TCU #5 this week in BCS (most probably)
Posted: Sun Nov 09, 2003 7:16 pmUnchartered Territory
Barring some unforeseen computer calculations, it appears safe to say that this week TCU will become the first team ever from a non-BCS conference to hold a top-six spot in the BCS Standings. This is significant because a top-six finish in the BCS Standings guarantees a place in a BCS bowl game if your team does not play in a BCS conference. In other words, TCU will be in the Bowl Championship Series if it can hold its ground over the final four weekends of the regular season.
For Texas Christian, holding its ground involves more than just winning its remaining games, however. The Horned Frogs will lose points in the schedule strength column because of their season finale against currently winless SMU, and such a weak opponent typically has a negative impact on computer rankings, as well. In order to offset this potential damage to its BCS score, TCU probably needs to climb a little bit higher in the polls of human voters.
Therefore, the BCS fate of the Frogs (if they can beat Cincinnati, Southern Miss and SMU) will sit predominantly in the hands of coaches and media, many of whom have strong personal opinions about whether a non-BCS team should or should not be in a major bowl game. Unfortunately, the voting over the final few weeks has the potential to be as much about agendas as TCU's perceived worthiness of a shot at the big boys.
These pollsters are currently giving the Frogs an average ranking of 9.5, which combined with a likely final schedule strength ranking in the 90s, would not have been good enough to reach the closing top six in any previous season of the BCS.
Sixth place teams in the BCS Standings
Year Team Poll average Schedule rank
2002 Washington St. 7.0 21
2001 Tennessee 8.0 3
2000 Oregon St. 5.5 42
1999 Kansas St. 7.0 63
1998 Texas A&M 8.5 5
That TCU has even reached this high in the polls is somewhat remarkable, considering that it has won five games by exactly three points and another by seven points against what is the nation's sixth-weakest schedule based on opponents' winning percentage.
The Back Door
If TCU goes undefeated but is not able to finish the season in the BCS top six, the Frogs could still be extended an at-large bid to play in a major bowl. On the surface, it may sound ridiculous to suggest that one of these bowls would willingly take Texas Christian, but if you look a little bit closer, it might not be so farfetched.
Eight teams will play in the Bowl Championship Series: champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10 and SEC along with two at-large selections. A team that is not a champion of one of those conferences, such as TCU, must be ranked in the final BCS top 12 to be eligible for at-large consideration.
At the moment, Texas seems to be a likely non-champion that will finish with a 10-2 record and a top-12 BCS ranking. The Longhorns have not yet been to a BCS game under Mack Brown, which makes it likely that they would bring a sizeable following of fans along with their big name and football tradition. Fan base and a marquee name are factors that often secure at-large berths for schools.
That said, the defending national champion Buckeyes would become another great at-large candidate if they beat Purdue this week but lose at Michigan to finish at 10-2. For the bowl representatives, it would be difficult to pass up either Texas or Ohio State if they are available with only two losses.
But what if OSU loses to Purdue and Michigan? Or what if the Buckeyes win out and give the Wolverines a third loss? Depending on how the SEC shakes out, there might not be another team with such a great name and record that it wouldn't be worth taking a chance on TCU. Is Washington State, Virginia Tech or Purdue that much greater of a draw? That's something that might have to be evaluated.
Next week, I'll take an early look at the BCS games and how they might line up, including projections on conference champions and at-large teams.
Don't forget, the SEC champion normally goes to the Nokia Sugar Bowl, but it will be sent elsewhere this year if it is not ranked in the final top two of the BCS Standings. If Oklahoma stays at No. 1, the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl would get the first choice from the BCS pool because that game normally gets the Big 12 champ. The Rose Bowl would get the second choice if it loses Pac-10 winner USC to the title game. These parameters could make for some interesting matchups in January.
Projected BCS Standings
Stay tuned throughout the afternoon and evening for more updates to this projection.
