ESPN insider Breakdown

[NickSMU17]

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/features/take2


Southern Methodist

Southern Methodist at Texas Tech

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Texas Tech C Justin Keown vs.
SMU NT Marquis Frazier

It may not be flashy, but don't overlook the importance of this matchup because Tech QB Taylor Potts doesn't have the pocket mobility to consistently sidestep pressure up the middle. Frazier has above-average closing speed and moves well laterally, but Keown has the edge even though he has only two career starts under his belt. One of those starts came at Texas A&M last year, and while he gave too much ground at times Keown got set quickly and moved well enough to hold his own against Frazier. That will make it easier for Tech's guards to pick up blitzing defenders. Frazier will be at an even greater disadvantage when Texas Tech runs the ball because Keown shows above-average leg drive on film and he's strong enough to move Frazier off the ball.

[NickSMU17]

SMU offense vs. Texas Tech defense

• First-year defensive coordinator Jamie Willis has the tough task of trying to slow down June Jones' potent spread attack and talented QB Kyle Pardon, who doesn't have elite arm strength but whose touch and accuracy make him a perfect fit for this system. The true sophomore should be that much more comfortable and effective in his first full season as a starter. Making matters worse for Willis, CB LaRon Moore, who started every game last year, broke his leg during the spring and is not listed on the depth chart. On the other hand, Pardon won't have WR Emmanuel Sanders, who now plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers, to draw attention away from the rest of his receivers. He'll also be without WR Terrance Wilkerson, who is academically ineligible. Without them in the lineup the Red Raiders have enough depth at corner to at least slow down Mustangs' passing attack.

• Pardon doesn't always make sound decisions under pressure and Texas Tech also needs to disrupt his rhythm. However, last year's leading sack producers have moved on and while Willis will blitz and rush his outside linebackers out of three-man fronts the Mustangs do a good job of picking up the blitz. RB Zach Line goes 235 pounds and does a nice job of creating stalemates against rushers, and SMU can help out its offensive tackles by keeping an H-Back in at times. It's also worth pointing out that Pardon flashes above-average pocket awareness and mobility.

• The Mustangs are going to have a hard time establishing the run even against a front seven that is in transition. Texas Tech's depth chart lists a base four-man front but Willis, who coached linebackers at Alabama last year, is implementing a 3-4 defense. Expect to see both fronts with Brian Duncan, who played middle linebacker last year, lining up outside in 3-4 looks and end in 4-3 fronts. While he weighs just 248 pounds Duncan is tough and strong for his size so he's capable of holding his own at end, and he should have no problem setting the edge when he lines up at linebacker.

Also look for NT Colby Whitlock to make it difficult for the Mustangs to run inside regardless of the front. At 298 pounds Whitlock doesn't have elite size for a nose tackle in a base three-man front but he is stout for his size. He has above-average upper-body strength and uses his hands well. In addition, SMU doesn't have great size along the interior offensive line outside of 308-pound RG Kelly Turner. In fact, C Blake McJunkin weighs 280 pounds and LG Bryce Tennison is just 285 pounds. Line runs hard but he doesn't have the lateral mobility to make something happen when he doesn't get a seam.
Key individual matchup

Texas Tech C Justin Keown vs.
SMU NT Marquis Frazier

It may not be flashy, but don't overlook the importance of this matchup because Tech QB Taylor Potts doesn't have the pocket mobility to consistently sidestep pressure up the middle. Frazier has above-average closing speed and moves well laterally, but Keown has the edge even though he has only two career starts under his belt. One of those starts came at Texas A&M last year, and while he gave too much ground at times Keown got set quickly and moved well enough to hold his own against Frazier. That will make it easier for Tech's guards to pick up blitzing defenders. Frazier will be at an even greater disadvantage when Texas Tech runs the ball because Keown shows above-average leg drive on film and he's strong enough to move Frazier off the ball.

Texas Tech offense vs. BYU defense

• Head coach Tommy Tuberville's Auburn teams were known for running the ball but Texas Tech will continue to air the ball out in Tuberville's first year in Lubbock. Offensive coordinator Neal Brown held the same position at Troy and his attack is similar to the one the Red Raiders ran under former head coach Mike Leach. Both offenses are predicated on spreading the field and flooding the coverage with quick slants, shallow crosses and screens.

Defensive coordinator Tom Mason will counter by bringing pressure from different areas of his base 3-4 front and he'll vary coverages and pressures. The idea is that changing where pressure comes from will confuse a Texas Tech offensive line that returns just two starters and changing the coverage will force QB Taylor Potts to hold the ball longer than he wants to. However, the Red Raiders have the edge here. Potts has ample experience and is capable of locating the open man or most favorable matchup and getting the ball out of his hand before the pass rush closes in.

• Mason lost two starters from last year's secondary so he doesn't have the depth at corner to consistently match up in man coverage with a Texas Tech receiving corps that returns its top four receivers from a year ago. Keep an eye on WR Detron Lewis in particular. Lewis does a nice job negotiating the middle of the field and has the burst to get open quickly on drag/crossing routes. He should have plenty of room to work when Mason rushes one or both inside linebackers. If Lewis able to catch the ball in stride it's important that the Mustangs take sound pursuit angles and tackle well because he is a dangerous open-field runner. In addition, RB Baron Batch finished third on the team in receptions last year and will provides a reliable safety valve when Mason blitzes one or both outside linebackers.

