conversation with ESPN to have. Does the MWC with TCU make more money per team OR does the CUSA with TCU make more per team? I'm afraid without Louisville that the answer will be the MWC will make significantly more because of BYU. If its enough to offset the travel costs, which is possible, then you never know what they will do. Exposure will be factored in too, so if the tv deal has more appearances in the MWC they may go west.

TCU isn't going anywhere BUT they hold cards and will use them to better themselves even if they stay in CUSA (maybe a refund of part of their admittance fee?) There is NO reason for them to go to MWC. Only a BCS conference would be more appealing than CUSA. CUSA would be pretty good in b'ball and a lot cheaper for travel for all sports. Some old rivalries reestablished also hold some appeal at the gate. Much more so than UNLV,Wyoming,Utah, AF, etc. TCU remembers the "crowds" brought in by the former WAC teams.

OP, that makes perfect sense if you ignore the tv contracts or just assume they are a wash. I'm not ready to do that personally, because we could all be headed for a disppointed if we assume things like we have before. The only way to speak objectively about it is if you know how much ESPN will offer for BYU, Colorado State, Air Force and TCU as opposed to Southern Miss, Memphis, Tulane and TCU as the marquee teams. Careful now.

I think you are right. TCU will play the card to leverage themselves, but other that emotion, there is no dramatically lift. Only a BCS conference invite would be meaningul. MWC will never graduate to that and the BE will be lucky to keep their's.

On the margin, at any give time you can give pro's and con's for either Conference but no dramatic benefit exists. BCS is not looking to dilute their rewards by inviting another conference. And the BE could lose access, especially if BC goes to ACC.

<small>[ 10-10-2003, 12:34 PM: Message edited by: Water Pony ]</small>

WP - as far as lift goes, if you were a tv exec looking at the following two leagues, who would you pay more for and show more?

1) Memphis, Southern Miss, TCU, Tulane, South Florida, Houston, UAB, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, Central Florida, (Marshall? maybe they decline)

or

2) BYU, Colorado State, Air Force, TCU, Utah, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawaii, Fresno St, Boise State.

I think they clearly pay more for #2, if no other reason than BYU. No one is comparable to BYU in #1. The question is how much do they pay for BYU.

However, there are a hell of a lot more TV sets on the east coast and the central time zone than there are in the mountain and Pacific time zones. Those west coast games that start at 10:00 pm on the east coast aren't going to have the ratings that the games played east of the mountain zone would. That is part of the reason C-USA has the TV deal it has now, don't you think?

part of it, sure, but the main reason was Louisville football and bball plus Cincy bball brought alot of tv value.

As exciting as that MWC sounds, the new C-USA would get better ratings.

Originally posted by Hoop Fan:
part of it, sure, but the main reason was Louisville football and bball plus Cincy bball brought alot of tv value.

First, basketball is about 15% of the tv deal, so that would not signficantly affect it. Second, Lou football? Yea, it's okay, but nothing compelling - neither is MWC football for that matter - neither is BCS football, save about 20 teams. The TV package will drop a bit, but mostly because the market for all TV packages is dropping.
And don't forget, the c-usa tv package was without USF, a team from a populated, talent-rich and eastern time zone state.

<small>[ 10-10-2003, 08:10 PM: Message edited by: BenW ]</small>

TCU, Hawaii, and Fresno trying to return to the MWC group that left them behind in the WAC is a real mind trip. The worst aspect of SMU's membership in the WAC now is the distance and time zone differences with the WAC West. Granted that the MWC is a slightly better conferecne than C-USA, I still prefer being grouped with the President of Tulane. he is going to make something happen in Div. 1-A, and is likely to given a concession by the BCS crowd that could benefit the C-USA since Tulane is a member of it. Thinking about all of these permutations and combinations makes my head hurt.