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Taking the Sagarin ratings from the end of last season and applying it to the schedule for 2010 we get a record of 7-4-1. The tie is with Houston and the losses are Tech (-13), TCU (-16.5), Navy (-10.5)
The wins are UAB (+10), Washington State (+16.5), Rice (+14), Tulsa (+9.5), Tulane (+13.5), UTEP (+7), Marshall (+6).

The scary thing is that when we played Rice, Tulane, and to a lesser extent UTEP, last season, we were far enough off the Sagarin line to actually lose these games this season if we "under performed" the same way.

So I see something between 8-4 and 4-8.

I'll personally go with 7-5.

Have we improved? What about the competition? ECU graduated a lot of talent.

Did not mention the other projected loss ECU (-7.5). If we beat Houston (Even), then we are going into the last game playing for the Western Championship and hosting the Camp game. ECU could be off by 8 points this season.

9-3 can be possible. One other upset and we should be ranked!

Ranked teams on our 2011 schedule at the end of last season (coaches)
TCU #6 (12-1), Tech #23 (9-4), Navy #26 (10-4), Houston #33 (10-4), ECU #42 (9-5), SMU #43 (8-5)

I can see why Padron sees the goal of Conf. Champs. Got to at least shoot for that.

i will be at the ECU game, only a short trip from the beach here in NC. ECU, though they have a new coach and a significant loss of starters, is a tough place to play. Large crowds avg about 35-40k (mainly b/c there is nothing else to do in Greenville, NC!!) and always a tough D. If we go into their house and beat them, I will be very, very happy.