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Posted on Wed, Oct. 29, 2003

Horned Frogs would do best to go West
Gil LeBreton commentary


Star-Telegram

Gil LeBreton


It's a beautiful day in this neighborhood,

A beautiful day for a neighbor.

Would you be mine?

Could you be mine?

With all due respect to the late Mr. Rogers and his famous song, it is not a beautiful day in the TCU 'hood.

Urban renewal is about to sweep again across the college sports landscape.

Hurricanes along Tobacco Road. Rick Pitino back at Madison Square Garden.

And the Horned Frogs, having undergone the ultimate football makeover, could end up all dressed up with nowhere fancy to go.

Yes, things have been swell for TCU living in the Conference USA neighborhood. The Mobile Bowl, much like It's a Wonderful Life, is a grand holiday tradition.

But Louisville and Cincinnati, to name at least two, appear ready to defect to the Big East. Their spots in C-USA would be taken by TCU's former campfire buddies, Rice and SMU.

Yee-haw. Can a Beatles reunion be far behind?

There is no easy way to write this. TCU's athletic future seems destined for a happy, but not a fairy-tale, ending.

You dreamers who think the Big 12 or Southeastern Conference is going to come calling for the Frogs need to back away from the margarita machine.

The Big 12 may be the happiest family since the Cleavers. And if the SEC ever has another vacancy, its first phone call will go to Florida State.

TCU likely will be left with two choices -- remain in a restructured C-USA with the likes of Tulsa, Marshall, the Owls and Ponies, or pack their saddlebags for the Mountain West Conference.

Yesiree, rounding up the wagons again with old Southwest Conference sidekicks Rice and SMU has a certain symmetry to it. Reminds me of the campfire scene from Blazing Saddles.

No doubt that TCU fans would enjoy the road trips to Dallas, Houston and Tulsa. But here's the problem:

San Jose at Rice -- attendance, 15,153.

Nevada at Tulsa -- attendance, 17,816.

Boise State at SMU -- announced crowd, 10,109.

I thought one of the reasons TCU has spent millions in recent seasons was to distinguish itself from football atmospheres such as that.

The Mountain West, admittedly, is no SEC, with 80,000-seat stadiums sold out every week. But the football reputations of BYU, Air Force, Colorado State, Utah and Nevada-Las Vegas won't make anyone snicker.

From a simple football fan's standpoint, which would you rather see -- TCU at Rice or TCU at Colorado State?

And which of those two games would a future TV executive rather spend his money on?

TCU alums are distressed at the notion of moving back into the Pacific time zone. But for the four games that the Frogs would be playing in the western states each season, that problem could easily be alleviated by conference-mandated earlier kickoff times.

Extra travel expenses? Show me the plane tickets. A chartered flight to San Diego these days reportedly isn't that much more than a charter to Tulsa.

And the golf, track and tennis teams wouldn't be flying to Hawaii or Vegas every other weekend. Conferences crown their non-revenue champions these days with a one-shot spring tournament week.

The Horned Frogs could get used to the Mountain West neighborhood.

Alas, don't expect a BCS carrot to be on the end of TCU's conference stick, wherever the Frogs end up.

If and when the watered-down Big East is stripped of its automatic Bowl Championship Series spot, the likelihood is not that the BCS would anoint a replacement conference, but rather either fatten the existing teams' purses or dole out the cash on an additional at-large basis.

And if there are more BCS at-large bids to go around, TCU's football chances would be far better playing the BYUs and Colorado States every week than sitting around the old Texas campfire.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gil LeBreton, (817) 390-7760 [email protected]

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in other words what he is saying is that NOBODY cares about the pretty graduation rates of Tulsa, SMU, Rice and Tulane or their high-minded admission standards because those programs SUCK and are destined to circle the drain into Division 1A oblivion unless radical changes are made in their Models to ensure that they can compete at that level. TCU has proven it can be done but the others are not willing to make those same commitments and have simply been riding the coattails of the SWC, WAC-16, WAC and now CUSA. We are a group of redheaded step-children with which nobody wants to associate.

Boise State at SMU -- announced crowd, 10,109.

I was there. There ain't no way!

Of course TCU is too good for the likes of us. Let'em go! Then again, maybe the MWC is not ready to expand at this time. Wouldn't that be a story!

Originally posted by Sam I Am:
Of course TCU is too good for the likes of us. Let'em go! Then again, maybe the MWC is not ready to expand at this time. Wouldn't that be a story!

Let them go... nationally, NOBODY CARES ABOUT FOOTBALL west of the Mississippi unless you come from the big 12

...and yes, I did leave them pac 10 foo's out. - they may have some good programs, but they get no props

If tcu leaves, all I can say is:
<img src="http://westernposterpage.com/tombstone.jpg" alt=" - " />

...well... BYE!

