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This is a very interesting game. Especially since our defense played so well last week.

Most have heard that our #117 (last place) offense is going against their #117 defense. More on that later.

The more interesting part if our #62 defense vs. their #17 offense. When you break that #17 offense down it becomes less intimidating and surprising.

La. Tech has the #73 rushing team in YPG but it is #24 in YPP helped no doubt by being mixed into the majority of plays devoted to passing. Surprising though. Ryan Moats is #3 in the conference with over 100 ypg rushing.

The passing is also surprising. Even though La. Tech is the #8 passing team in the country in YPG they are #56 in ypp and #64 in passing efficiency. They are stoppable. Also, as evidence, they are #64 in scoring.

SMU's strength has been run defense (#55) but last week we stuffed a Fresno St. offense that, in it's prior two games, had a pass efficiency higher than La. Tech. So there is hope there.

Regarding our offense vs. La. Tech, that is a wild card. They are bad and so are we. La. Tech is #98 in run defense by YPG and #108 by YPP. They are #117 in pass D in YPG and #109 by YPP and #95 by pass eff. D. Total D is #117 by YPG and #116 by YPP.

They will need to try to commit to stop the run and to force us to pass (like most) but especailly to shore up their run defense vs. our #85 run offense (but #109 in YPP.) This would force SMUto rely on our #112 pass offense by YPG and YPP. The problem for SMU has been the completion % at #116 (44.3%.) This number would be worse if sacks were included. SMU must get the ball off and not drop passes. This may be aided by the fact that La. Tech has only 14 sacks this season but SMU has allowed the most in the WAC at 34 and that considering the number of running plays we run is really bad.

On KOR we may have an opportunity as La. Tech gives up an average of 25 yards and Rutledge averages 28.7. Hopefully we won't find out more than once.

La. Tech has an advantage in net punting of 7.4 yards and 1.5 on the returns for about a 9 yard swing.

A key place SMU must fix is turnovers. La. Tech has the top player in the WAC in forced fumbles and another in the top 10. Hold that ball!

If we can defend like last week-end and get some offense going we can win this.

Optimists can always find solace in numbers. LaTech is a far superior team. Don't set yourself up for a huge disappointment. Look for realistic improvements in the passing game and with some of the young guys getting a chance right now.

OP - the numbers are the numbers. La. Tech is not a great or probably even a good team. They beat UTEP by 3 and lost to Nevada by 8. We are right in there.

Are they better than us? Yes. Can we win IF some things improve (offense and TO margin?) Yes. Will those things change? Maybe. I hope so but I would not count on it. I am not saying we will win but we are not that far away. It is within reach.

Should we play Wallis because we think we have our "best chance of winning" or avoid playing other freshmen for that reason NO!

I am not trying to paint a rosy picture just what then numbers show and then throw in a little "what if."

These numbers are provided for the interest of the board. I am not trying to make a point. If they are not of interest, fine. I do not need to spend the time.

<small>[ 11-05-2003, 07:27 AM: Message edited by: The PonyGrad ]</small>

Keep it up, Ponygrad, I am a number junkie.

Thanks for the feedback.

Since the question was asked in a new thread:

We are on the eve of going 0-10 for the first time in school history. SMU is a 20 point underdog to La Tech. Apart from wishful thinking and old school loyalty, does anybody really think we can win? If so, how?

This thread is my answer.

If we avoid breakdowns on defense. Avoid turnovers. And generate some offense against their pourous D we can win.

That's why I think we should just put Chris Phillips in and leave him in. Let him play a full game and lets see what happens. He is a fast, option style QB and with those type, just give them the ball and let them control the game....None of this Wallis/Phillips/Wallis/Phillips BS anymore...

....did any one see that since Vince Young has been the starting QB they have run a single play rarely previously used-I forgot the exact name-but something that the QB read option-up to 19 times in a single game. Sit Tate on the bench and begin the design the offense around the enormous talents of Phillips which utilize his instinctive talents. The simpler the better. Put him in the shotgun and let him pick his hole ala Young, Flanagan and Vick. This ain't rocket science, or complicated offensive philosophy but rather just utiliozing the talent you have. We are the worst offensive team in Division 1A-it certainly can't get worse.

I completely agree. Although Phillips is no Vick, the point still applies. What happened at Florida when they stopped rotating QB's a put a talented freshmen in?? I am definitely not comparing Florida and SMU, but I am saying that the concept is the same for Florida, SMU, or any team....ROTATING QBS DOESNT WORK. Let's put Phillips in and see what he can do. It can't get much worse...

<small>[ 11-08-2003, 09:46 AM: Message edited by: CoxSMU ]</small>

Originally posted by The PonyGrad:
OP - the numbers are the numbers. La. Tech is not a great or probably even a good team. They beat UTEP by 3 and lost to Nevada by 8. We are right in there.

Are they better than us? Yes. Can we win IF some things improve (offense and TO margin?) Yes. Will those things change? Maybe. I hope so but I would not count on it. I am not saying we will win but we are not that far away. It is within reach.

Should we play Wallis because we think we have our "best chance of winning" or avoid playing other freshmen for that reason NO!

I am not trying to paint a rosy picture just what then numbers show and then throw in a little "what if."

These numbers are provided for the interest of the board. I am not trying to make a point. If they are not of interest, fine. I do not need to spend the time.

Good stuff, TPG - some optimism, some realism.

Hey WebGuys, can we nominate this guy for Poster of the Week? Check out his breakdowns of the games - he does his homework.

Phillips ain't Vick but he does have 90 yards rushing in probably about 3 quarters of play. Not bad for the worst offense in the country. He's definitely another read the defense has to consider rather than loading up on KK and blitzing the QB.

Bottom line, even if we can't throw, Phillips, at the very least, gives us 2 threats to run, rather than just KK, and that can only be a good thing.

I hope Bennett feels the same way we do on this one. I think he will do the smart thing in this game. Wallis has no future as our QB. Our team hasn't won a game and is dead last in Offense...We have absolutely nothing to lose. I guarentee if Phillips goes in there we will see improvement. We may not win the game. But we will see improvement. At this point, we need to abandon trying to take baby steps and we need to do anything possible to try and take giant steps towards a different offense...

Stallion and KnuckleStang are right - two running threats are better than one.
Play Phillips.

Listening to Bennett right now, he sounds like he's going to try to stick with Phillips. But he still wouldn't rule out putting Wallis in. Let's hope he gives him more than 2 series before he makes that decision.