Started last season and did not make a bowl: Arkansas State.
The following BCS teams started 2-0 last year and did not go to a bowl:
Auburn
Arizona state
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa state
Indiana
K state
Now, if you really wanted to analyze this, you could say that Arkansas State was left out because the Sunbelt has few bowl tie-ins.
You could also say that a lot of BCS teams start out with consecutive home games to start the year against a lower rated non-BCS conference opponent and a I-AA team. Accordingly, you don't really know how good these teams are.
If I were talking to the players, I would just say that you haven't earned a damn thing yet.