westexSMU wrote:Surprise, surprise, a San Antonio Express News associated press article says today that the Big Ten is looking into possibly taking TEXAS etc. Big 10 commissioner says that gaining a foothold in the South and extending the reach of the league"s lucrative television network are the two biggest factors...Do you think maybe a another big conference, like the SEC, might just show their hand soon ???
The smoke is getting thick. Remember that the Big 10 network (49% owned by Fox) is driving this - they need to get the network added to as many cable packages as possible. They get a lot more money by adding subscribers within their footprint (.70 to .80 cents per) then they do outside the footprint (~.05 cents per). So, I really think U Texas is the bell cow. Texas delivers you the whole fragging state (especially if you believe A&M would come with due to politics). Not to mention allows the Big 10 to recruit the most talent laden state in the nation. And of course Notre Dame, while not expanding the footprint, would add huge national appeal.
Beyond the obvious big names now. When you look at southern schools, AAU members, and big media markets, there are just a few names that jump out.
Firstly Georgia Tech. It sure is suspicious that GT was added to the AAU just a few months ago. I do think my Jackets would indeed bolt for the Big 10, unless the SEC wanted to try and lock the Big 10 out of Atlanta and defensively invite GT back into the conference (many don't know or remember that GT was a founding SEC member). GT would be naturally concerned about ending up in a trashed ACC, especially if the SEC decides to match the expansion pace. Tech could use the money badly.
Maryland - helps deliver both DC and Baltimore TV markets. A real natural fit, although they have deep ACC roots. Other blue blood ACC schools fit the bill as well: UNC, Duke, Virginia. It may not seem they command a big TV market, but UNC/Duke would deliver combined ton of subscribers in Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, and Winston/Greensboro. Virginia probably doesn't help the network much. Maryland is the most likely, and also needs the money the most. UNC and Duke seem to be remote chances - they enjoy running the ACC show too much. You never know, if GT and Maryland are both in, it could tip the scales. Don't underestimate how much UNC/Duke basketball is worth as a franchise. That played a big role in the huge new ACC TV contract.
Florida. Tough sell probably to get them to leave the SEC, but they fit the stated requirements. With money not a big issue at Florida, I don't see why they would want to leave.
Vanderbilt. I think they pretty much came out and said they would be very,very surprised at a scenario that would cause them to bolt the SEC. However, their academics would fit much better in the Big 10. They could be swayed, IMO.
And of course there plenty of decent fits closer to the existing geographical footprint (Missouri, Nebraska, Rutgers, Pitt, Syracuse).
I cannot wait for this to play out. SMU could well benefit from this, especially if the Texas boys jump ship on the Big 12. I would imagine Oklahoma could be getting a bit nervous.
Posted: Wed May 19, 2010 11:25 am