Hawaii year 1 vs SMU year 3

[couch 'em]

Let's compare the offensive production of Hawaii in year 1 vs. SMU in year 3.

This is important because whenever anyone questions Padron, they mention how hard the system is to learn for both WRs and QBs, and how now, after two years in the system, 1.5 years starting, Padron needs more time to learn it.

For the record, I think Padron will start through his Senior year and improve, but I think there are major, major problems with his play now that need to be fixed. I just don't think "he hasn't had time to learn it" is a valid reason for the problems.

To put things in perspective, this is what Hawaii's starting QB did in 1998, the year BEFORE June arrived:
--------------
1998:
Dan Robinson 2155 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTS, 46.05%. He played some in 1997, so he was a sophomore or redshirt sophomore at least in 1998.

Hawaii:
9/3/1998 Arizona L 6-27
9/19/1998 @ Utah L 21-30
9/26/1998 Arkansas State L 0-20
10/3/1998 Southern Methodist L 0-28
10/9/1998 @ San Diego State L 13-35
10/17/1998 Brigham Young L 9-31
10/24/1998 New Mexico L 20-30
10/31/1998 @ Texas-El Paso L 13-30
11/7/1998 San Jose State L 17-45
11/14/1998 @ Fresno State L 12-51
11/21/1998 Northwestern L 21-47
11/28/1998 Michigan L 17-48

Average points: 12.4 per game.
Not exactly a great team or a great QB.
---------------------

1999, year 1 of June Jones:
Dan Robinson: 3853 yards, 28 TDs 18 INTs, 51.8%.

Hawaii:
9/4/1999 Southern California L 7-62
9/11/1999 Eastern Illinois W 31-27
9/18/1999 Boise State W 34-19
9/25/1999 @ Southern Methodist W 20-0
10/2/1999 Texas-El Paso W 33-3
10/9/1999 Rice L 19-38
10/23/1999 @ Tulsa W 35-21
10/30/1999 Texas Christian L 14-34
11/6/1999 @ San Jose State W 62-41
11/13/1999 Fresno State W 31-24
11/20/1999 Navy W 48-41
11/27/1999 Washington State L 14-22
12/25/1999 Oregon State W 23-17

Average points: 28.5 points per game.
-------------------------

Now let's compare to SMU this year.

Kyle Padron: 3526 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 58.9%
(pulled from ESPN, unclear if includes UCF game)

09/05/10 at Texas Tech TV Lubbock, Texas L, 35-27
09/11/10 vs. UAB * Ford Stadium W, 28-7
09/18/10 vs. Washington State TV Ford Stadium W, 35-21
09/24/10 vs. TCU (Family Weekend) TV Ford Stadium L, 41-24
10/02/10 at Rice * Houston, Texas W, 42-31
10/09/10 vs. Tulsa * Ford Stadium W, 21-18
10/16/10 at Navy TV Annapolis, Md. L, 28-21
10/23/10 vs. Houston (Homecoming) * TV Ford Stadium L, 45-20
10/30/10 at Tulane * TV New Orleans, La. W, 31-17
11/06/10 at UTEP * El Paso, Texas L, 28-14
11/20/10 vs. Marshall * Ford Stadium W, 31-17
11/26/10 at East Carolina * TV Greenville, N.C. W, 45-38 (OT)
C-USA Championship
12/04/10 at UCF TV Orlando, Fla. L, 17-7

Average points: 24.8 points/game.
---------------------------------------------

I'd say that our schedule this year is roughly equivalent to what Hawaii had in year 1.

We're scoring less than Hawaii in year 1, even with an OT game included which skews the average. Hawaii year one did this with what appears to be a very average QB who's stats in year one of the system are about the same as Padron in year two, whom we think is talented enough to be an exceptional QB.

My questions is this:
Why is our offense not doing better than Hawaii in year 1, a team coming off an 18 game losing streak?

Why are Padron's numbers not much different than Robinson's numbers, a guy who doesn't appear to have been anything special. Are we just so used to horrible QB play at SMU that our ability to judge QB talent is skewed? Compared to Tate Wallis or Eckert (I refuse to include Romo in this disparaging statement who was clearly superior to Eckert and didn't have a [deleted] Louis Vuitton wallet) Padron is on a whole different level. I thought that level was 'good', but perhaps previous QBs were so bad Padron's whole different level is just "average".

Thoughts?





(FYI great site for stats up to last year: http://www.totalfootballstats.com/ )

[Stallion]

Interesting but I think Robinson may have been a Senior from recollection-think he was even a JC 5th year Senior-but I could be wrong. But there is some similiarity in the lack of experience. I definitely think it goes deeper than QB. I think we've got 1 big play receiver and 3 possession receivers. I have a lot of confidence that Padron is going to get there. I'm excited to have the most experienced upperclassmann QB since Ramon Flanigan and...still thinking...

[mrydel]

Compare Hawaii year 2 to SMU year 3. I do not know the stats but they did not do well. First year could have been the exception rather than the rule. I do not know the answer, but if you are going to compare a random good year you should compare a random bad year also.

[RGV Pony]

How about Hawaii year three vs SMU year three?

