Expert Predictions

[Harry0569]

SMU 33, Navy 23. Call this upset special No. 2 since the Midshipmen are 1.5 point favorites to win the game. Though the Midshipmen are coming off a big win against Wake Forest and Ricky Dobbs looked more like himself, SMU is really looking solid on offense behind Kyle Padron. The defense has stepped up, too, behind Ja’Gared Davis, who will wreak Havoc for Dobbs.

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/categ ... midshipmen

[Harry0569]

SMU (4-2) at Navy (3-2) Oct. 16, 3:30 ET

Here’s The Deal … The goal will be the same for SMU and Navy this weekend in Annapolis. The method for getting there couldn’t be more different. The Mustangs rely on June Jones’ pass-happy, run-and-shoot offense, filling the air with passes. At 4-2 and unbeaten in Conference USA play, they’re off to their best start since 1986, but have lost 19 straight non-conference games outside of Dallas. The Midshipmen, on the other hand, are rooted in a triple-option attack that rarely employs the passing game. While Navy has struggled in the early going and is in danger of losing its grip on the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy, it’s also coming off its best win of the year, rallying in the final minute to defeat Wake Forest in Winston-Salem.
Why SMU Might Win: The Mustangs are finding new ways to win, the sign of a maturing program. While the offense is typically the calling card, the defense held Tulsa to just 18 points in last week’s win and the special teams has been pulling its weight. The offense will once again take center stage this weekend, riding the arm of Kyle Padron and the tough running of Zach Line. Padron has already thrown 16 touchdown passes, spreading the ball around to a talented corps of receivers, and Line has helped give the attack balance.
Why Navy Might Win: SMU prefers an attacking style of defense, getting after the ball with linebackers Ja’Gared Davis, Pete Fleps, and Taylor Reed. Against the Mids, if you’re not disciplined in your approach, they’ll bowl you over. Navy is No. 10 nationally running the ball, employing the quickness of QB Rick Dobbs and the power of FB Vince Murray and Alexander Teich. Dobbs has also been making better use of his arm this year, throwing for 573 yards, which ought to keep that Mustang defense on its toes and less likely to crowd the box.
What To Watch Out For: Navy is No. 3 nationally in pass defense, but what exactly does that mean? The Midshipmen haven’t faced a top-flight passing game all season, which is about to change. SMU is poised to test them on short routes and deep patterns, with a combination of Aldrick Robinson, Darius Johnson, and Cole Beasley. The Navy defensive backs could be in for a rude awakening unless DE Jabaree Tuani and LB Aaron McCauley are able to apply consistent pressure on Padron.
What Will Happen: In order to defeat Navy, SMU will have to adjust to different weather and a much slower style of play. It’s not as easy as it sounds. The Midshipmen, back home for the first time in more than a month, will control the tempo of the game, wearing down the Mustang defense on the ground and getting another late, game-winning touchdown out of Dobbs.
CFN Prediction: Navy 24 … SMU 21 … Line: Navy -1

[RednBlue11]

im not sure about our speed on the edge, but I think this is going to be a very good game.

[PonyKai]

Hampton had pretty good insight in his video interview preview about a tall guy like Hunt who's still learning the game...all those cut blocks can quickly [deleted] off a lineman like that who isn't seasoned enough to work through the initial frustration...which allows Navy to hit a seam or get around the edge and break off a big gain.

[Stallion]

that Nevada Hawaii game might be an interesting non-BCS game to watch. Apparently Nevada hasn't won on the Islands since the 40s-(but that only includes about 8 games)

[ALEX LIFESON]

We will have a couple of new pieces of adversity to overcome tomorrow, besides the gusty winds. If we still find a way to beat a very tough Navy team on the road, it will be speak VOLUMES about this SMU club. Being a diehard Stang, I'm going to say we bring the Frank Gansz Trophy home Saturday night. PONY UP!

[RE Tycoon]

The first preview singled out JG Davis and I have thought all week that he is the wild card in this game. If he stays disciplined, then he can dominate this offense. Frankly, I'm not sure if he can stay disciplined. I focus in on him during games and have seen it on the game tape at JJ lunches as well, he basically uses his incredible ability to get where he is going, without really having a destination in mind. If he played with more control he might have 12 or 13 sacks this year and maybe 10 more TFL's, because a lot of time he over pursues or blows by the ball carrier.

I can see Navy completely exploiting JG and letting him overplay and get out of position. I think it will come for JG, I just don't think it is there yet.

