What if the BCS has screwed itself?

[leopold]

I believe Alabama to be the best team in the country. I really do. But they have to play in the best conference, too - UA has to play Florida in the regular season, and possibly in the SEC Championship game, and vice versa. Plus, they have to play at an LSU team, who, if they just found a decent QB, would be considered a dark-horse national championship contender, at a solid South Carolina team, and against arch-rival Auburn. No gimme season.

I truely belive Ohio State to be the second best team in the country. But the Big 10 has pulled itself together and that's no gimme, either, especially with their last three games coming against solid Wisconsin, PSU, and a Michigan team that has a Heisman trophy candidate running loose at QB.

The Big XII no longer has a clear cut favorite, either, with UT taking a loss. They play OU this week, and OU has to play solid TAMU, TTU, and Oklahoma State squads. Nebraska has to get through the regular season undeafeted against multiple schools who are still undeafeted themselvesand win the championship game and they had a hard team putting a winless South Dakota State team away.

The Pac-10 all of a sudden looks competive. Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona all look tough, but UCLA and Oregon State both have two loses but look like they could hang with anyone. And there is an extremely talented, pissed off USC team running around who would love nothing more than to go 12-0 and ruin everyone's hope for the national championship game.

BSU, on the other hand, has possibly the easiest schedule in the country left. It's so easy, they are actually praying that UNR stays in the top 25 for a stronger schedule. We made TCU look vulnerable, but outside of Utah their isn't a whole lot of talent on thier schedule - no matter what the Frogs say the MWC is not one of the best conferences out there and is still lightyears behind the SEC or Big 10. Based on level of competition, I think BSU and TCU have the two best chances to go undeafeted this year.

What if this happens? What if some of theses conferences have a 1 loss or even two loss team as champion? I don't care what anybody says - a two loss SEC champ isn't playing for the national championship. A one loss Big 10 or Big XII team will have problems, and a one loss PAC 10 team absolutely will not. I really, really believe these two schools are too high up to get jumped by even one loss champions.

Could the BCS have screwed themselves by refusing to play them? Would they allow for these two schools to play each other if they were the sole undeafeteds?

[Charleston Pony]

let's hope everyone in the BCS conferences lose at least 2 games along the way this year. That would make things interesting, but there is no way an unbeaten Boise or TCU plays for the National Championship over a one loss SEC, Big 10 or even PAC 10 or Big XII team.

[Dooby]

It is slightly amusing that because Oregon State lost to both BSU and TCU, the great measuring stick is now out of the top 25. I wonder how they have to fair in the PAC 10 to get ranked? 7-2 at least. Anyone think that will happen? I don't.

[The PonyGrad]

It is slightly amusing that because Oregon State lost to both BSU and TCU, the great measuring stick is now out of the top 25. I wonder how they have to fair in the PAC 10 to get ranked? 7-2 at least. Anyone think that will happen? I don't.

The play Az St and at Az. They win those and they will be ranked. Only loses will be close ones on the road to top five teams.

[Dwan]

BCS rankings have not come out yet. A one loss team from the SEC, Big 10, Pac-10, or Big 12 will most likely get into the title game ahead of Bosie or TCU. Lot of football left to be played. Nevada and Utah look really good. When it is all said and done, I just dont see either Boise or TCU, assuming they win out, getting into the big game unless some the the BCS teams have two losses.

[The PonyGrad]

Here is a really contentious scenario:

BSU and TCU undefeated
One AQ team with one loss and all the rest with two losses or more.

Likely the one loss team goes to the NC game along with BSU or TCU. In this scenario probably BSU.

The AQ conferences are whining.

The left out undefeated team is whining.

The BCS looks like a joke...

[Dooby]

Now imagine multiple one loss teams from the same conference. That is where it gets really difficult. If, for example, Florida and Alabama finish with one loss, could a one loss Florida trump an undefeated TCU for a BCS bowl?

[The PonyGrad]

Now imagine multiple one loss teams from the same conference. That is where it gets really difficult. If, for example, Florida and Alabama finish with one loss, could a one loss Florida trump an undefeated TCU for a BCS bowl?

One loss teams trumping the non-AQs has been done, though an undefeated BSU and/or TCU would be more highly ranked than last season (barring some really ugly wins.)