[Stallion]

Here is a rundown on Hawaii QBs tutored by Dan Morrison. Looks like Robinson was a Senior then cane Timmy Chaig a freshman. Nick Rolavich may have been the JUCO Senior that turned into a great QB midway through one season when Chaing got hurt. FWIW Padron has more TDs as a Sophomore (and a whole bunch less Interceptions than Chiang had a Sophomore). Chaing had more yards

http://uhathletics.hawaii.edu/Coach/coa ... coachid=22

[Stallion]

I would say the fairest-not perfect comparison is Timmy Chang who also started as a Freshman. I think basically Padron's stats are significantly better except Chang threw a helluva a lot more passes.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pla ... ang-1.html

Here are Padron's career statistics. Give me Kyle Padron over the All Time Interception King

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pla ... ron-1.html

[Pony_Fan]

I'd like to know our 3rd down conversion rate this year. Way too many stalled drives after driving down the field. Happened in every game it seemed.

How did Chang's receivers compare? Any stats?

I agree with Stallion. More big play WR's are needed. Haynes is not that great, Beasley is good possession guy, DJ wasn't that impressive. 1 big play threat which UCF was all over.

Robinson - 13 TD's, Beasley 6 TD's.

Without Line's 1391 yards (6.1 per carry) and 10 TD's, where would this offense be?

[couch 'em]

Compare Hawaii year 2 to SMU year 3. I do not know the stats but they did not do well. First year could have been the exception rather than the rule. I do not know the answer, but if you are going to compare a random good year you should compare a random bad year also.

Not really a random good year. I picked year one because we keep hearing that it is lack of experience keeping Padron from excelling, yet here we have a QB performing similarly in year one after having a not very impressive year the year before.

Year two featured a true freshman QB I believe. That would compare more to BLM year 1.


Anyway, Padron's numbers were more similar to Robinson's than I expected. I think, like Stallion and others have mentioned, that the problem may lie elsewhere, despite the obvious problems Padron has with the deep ball.

Or maybe the lack of deep ball homerun IS the problem.

[Stallion]

BTW after watching the replay not enough credit was given to UCF's CB Josh Robinson who did a great job on Aldrick on at least 3 plays. On the pass that Josh Robinson knocked away with his left hand-that was a very well thrown low trajectory bomb-which is Padron's best bomb. Robinson just made a great play. Now there was one bomb that was underthrown but nobody has pointed out that Josh Robinson was running stride for stride in Aldrick's jock strap. Josh Robinson also made a great play on that key sideline pass where Padron threw to the inside shoulder rather than the outside shoulder. Pass was not thrown where it should have been but Josh was right there and made a great play. He's reputed to be one of the best cover CBs in CUSA and he deserves some credit. Significantly, Aldrick's TD came against a different CB. b

[ALEX LIFESON]

Josh Robinson is only a sophomore.

[SMU2007]

i don't think you can compare padron to hawaii's qb without comparing Shawnbrey/Zach Line to Hawaii's RBs. The offense is about more than just the numbers that the qb puts up. I agree that KP has been less than effective in several games this year - but there have been good aspects of the O as well.

[couch 'em]

i don't think you can compare padron to hawaii's qb without comparing Shawnbrey/Zach Line to Hawaii's RBs. The offense is about more than just the numbers that the qb puts up. I agree that KP has been less than effective in several games this year - but there have been good aspects of the O as well.

I don't know, unless Jones is changing offensive philosophy, the total production of Shawnbrey and Line is a symptom of the problems with the passing game. As is well publicized, Jones has never had this many rushing yards, despite having some great rushers. I think we are running the ball to protect the flaws in the passing game. It's smart coaching and the right move to make, but if the passing game was clicking Line wouldn't be getting this many carries.

[SMU2007]

i don't think you can compare padron to hawaii's qb without comparing Shawnbrey/Zach Line to Hawaii's RBs. The offense is about more than just the numbers that the qb puts up. I agree that KP has been less than effective in several games this year - but there have been good aspects of the O as well.

I don't know, unless Jones is changing offensive philosophy, the total production of Shawnbrey and Line is a symptom of the problems with the passing game. As is well publicized, Jones has never had this many rushing yards, despite having some great rushers. I think we are running the ball to protect the flaws in the passing game. It's smart coaching and the right move to make, but if the passing game was clicking Line wouldn't be getting this many carries.

i see your point, and totally agree that Line is getting more carries bc the passing game isn't totally clicking, but wouldn't we be forcing the pass even more, and maybe padding the numbers, if line hadn't been so amazing this year?

[couch 'em]

Look at the rushing stats for Jones' 3 years in Atlanta:

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Team.asp?id=20&Season=1994
http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Team.asp?id=20&Season=1995
http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Team.asp?id=20&Season=1996

[couch 'em]

i see your point, and totally agree that Line is getting more carries bc the passing game isn't totally clicking, but wouldn't we be forcing the pass even more, and maybe padding the numbers, if line hadn't been so amazing this year?

I see your point but considering how clutch Line is, wouldn't it just mean more failed 3rd down conversions? I'm not sure we can really say one way or another.