[Harry0569]

The first preview singled out JG Davis and I have thought all week that he is the wild card in this game. If he stays disciplined, then he can dominate this offense. Frankly, I'm not sure if he can stay disciplined. I focus in on him during games and have seen it on the game tape at JJ lunches as well, he basically uses his incredible ability to get where he is going, without really having a destination in mind. If he played with more control he might have 12 or 13 sacks this year and maybe 10 more TFL's, because a lot of time he over pursues or blows by the ball carrier.

I can see Navy completely exploiting JG and letting him overplay and get out of position. I think it will come for JG, I just don't think it is there yet.

And that my friend is the key to stopping the option, staying disciplined. I can't express it enough, you MUST know your gaps/your man or you will get carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey.

[Harry0569]

CFN Midseason Rundown

Offensive Player of the Midseason
QB Dominique Davis, Jr. East Carolina

Defensive Player of the Midseason
DE Vinny Curry, Jr. Marshall

Ten Best Conference USA Players of the Midseason
1. DE Vinny Curry, Jr. Marshall
2. QB Dominique Davis, Jr. East Carolina
3. WR Kris Adams, Sr. UTEP
4. LB Ja’Gared Davis, Soph. SMU
5. WR Dwayne Harris, Sr. East Carolina
6. CB Josh Robinson, Soph. UCF
7. LB Trent Mackey, Soph. Tulane
8. QB Kyle Padron, Soph. SMU
9. LB Mario Harvey, Sr. Marshall
10. RB Zach Line, Soph. SMU

3 Biggest Surprises
1. Vinny Curry
2. UTEP
3. Zach Line

3 Biggest Disappointments
1. Case Keenum and the Houston quarterbacks
2. Marshall’s offense
3. Non-conference play

The Conference USA Champion Will Be ... UCF over SMU

Best Game of the First Half
Sept. 4 – East Carolina 51, Tulsa 49

Worst Game of the First Half
Oct. 9 – Louisville 56, Memphis 0

Coach of the Midseason
George O’Leary, UCF

Best Performance So Far
East Carolina QB Dominique Davis completed 27-of-46 passes for 385 yards and five touchdown with an interception, and he ran 11 times for 27 yards and a score in the 51-49 win over Tulsa.

Top Freshman
QB Jeffrey Godfrey, UCF

3 Big Calls For The Second Half
1. UTEP isn’t going to do its annual second half swoon. It’s not going to win the West, but it won’t collapse.
2. Memphis won’t win another game. Neither will Rice.
3. Houston will lose five more games and won’t go bowling.

Best Remaining Conference Game
Nov. 13 – Southern Miss at UCF

[jtstang]

that Nevada Hawaii game might be an interesting non-BCS game to watch. Apparently Nevada hasn't won on the Islands since the 40s-(but that only includes about 8 games)

Including one last December.

[Harry0569]

that Nevada Hawaii game might be an interesting non-BCS game to watch. Apparently Nevada hasn't won on the Islands since the 40s-(but that only includes about 8 games)

Including one last December.

BOO YAH. In all seriousness, this is going to be a shoot-out..maybe a 48-44 game?

[Wuba]

We will have a couple of new pieces of adversity to overcome tomorrow, besides the gusty winds. If we still find a way to beat a very tough Navy team on the road, it will be speak VOLUMES about this SMU club. Being a diehard Stang, I'm going to say we bring the Frank Gansz Trophy home Saturday night. PONY UP!

What are the new pieces of adversity that you are referring to?

[jtstang]

We will have a couple of new pieces of adversity to overcome tomorrow, besides the gusty winds. If we still find a way to beat a very tough Navy team on the road, it will be speak VOLUMES about this SMU club. Being a diehard Stang, I'm going to say we bring the Frank Gansz Trophy home Saturday night. PONY UP!

What are the new pieces of adversity that you are referring to?

One is that jtstang will not be in attendance sporting his traditional Hawaiian shirt. Not sure about the other.

[The PonyGrad]

3 Big Calls For The Second Half
1. UTEP isn’t going to do its annual second half swoon. It’s not going to win the West, but it won’t collapse.
2. Memphis won’t win another game. Neither will Rice.
3. Houston will lose five more games and won’t go bowling.

I am not so sure about any of these predictions.
1) UTEP has only beated teams in the ESPN bottom 10, +FCS, +1 win team just getting out of the bottom 10 after beating another bottom 10 team. They could potentially lose to every team on their schedule but I expect them to be bowl elligible.
2) This is the most likely prediction. Memphis' easiest opponents are on the road at Marshall and UAB.
3) I think Houston is underrated. There is more to the team than Keenum. They beat Rice and Memphis and either Tulsa at home or UCF at home to become bowl elligible.