SMU, TCU likely a package deal for big conferences
Posted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:03 pmEDIT: 40,000 SMU alumni in DFW area according to (http://smu.edu/bushlibrary/facts/facts- ... alumni.asp) and 30,000 Tech alumni in DFW according to Dallas Business Journal http://dallas.bizjournals.com/dallas/st ... ily22.html)
Disclaimer: This is my commentary on the situation and does not represent any inside information.
Reason Conferences are Expanding
Outside of the MWC and it's futile effort to reach BCS by expansion (what they really need is to contract and get rid of weak programs), there is one, and only one reason, a conference would expand: to make more money. In today's world, that translates to getting better TV deals (for many conferences, it translates to starting your own TV network, getting that network onto cable systems, and making money off of subscriber fees). To make more money off of TV, you have to capture large markets. Simply having a presence in the market is not enough, as only in a market that is captured is a conference going to be able to demand their network be on cable and make money off of subscriber fees.
TCU alone does not capture the DFW market
Many people have said that a conference wanting to capture the DFW market would take TCU, but it has been shown that TCU cannot fully deliver the market. The Mountain West Sports Network (aka the mtn.) has not been picked up on cable in the Metroplex. TCU simply does not capture enough of the market to make the cable companies add "the mtn." to their lineup. Hence, the MWC is losing out on millions of dollars of subscriber fees per year that it could be making if it captured the DFW market.
Other conferences will note TCU's failure to capture the DFW market. If they take TCU, they will also take another school with a DFW presence so that they do not miss out on millions of dollars of subscriber fees (and advertising dollars which will shoot up due to increased viewership).
How adding SMU helps a conference that takes TCU
SMU has a large Dallas alumni base (30,000 or more - not completely sure how large it is) which when added to TCU's DFW alumni base would represent a sizable portion of the cable subscribers in the Metroplex. At that point, cable companies begin to see the value in adding Conference X's network to its system, giving subscriber fees to Conference X and allowing that conference to make millions of dollars that they would not have access to with only one of the two schools (SMU or TCU).
Why SMU, and not other schools?
Texas, Texas A&M, and OU are not going to be in the same conference as TCU...they want to differentiate themselves from TCU so that they can use their perceived superior conference as a recruiting advantage (Lord knows they need one because the Frogs have built a strong program).
OSU and Texas Tech have decent-sized Dallas alumni bases, but not as large as SMU's (OrangeConnection.org gives OSU's Dallas alumni number as 11,000, and while Texas Tech's Dallas alumni number is not readily available, a good estimate is twice the OSU number, since Texas Tech enrolls 150% of the amount of students that OSU does and Texas Tech is located in the same state that Dallas is).
Baylor's worldwide alumni base is close to equal the size of SMU's, but due to Baylor's location in Waco, not quite as large of a percentage of their alumni as SMU's live in the Metroplex.
UNT has a large DFW alumni base, but their program has fallen on hard times and their alumni do not show very good loyalty to their school as measured in percentage of Dallas alumni who attend home football games, etc. Simply put, a large amount of UNT alumni are not likely to tune in to a UNT game, and the likely viewer numbers are too low to force a cable system to add the Conference X network.
Of course, the final reason is that SMU is a hometown team and many people not affiliated with the school will tune in to see the hometown team, whereas the casual interest in, say, Baylor would be far less.
Disclaimer: This is my commentary on the situation and does not represent any inside information.
Reason Conferences are Expanding
Outside of the MWC and it's futile effort to reach BCS by expansion (what they really need is to contract and get rid of weak programs), there is one, and only one reason, a conference would expand: to make more money. In today's world, that translates to getting better TV deals (for many conferences, it translates to starting your own TV network, getting that network onto cable systems, and making money off of subscriber fees). To make more money off of TV, you have to capture large markets. Simply having a presence in the market is not enough, as only in a market that is captured is a conference going to be able to demand their network be on cable and make money off of subscriber fees.
TCU alone does not capture the DFW market
Many people have said that a conference wanting to capture the DFW market would take TCU, but it has been shown that TCU cannot fully deliver the market. The Mountain West Sports Network (aka the mtn.) has not been picked up on cable in the Metroplex. TCU simply does not capture enough of the market to make the cable companies add "the mtn." to their lineup. Hence, the MWC is losing out on millions of dollars of subscriber fees per year that it could be making if it captured the DFW market.
Other conferences will note TCU's failure to capture the DFW market. If they take TCU, they will also take another school with a DFW presence so that they do not miss out on millions of dollars of subscriber fees (and advertising dollars which will shoot up due to increased viewership).
How adding SMU helps a conference that takes TCU
SMU has a large Dallas alumni base (30,000 or more - not completely sure how large it is) which when added to TCU's DFW alumni base would represent a sizable portion of the cable subscribers in the Metroplex. At that point, cable companies begin to see the value in adding Conference X's network to its system, giving subscriber fees to Conference X and allowing that conference to make millions of dollars that they would not have access to with only one of the two schools (SMU or TCU).
Why SMU, and not other schools?
Texas, Texas A&M, and OU are not going to be in the same conference as TCU...they want to differentiate themselves from TCU so that they can use their perceived superior conference as a recruiting advantage (Lord knows they need one because the Frogs have built a strong program).
OSU and Texas Tech have decent-sized Dallas alumni bases, but not as large as SMU's (OrangeConnection.org gives OSU's Dallas alumni number as 11,000, and while Texas Tech's Dallas alumni number is not readily available, a good estimate is twice the OSU number, since Texas Tech enrolls 150% of the amount of students that OSU does and Texas Tech is located in the same state that Dallas is).
Baylor's worldwide alumni base is close to equal the size of SMU's, but due to Baylor's location in Waco, not quite as large of a percentage of their alumni as SMU's live in the Metroplex.
UNT has a large DFW alumni base, but their program has fallen on hard times and their alumni do not show very good loyalty to their school as measured in percentage of Dallas alumni who attend home football games, etc. Simply put, a large amount of UNT alumni are not likely to tune in to a UNT game, and the likely viewer numbers are too low to force a cable system to add the Conference X network.
Of course, the final reason is that SMU is a hometown team and many people not affiliated with the school will tune in to see the hometown team, whereas the casual interest in, say, Baylor would be far less.