1. Oklahoma
2. Southern California
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
5. TCU
6. Tennessee
Barring some unforeseen computer calculations, it appears safe to say that this week TCU will become the first team ever from a non-BCS conference to hold a top-six spot in the BCS Standings. This is significant because a top-six finish in the BCS Standings guarantees a place in a BCS bowl game if your team does not play in a BCS conference. In other words, TCU will be in the Bowl Championship Series if it can hold its ground over the final four weekends of the regular season.
For Texas Christian, holding its ground involves more than just winning its remaining games, however. The Horned Frogs will lose points in the schedule strength column because of their season finale against currently winless SMU, and such a weak opponent typically has a negative impact on computer rankings, as well. In order to offset this potential damage to its BCS score, TCU probably needs to climb a little bit higher in the polls of human voters.
Therefore, the BCS fate of the Frogs (if they can beat Cincinnati, Southern Miss and SMU) will sit predominantly in the hands of coaches and media, many of whom have strong personal opinions about whether a non-BCS team should or should not be in a major bowl game. Unfortunately, the voting over the final few weeks has the potential to be as much about agendas as TCU's perceived worthiness of a shot at the big boys.
These pollsters are currently giving the Frogs an average ranking of 9.5, which combined with a likely final schedule strength ranking in the 90s, would not have been good enough to reach the closing top six in any previous season of the BCS.
Sixth place teams in the BCS Standings
Year Team Poll average Schedule rank
2002 Washington St. 7.0 21
2001 Tennessee 8.0 3
2000 Oregon St. 5.5 42
1999 Kansas St. 7.0 63
1998 Texas A&M 8.5 5
That TCU has even reached this high in the polls is somewhat remarkable, considering that it has won five games by exactly three points and another by seven points against what is the nation's sixth-weakest schedule based on opponents' winning percentage.
The Back Door
If TCU goes undefeated but is not able to finish the season in the BCS top six, the Frogs could still be extended an at-large bid to play in a major bowl. On the surface, it may sound ridiculous to suggest that one of these bowls would willingly take Texas Christian, but if you look a little bit closer, it might not be so farfetched.
Eight teams will play in the Bowl Championship Series: champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10 and SEC along with two at-large selections. A team that is not a champion of one of those conferences, such as TCU, must be ranked in the final BCS top 12 to be eligible for at-large consideration.
At the moment, Texas seems to be a likely non-champion that will finish with a 10-2 record and a top-12 BCS ranking. The Longhorns have not yet been to a BCS game under Mack Brown, which makes it likely that they would bring a sizeable following of fans along with their big name and football tradition. Fan base and a marquee name are factors that often secure at-large berths for schools.
That said, the defending national champion Buckeyes would become another great at-large candidate if they beat Purdue this week but lose at Michigan to finish at 10-2. For the bowl representatives, it would be difficult to pass up either Texas or Ohio State if they are available with only two losses.
But what if OSU loses to Purdue and Michigan? Or what if the Buckeyes win out and give the Wolverines a third loss? Depending on how the SEC shakes out, there might not be another team with such a great name and record that it wouldn't be worth taking a chance on TCU. Is Washington State, Virginia Tech or Purdue that much greater of a draw? That's something that might have to be evaluated.
Next week, I'll take an early look at the BCS games and how they might line up, including projections on conference champions and at-large teams.
Don't forget, the SEC champion normally goes to the Nokia Sugar Bowl, but it will be sent elsewhere this year if it is not ranked in the final top two of the BCS Standings. If Oklahoma stays at No. 1, the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl would get the first choice from the BCS pool because that game normally gets the Big 12 champ. The Rose Bowl would get the second choice if it loses Pac-10 winner USC to the title game. These parameters could make for some interesting matchups in January.
Projected BCS Standings
Stay tuned throughout the afternoon and evening for more updates to this projection.
1. Oklahoma
2. Southern California
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
5. TCU
6. Tennessee