• Texas Tech's read-option package won't be as effective with Potts in the game but SMU can't afford to get lulled to sleep by the passing game. Batch is a downhill runner who reads his blocks well and shows great burst when he gets a seam. Though he doesn't have great power or size, look for him to run well between the tackles. NT Marquis Frazier lined up at defensive end last year and will have a difficult time holding his ground against double teams. His inability to do so will make it easier for Tech's interior offensive line to get bodies on LBs Pete Fleps and Taylor Reed. In addition, the Red Raiders' spread sets will stretch the defensive front so it will take a bit longer for the perimeter run defenders to close in on Batch. If those perimeter defenders start cheating in it will open up the bubble screen on the outside.
Scouts' Edge

Pardon's ability to buy time in the pocket and hit receivers in stride will keep the Mustangs in the game but it won't be enough to get them the win on the road. The strength of both offenses is their passing attacks and Potts' receiving corps matches up better with SMU's pass defense than Pardon's against Tech, and the Red Raiders' superior offensive balance will help keep SMU off balance and allow them to sustain longer drives. Add in explosive Texas Tech KOR Eric Stephens working against an SMU kickoff cover team that surrendered two touchdowns last year and you get Tuberville's gets his first win at Texas Tech.

Prediction: Red Raiders 31, Mustangs 24

[NickSMU17]

They give us the edge in
QB, Oline, LBs, and coaching

[Harry0569]

Did anyone else notice that it says TTU offense vs. BYU defense?

[NickSMU17]

I did, but its a good write up and pretty accurate.

[Harry0569]

I agree. I just don't think we will be able to contain Batch, which allows them to have manageable 2nd and 3rd down distances. I foresee Detron Lewis going off against us. Here's to hoping I'm wrong

My huge fear is that we come out flat, and go down 7-0, 10-0, 14-0 early. I know we have a high-powered offense, but if we can't get some stops to open the game, it does not bode well. For our defense, it's all about confidence (see the Nevada game). When we stopped Kaepernick on that 4th down play, our D took it to another level. If we can do that, or force a turnover, we stand a chance.

[sbsmith]

I agree. I just don't think we will be able to contain Batch, which allows them to have manageable 2nd and 3rd down distances. I foresee Detron Lewis going off against us. Here's to hoping I'm wrong

My huge fear is that we come out flat, and go down 7-0, 10-0, 14-0 early. I know we have a high-powered offense, but if we can't get some stops to open the game, it does not bode well. For our defense, it's all about confidence (see the Nevada game). When we stopped Killpatrick on that 4th down play, our D took it to another level. If we can do that, or force a turnover, we stand a chance.

Don't you mean Kaepernick?

[Harry0569]

I agree. I just don't think we will be able to contain Batch, which allows them to have manageable 2nd and 3rd down distances. I foresee Detron Lewis going off against us. Here's to hoping I'm wrong

My huge fear is that we come out flat, and go down 7-0, 10-0, 14-0 early. I know we have a high-powered offense, but if we can't get some stops to open the game, it does not bode well. For our defense, it's all about confidence (see the Nevada game). When we stopped Killpatrick on that 4th down play, our D took it to another level. If we can do that, or force a turnover, we stand a chance.

Don't you mean Kaepernick?

I'm an idiot thanks sb.

[RGV Pony]

I agree. I just don't think we will be able to contain Batch, which allows them to have manageable 2nd and 3rd down distances. I foresee Detron Lewis going off against us. Here's to hoping I'm wrong

My huge fear is that we come out flat, and go down 7-0, 10-0, 14-0 early. I know we have a high-powered offense, but if we can't get some stops to open the game, it does not bode well. For our defense, it's all about confidence (see the Nevada game). When we stopped Killpatrick on that 4th down play, our D took it to another level. If we can do that, or force a turnover, we stand a chance.

Don't you mean Kaepernick?

I'm an idiot thanks sb.

don't feel bad. The Insider author is probably wondering if KP's aunt Dolly will be watching the game

[abezontar]

Did anyone else notice that it says TTU offense vs. BYU defense?

Or that Kyle changed his last name to Pardon.

[RedBlueSMU]

Did anyone else notice that it says TTU offense vs. BYU defense?

I was more irritated in seeing Padron spelled "Pardon" about 20 times.

[The PonyGrad]

ESPNs "non-AQ" predictions:

SMU 44, Texas Tech 40. Upset indeed. Kyle Padron should have a big day and break the Mustangs’ 13-game losing streak to Texas Tech.

A bit more pithy than the insider breakdown.


http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/25571/page/thursday-predictions/non-aq-predictions-week-1

[The PonyGrad]

Then ESPN has this:

Texas Tech 35, SMU 27: SMU quarterback Kyle Padron is the real deal. Taylor Potts is realer. So is the rest of the Red Raiders two-deep. SMU will make it interesting in the second half, but Texas Tech gets a reasonably comfortable win to bring the Big 12 to 12-0 in Week 1.

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/16159/page/thursday-predictions/picking-the-big-12s-week-1-games

[Harry0569]

ESPNs "non-AQ" predictions:

SMU 44, Texas Tech 40. Upset indeed. Kyle Padron should have a big day and break the Mustangs’ 13-game losing streak to Texas Tech.

A bit more pithy than the insider breakdown.


http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/25571/page/thursday-predictions/non-aq-predictions-week-1

What a hell of a game that would be. My friend is getting married at 5 pm ET on Sunday..looks like I will either be a) watching it at home and late to the wedding or b) screaming in the church service.

[abezontar]

ESPNs "non-AQ" predictions:

SMU 44, Texas Tech 40. Upset indeed. Kyle Padron should have a big day and break the Mustangs’ 13-game losing streak to Texas Tech.

A bit more pithy than the insider breakdown.


http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/25571/page/thursday-predictions/non-aq-predictions-week-1

What a hell of a game that would be. My friend is getting married at 5 pm ET on Sunday..looks like I will either be a) watching it at home and late to the wedding or b) screaming in the church service.

I vote for option B.