TCU to the MWC that's rich. CUSA will continue to have UH, Army/ Navy, Tulane and USM. Figure those teams equate to UH equates to CSU. Army/Navy equates to AFA. BYU would only come every other year at best (maybe every four). Figure SMU, Rice and Tulsa equate to Wyoming, San Diego State, and UNLV. None of those teams will draw well in Ft. Worth. The MWC is about to get a huge reduction in their TV contract to make it similar to the WAC deal. But hey, if the Froggies want to increase their athletic budget for non-revenue sports through the roof, they should absolutely join the Mountain West Conference and pay a huge entry fee and forfeit the exit fees that CUSA collects from Louisville, Cincy, Marquette and DePaul. I don't think the Frog administration is that stupid. If I were TCU I would stay in CUSA, win the conference year in and year out, keep my costs down, and wait for an invite to a BCS conference. The MWC will not get a BCS invite except in their dreams.

From what I have heard, their AD has convinced their administration and Board that the MWC is where they need to be. The coaches supposedly aren't too keen about the idea. I hope that if this happens, we will continue to play each other in OOC games...but we had better get better soon or they won't be interested in that either.

Thanks Texas for breaking up the SWC...I will hate you forever you greedy SOB's.

Originally posted by Sam I Am:
Of course TCU is too good for the likes of us. Let'em go! Then again, maybe the MWC is not ready to expand at this time. Wouldn't that be a story!

The best part is that MWC has no chance at BCS membership. A rule that even the BCS conferences must adhere to is that the champion of a conference must average a #12 BCS ranking over a 4-year period for that conference to keep BCS membership.

The Mountain West has yet to have a school finish in the standings.

Originally posted by 50's PONY:
Posted on Wed, Oct. 29, 2003

No doubt that TCU fans would enjoy the road trips to Dallas, Houston and Tulsa. But here's the problem:

San Jose at Rice -- attendance, 15,153.
Nevada at Tulsa -- attendance, 17,816.
Boise State at SMU -- announced crowd, 10,109.

I thought one of the reasons TCU has spent millions in recent seasons was to distinguish itself from football atmospheres such as that.

What a perfect example this guy unintentional makes of the appeal of western schools in the southwest.

I've been predicting TCU to the MWC since May. Call it foolish pride or whatever you want, its probably gonna happen sooner or later. You can sit here and theorize about travel costs all you want, but you don't know the tv and revenue side of the equation. The Mountain Goats saw value in Texas before in 1997, they just overextended at that time. This time they are going to pick very carefully, make the proper concessions and they will go to 12 like everyone else. TCU will avoid us like the plague, because thats what we have forced them to do. Its no coincidence you don't see any statements about CUSA coming out of TCU even though SMU has been running its mouth constantly in the press about a regional conference. TCU has said they don't care about that, and I guarantee you they are seriously considering an offer from the Goats right now. The western division of CUSA is still attractive for us, but its so weak at the moment its unbelievable without the Frogs.

Originally posted by Hoop Fan:
I've been predicting TCU to the MWC since May. Call it foolish pride or whatever you want, its probably gonna happen sooner or later. You can sit here and theorize about travel costs all you want, but you don't know the tv and revenue side of the equation. The Mountain Goats saw value in Texas before in 1997, they just overextended at that time. This time they are going to pick very carefully, make the proper concessions and they will go to 12 like everyone else. TCU will avoid us like the plague, because thats what we have forced them to do. Its no coincidence you don't see any statements about CUSA coming out of TCU even though SMU has been running its mouth constantly in the press about a regional conference. TCU has said they don't care about that, and I guarantee you they are seriously considering an offer from the Goats right now. The western division of CUSA is still attractive for us, but its so weak at the moment its unbelievable without the Frogs.

Good for them...

As for the TV deal, the Mountain West is looking at a flat deal with no exposure on ABC. MWC has performed terribly in the ratings (the WAC games have higher HH ratings - that's how bad it is), and the MWC has been outperformed by the Big XII and Pac 10 in Mountain West markets.

ABC isn't going to allocate the dollars to the Mountain West, when it needs to re-up deals with the BCS and several of the BCS conferences between 2005-2008.

Particularly when you consider the substantial investment they just made in the NBA, a partner that will no doubt want airtime during the weekdays (the prime non-BCS tv air times), it is tough to believe ESPN will make significant partnership deals with non-BCS conferences.

CUSA and the rest of the non-BCS schools are looking at the same fate...

While I fully recognize that I'd love it if SMU had TCU's record, I have to take umbrage with the notion that if they don't get in the BCS, it will somehow all be SMU's fault.

Nobody put a gun to their head and told them to schedule both Army and Navy. Army hasn't won a game all year. Navy's won 5 this year, but when TCU scheduled them, they were probably coming off their 0-11 season. BTW, Vandy isn't a powerhouse, either. Throw us under the bus, too, and they scheduled 3 non-conference games with perrenial losers in addition to having Army on their conference schedule.

BTW, TCU's rankings might be a little higher if they'd beat a conference foe by more than 7 points, too.

TCU's problems are of their own design.

<small>[ 10-29-2003, 10:06 AM: Message edited by: Dooby ]</small>

The BCS rankings no longer factor in margin of victory, actually.

TCU isn't going anywhere.

Originally posted by FloridaMustang:
The BCS rankings no longer factor in margin of victory, actually.

TCU isn't going anywhere.

Not true. Coaches consider marging of victory. Sportswriters consider margin of victory. Fans consider margin of victory. Bowl committees consider margin of victory.

Regardless, under the BCS formula, beating SMU may not be a "quality win", but neither is beating Vanderbilt. Nuts to them.