Football Attendance - What Does It All Mean ?
Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:59 pmSince Friday is a "bail-out" early day at my office, I decided to kill some time by creating a spreadsheet review of our historical attendance at home games in an attempt to determine how, or if, a winning percentage influences attendance. Without consideration as to opponent/strength of schedule, competing events in the area, special promotions, weather or other factors that may effect attendance, I took a look solely at: (1) where we played our home games (Owenby, Cotton Bowl, Texas Stadium, or Ford) without allowances for home field changes, i.e. for example from 1972 to 1978 the Cotton Bowl was our "home field" yet we would play a couple of games each season during this timeframe at Texas Stadium, and (2) won/lost record.
I'm not a statistician, but in perusing the spreadsheet it appears to me the won/lost percentage does not carry as much weight in determining attendance as one would think. Without listing on this post all of the data (home attendance and home field from 1945 through 2004), a few stats jump out and are listed below that argue won/lost record might not be as significant as one might think:
1. Without consideration for the years 1949 and 1950 at the Cotton Bowl when the attendance averaged about 61,000 per game (combined won/lost for these two years was 11-8-1) the next highest average was 1979, the initial year, at Texas Stadium with an average of 55,578 and a won/lost record that year of 5-6. This was the first full year at Texas Stadium so that might account for the high average. But the year before, 1978 at the Cotton Bowl, the average was not bad at 51,960 and we had a record of 4-6-1. But look at the following few years at Texas Stadium: 1980 avg. attendance 36,773 with a record of 8-4; 1981 avg. attendance of 33,325 with a 10-1 record; 1982 avg attendance of 40,863 with a record of 11-0-1. Those were all great years, yet the losing record of 5-6 in 1979; and the losing record of 4-6-1 in 1978 both produced attendance that was significantly higher than the average attendance the following three years when the combined won/lost record was 29-5-1.
2. The post death penalty era is also interesting. From 1989 thru 1994 we played at Owenby; from 1995 thru 1999 we played at the Cotton Bowl and from 2000 on at Ford. The average attendance from 1989 thru 2004 was 19,875 per game. If you take a look at the best won/lost record turing this same timeframe, you find that 1996 thru 1998 yielded an overall record of 16-18 with an average attendance of 20,106. Not significantly higher than the average over the above referenced 16 year period when, as you all know, our record sucked !
3. 1968 and 1969 seasons both averaged the same attendance (38,860) yet the won/loss record of 1968 was 8-3 while the 1969 record was 3-7.
4. I think one of the most revealing stats takes place beginning 1959 when home attendance averaged 41,000 but dropped to the mid 20's from 1960 thru 1963. These three years were losing seasons for the Mustangs (combined 4-24-2). This forty percent drop was by far the largest drop in attendance and one could argue the won/lost record was the reason. But since this 40% drop was one of the highest over the years reviewed, I think the decline was fueled with the introduction of pro football to the area.
The above are just a few observations over 60 years of Mustang glory. So what does it all mean ? It means I'm bored to tears on a Friday wasting time with my new spreadsheet and waiting for the mighty Mustangs to level Navy on Saturday night in front of a capacity crowd !! Go Ponies !!
I'm not a statistician, but in perusing the spreadsheet it appears to me the won/lost percentage does not carry as much weight in determining attendance as one would think. Without listing on this post all of the data (home attendance and home field from 1945 through 2004), a few stats jump out and are listed below that argue won/lost record might not be as significant as one might think:
1. Without consideration for the years 1949 and 1950 at the Cotton Bowl when the attendance averaged about 61,000 per game (combined won/lost for these two years was 11-8-1) the next highest average was 1979, the initial year, at Texas Stadium with an average of 55,578 and a won/lost record that year of 5-6. This was the first full year at Texas Stadium so that might account for the high average. But the year before, 1978 at the Cotton Bowl, the average was not bad at 51,960 and we had a record of 4-6-1. But look at the following few years at Texas Stadium: 1980 avg. attendance 36,773 with a record of 8-4; 1981 avg. attendance of 33,325 with a 10-1 record; 1982 avg attendance of 40,863 with a record of 11-0-1. Those were all great years, yet the losing record of 5-6 in 1979; and the losing record of 4-6-1 in 1978 both produced attendance that was significantly higher than the average attendance the following three years when the combined won/lost record was 29-5-1.
2. The post death penalty era is also interesting. From 1989 thru 1994 we played at Owenby; from 1995 thru 1999 we played at the Cotton Bowl and from 2000 on at Ford. The average attendance from 1989 thru 2004 was 19,875 per game. If you take a look at the best won/lost record turing this same timeframe, you find that 1996 thru 1998 yielded an overall record of 16-18 with an average attendance of 20,106. Not significantly higher than the average over the above referenced 16 year period when, as you all know, our record sucked !
3. 1968 and 1969 seasons both averaged the same attendance (38,860) yet the won/loss record of 1968 was 8-3 while the 1969 record was 3-7.
4. I think one of the most revealing stats takes place beginning 1959 when home attendance averaged 41,000 but dropped to the mid 20's from 1960 thru 1963. These three years were losing seasons for the Mustangs (combined 4-24-2). This forty percent drop was by far the largest drop in attendance and one could argue the won/lost record was the reason. But since this 40% drop was one of the highest over the years reviewed, I think the decline was fueled with the introduction of pro football to the area.
The above are just a few observations over 60 years of Mustang glory. So what does it all mean ? It means I'm bored to tears on a Friday wasting time with my new spreadsheet and waiting for the mighty Mustangs to level Navy on Saturday night in front of a capacity crowd !! Go Ponies !!