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Doing a little speculation here. My opinion is still we would most likely need 7 wins, but the outlook is looking much better that there might be a giant cluster of 6-win teams. In that case, I think Hawaii or Ft Worth would want SMU for ticket sale purposes.

UCF-Marshall game is tomorrow night. A Marshall win would be a serious help. In that case, there would most likely be 4 teams with 7+ wins (not counting SMU), making SMU a good candidate for the 5th spot, regardless of 6 or 7 wins. (Army would also have to beat Navy or Air Force to be eligible, so it is likely their will be 6 C-USA spots--so realistically there could be 5 7-win teams and SMU could still get in with 6 wins. If there are 4 7-win teams and 2 spots for 6-win teams, I think we get one for sure.)



Teams that will most likely have 7+ wins:

Houston
ECU

Probably get 7:

Marshall (some big games left, but only need to win two out of four)


6-7 win bubble teams:

SMU
Southern Miss (need 2 of last 3 to get 7 wins--against Marshall, Tulsa, ECU)
UCF (need 3 have Tulane, UAB, Marshall--also have Texas, Houston left)



Unlikely to get 7 wins:

UAB (need to run the table, including ECU, UCF)
UTEP (need to run table--including SMU and Marshall)
Tulsa (need 3 out of 4 including huge upsets, still have Houston, ECU, So Miss)


Very unlikely to be bowl eligible:

Rice
Tulane
Memphis

lets get two more wins then we shall talk bowl

I have decided to take a new outlook. I am tired of always assuming we will blow it in the end. It is time to at least consider the possibility that we could pull it off!

huskerpony wrote:Doing a little speculation here. My opinion is still we would most likely need 7 wins, but the outlook is looking much better that there might be a giant cluster of 6-win teams. In that case, I think Hawaii or Ft Worth would want SMU for ticket sale purposes.

UCF-Marshall game is tomorrow night. A Marshall win would be a serious help. In that case, there would most likely be 4 teams with 7+ wins (not counting SMU), making SMU a good candidate for the 5th spot, regardless of 6 or 7 wins. (Army would also have to beat Navy or Air Force to be eligible, so it is likely their will be 6 C-USA spots--so realistically there could be 5 7-win teams and SMU could still get in with 6 wins. If there are 4 7-win teams and 2 spots for 6-win teams, I think we get one for sure.)



Teams that will most likely have 7+ wins:

Houston
ECU

Probably get 7:

Marshall (some big games left, but only need to win two out of four)


6-7 win bubble teams:

SMU
Southern Miss (need 2 of last 3 to get 7 wins--against Marshall, Tulsa, ECU)
UCF (need 3 have Tulane, UAB, Marshall--also have Texas, Houston left)



Unlikely to get 7 wins:

UAB (need to run the table, including ECU, UCF)
UTEP (need to run table--including SMU and Marshall)
Tulsa (need 3 out of 4 including huge upsets, still have Houston, ECU, So Miss)


Very unlikely to be bowl eligible:

Rice
Tulane
Memphis

Hawaii bowl wants JJ to come to them, it would be a probable sellout for them and they get 1st choice after the Liberty bowl.

I JUST DONT WANT hopes get blown out

if we go to a bowl, we go to hawaii

i heard from the boss himself

live and in person