Lessons from NIU on Winnng and Bowls

[Water Pony]

The realities of college football can be well summed up with NIU.

First, Joe Novak (former Assist. Coach for years) inherited a very bad team (long losing streak) and program with no history of success. His first three years were terrible, winning one or two at most. After six years, they are "instant" winners. Administration was absolutely committed to him and the program and gave their support.

Second, ranked 10 in the BCS, their chances of going to a BCS Bowl (if they remain undefeated, which is not a given with Bowling Green, Toledo, Miami of Ohio, etc.) are slim. With the exception of a few teams in the top five, BCS schools would need to lose at least three game to create the possibility of an opening.

NIU is tenth because of their strength of schedule today. Their upcoming MAC schedule will pull that down. The reality is Mid-Major's Strength of Schedule will always handicap a great Mid-Major Team.

Here is an article highlighting the dilemma for them, TCU, etc.

"NIU's SLIPPER TOO SMALL FOR A BIG-MONEY BOWL"

By Bill Jauss
Tribune staff reporter
Published October 21, 2003

Northern Illinois certainly would welcome the multimillion-dollar payout from a Bowl Championship Series game should the Huskies go unbeaten and defy conventional wisdom by drawing an invitation. Northern is ranked 10th in the first BCS standings released on Monday.

But coach Joe Novak is a realist. He said that despite won-lost records and national rankings, all bowls are virtually closed to NIU, except the two contractually tied to the Mid-American Conference. Both will be played on Dec. 26. In the Motor City Bowl in Detroit, a MAC team will oppose the No. 7 team from the Big Ten. And in the GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Ala., a MAC team will face a school from Conference USA. The payout for those two bowls is $750,000 per team.

"It's all about money, how well you travel and your appeal on TV," Novak said. "I remember when I coached at Indiana in '93. We had a very good 9-3 team. Our kids were crushed when the Hall of Fame Bowl passed us up and took Michigan with a 7-4 record.

"We went to the Independence Bowl, and there's nothing wrong with that. But the kids learned what goes into the selection process. It's all about money."

A team has to finish in the top six in the BCS standings to guarantee itself a bid and must be among the top 12 to be eligible. Because of the schedule it plays, NIU has no realistic shot at an automatic bid. Despite victories over Maryland, Alabama and Iowa State, the Huskies (7-0, 3-0) are hurt by the performance of the Mid-American Conference. Although the conference has two ranked teams for the first time in 30 years--No. 23 Bowling Green plays host to NIU on Saturday--the league's 14 schools are a combined 9-26 in non-conference games against Division I-A teams.

The BCS was set up by college football's six biggest conferences before the 1998 season to determine a national champion without a playoff system.

BCS standings

RANK, TEAM AP USA BCS

1. Oklahoma 1 1 2.77

2. Miami 2 2 4.10

3. Virginia Tech 3 3 10.23

4. Georgia 4 5 12.99

5. Florida State 6.5 7 13.14

6. Ohio State 8 8 13.20

7. Southern Cal 5 4 13.83

8. Purdue 10 10 21.50

9. Wash. St. 6.5 6 23.96

10. N. Illinois 12 14 26.00

<small>[ 10-22-2003, 05:39 AM: Message edited by: Water Pony ]</small>

[JasonB]

What is really going ot hurt them in the BCS is when they lose to Bowling Green this weekend.

[OldPony]

You can onl7y beat the teams you play. I guarantee that you get more points by beating Iowa St or Baylor than you do by beating Miami of Ohio. Self promotion runs rampant at BCS.

[Charleston Pony]

the problem NIU has is that they have to beat BGSU (6-1) and Toledo (5-2) on the road and still play Eastern Michigan (1-7) and Buffalo (0-8). They could lose one or both of the 1st two games and no matter how badly they beat the latter two, their BCS rating will DROP just because they play those teams. The, if NIU wins out, they have to beat Miami,Ohio (6-1) or Marshall in the MAC championship game. I'm pulling for them to go 13-0 because I want to see how the BCS explains either their "backing up" to #13 in the polls despite their record, or explains why despite their top 10 finish, the bowls ultimately get to choose and decided to take a Big XII/SEC team with 2 losses instead of NIU.