[Nacho]

the bcs wouldn't let tcu or boise play anyone else last year therefore no chance of embarrassing a bcs school.
no way either one gets into the nc game, i don't care how many losses the bcs schools have. tcu and boise are out no matter what.

[froglicious]

BCS rankings have not come out yet. A one loss team from the SEC, Big 10, Pac-10, or Big 12 will most likely get into the title game ahead of Bosie or TCU. Lot of football left to be played. Nevada and Utah look really good. When it is all said and done, I just dont see either Boise or TCU, assuming they win out, getting into the big game unless some the the BCS teams have two losses.

Agree except for the Big 12 except OU. They haven't really impressed but you have to hand it to them for scheduling. Screw Neb. They will have zero wins over ranked opponents unless they face OU in title game but they are not likely to run out. That conference is swirling in the toilet. I have no problem getting passed by undefeated Pac or Big Ten team or 1 loss S E C champ.

[Dooby]

Agree except for the Big 12 except OU. They haven't really impressed but you have to hand it to them for scheduling. Screw Neb. They will have zero wins over ranked opponents unless they face OU in title game but they are not likely to run out. That conference is swirling in the toilet. I have no problem getting passed by undefeated Pac or Big Ten team or 1 loss S E C champ.

Really?

[smuuth]

"Not so fast my friends". The meltdown of the big boys and their superior thinking is just what we want and need. Alabama and Ohio State look really good. However, with the upsets and the doubt that is now in the public's mind is wonderful. Just think if the big boys would play in more neutral or away games how many times they would lose to Jacksonville States, Applachian State or Loisiana Lafayette as Kansas State did last year. I think you are overlooking a fantastic Nevada team that can't be stopped since getting demolished by SMU in the bowl. And what about Utah? It is shaping up nicely for us next year if we finish out the season strong. Baylor looks pretty smart dropping us after seeing how we played TCU compared to them. Parity is almost here!

[EastStang]

If we have another year like the one a few years ago, where WVA simply had to beat Pitt to get to the NC because it only had one loss and they lost to Pitt. And remember the BCS formula has negative points for a loss. So, two losses generally carries a huge subtraction.

[GoRedGoBlue]

I truely belive Ohio State to be the second best team in the country. But the Big 10 has pulled itself together and that's no gimme, either, especially with their last three games coming against solid Wisconsin, PSU, and a Michigan team that has a Heisman trophy candidate running loose at QB.

Who has the BIG 10 played?

This analysis shows that, if you exclude 1aa wins, the best of the Big 10 is:

#19 MICHIGAN: 4-0, but 3-0 against teams with a 4-8 record overall and a 3-8 record against Div1.
UConn (2-2, win over 1aa and Buffalo (1-3 win win over 1aa))
ND (1-3)
MASS (1aa, almost lost)
Bowling Green (1-3, beat 1-3 Marshall)

#22 PENN STATE: 3-1, but 2-1 against teams with 8-3, but that includes #1 Bama 4 wins (Lost) and is 6-3 against Div1. Record of Div1 Teams that they beat: 2-3 v Div1.
Youngstown State (1aa)
Alabama (4-0)
Kent State (1-2, win over a 1aa)
Temple (3-1, win over a 1aa, wins over 2-2 Uconn and 1-3 Buffalo)

#11 WISCONSIN: 4-0, but 3-0 against Div1 teams with 4-8 record, but only 1-8 against Div1.
Unlv (1-3, win over 0-4 NMex)
SJSU (1-3, win over a 1aa)
ASU (2-2, 2 wins over a two 1aa's Port St and N. Ariz)
Austin Peay (1aa)

#2 OHIO STATE: 4-0 against Div1 teams with a 4-11 record, but with a 2-11 record against Div1.
Marshall (1-3)
MIami, FL (2-1, win over 1aa)
Ohio (1-3, beat 1aa Wofford)
E. Mich (0-4)

[leopold]

Fair enough - maybe Ohio State isn't the 2nd best team in the country.

Who Cares?

The point is that it is entirely plausible that the Big 10 champ doesn't make it through undefeated, not that it's OSU. Maybe they are actually horrible - that only further makes my point.