It's still about the $$$
Posted: Sat Jun 12, 2010 3:06 pmNothing new but are we overlooking the buyout $$$$......from poster on Baylor site....
Assuming the big 12 south members bolt to Pac 10 next week, there are several reasons why the "forgotten 5" would raid the MWC, and not vice versa:
1) Money: If Kansas and K-State bolt to MWC (or Baylor/Iowa St. for that matter), they would be the 8th and 9th votes to dissolve the conference...and would forfeit the extra money owed to them by the other defectors. By agreeing to dissolve the conference, Nebraska, CU, UT, and the other defectors would not have to pay the defection penalty for 2010 and 2011. But by staying put, the schools ensure a significant cash increase over the next two years. (Around +$70 million between the forgotten 5)
2) Exit clause: While the remaining forgotten 5 members would have to forgo substantial cash to leave the big 12, the MWC member schools could leave at any time, with no penalty. Additionally, given the uncertainty of college athletics these days...having a buy-out provision in a conference agreement almost certainty has to be a requirement from a security stand point...especially given the geographic location of both conferences. Say the Pac 10, Big 10, Big East, or SEC decided they wanted to expand some time down the road....and lets even assume that the MWC were a BCS conference. Which conference would they likely look to raid first? The one which doesn't penalize their members financially for leaving. Even TCU fans will admit that stability is crucial for the long term viability of a BCS conference. (If there are people in the MWC that think loyalty alone will hold their conference together, they are in for a rude awakening.) Even now, the Pac 10 is eying Utah if A&M goes to the SEC....and I haven't seen any rebukes by Utah if the Pac 10 were to offer them next week.
3) Fox TV Contract: The MWC fox TV contract isn't up for renewal until 2016 where as the big 12 fox contract is up for renewal in 2012. Any schools that join the MWC in 2012 will have to split the same piece of pie the current members are receiving now. I do think the MWC is due to receive a significant pay raise in 2016, but if the best MWC teams were to join the big 12 forgotten 5, the MWC teams stand to to receive a bigger pay raise four years sooner.
4) ESPN TV Contract: While the fox contract renews in 2012, the ESPN contract will continue to pay the same big 12 proceeds to the conference, regardless of what members are in the conference. MWC members would be guaranteed a significant pay raise immediately upon joining.
This isn't meant to be a knock on the MWC, and its not a knock on TCU or any other MWC team (except San Diego St...they are terrible). Ultimately, money is king. If 2 or more of the "forgotten 5" schools left to join the MWC..it will cost them a significant amount of money over the next 6 years. MWC could join with no penalty and immediate pay raise. The money says this will happen (unless Dan Beebe can find a way to mess this up too).
Assuming the big 12 south members bolt to Pac 10 next week, there are several reasons why the "forgotten 5" would raid the MWC, and not vice versa:
1) Money: If Kansas and K-State bolt to MWC (or Baylor/Iowa St. for that matter), they would be the 8th and 9th votes to dissolve the conference...and would forfeit the extra money owed to them by the other defectors. By agreeing to dissolve the conference, Nebraska, CU, UT, and the other defectors would not have to pay the defection penalty for 2010 and 2011. But by staying put, the schools ensure a significant cash increase over the next two years. (Around +$70 million between the forgotten 5)
2) Exit clause: While the remaining forgotten 5 members would have to forgo substantial cash to leave the big 12, the MWC member schools could leave at any time, with no penalty. Additionally, given the uncertainty of college athletics these days...having a buy-out provision in a conference agreement almost certainty has to be a requirement from a security stand point...especially given the geographic location of both conferences. Say the Pac 10, Big 10, Big East, or SEC decided they wanted to expand some time down the road....and lets even assume that the MWC were a BCS conference. Which conference would they likely look to raid first? The one which doesn't penalize their members financially for leaving. Even TCU fans will admit that stability is crucial for the long term viability of a BCS conference. (If there are people in the MWC that think loyalty alone will hold their conference together, they are in for a rude awakening.) Even now, the Pac 10 is eying Utah if A&M goes to the SEC....and I haven't seen any rebukes by Utah if the Pac 10 were to offer them next week.
3) Fox TV Contract: The MWC fox TV contract isn't up for renewal until 2016 where as the big 12 fox contract is up for renewal in 2012. Any schools that join the MWC in 2012 will have to split the same piece of pie the current members are receiving now. I do think the MWC is due to receive a significant pay raise in 2016, but if the best MWC teams were to join the big 12 forgotten 5, the MWC teams stand to to receive a bigger pay raise four years sooner.
4) ESPN TV Contract: While the fox contract renews in 2012, the ESPN contract will continue to pay the same big 12 proceeds to the conference, regardless of what members are in the conference. MWC members would be guaranteed a significant pay raise immediately upon joining.
This isn't meant to be a knock on the MWC, and its not a knock on TCU or any other MWC team (except San Diego St...they are terrible). Ultimately, money is king. If 2 or more of the "forgotten 5" schools left to join the MWC..it will cost them a significant amount of money over the next 6 years. MWC could join with no penalty and immediate pay raise. The money says this will happen (unless Dan Beebe can find a way to mess this up too).