BCS Buster?

[diamond_tom]

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/college-football-analysis-will-smu-play-role-of-bcs-buster-in-2011

[CalallenStang]

Not this year.

[GiddyUp]

Nope

[PonyKai]

I'd be curious to see what similarities there are between 1999 Hawai'i and 2011 SMU. I'm copping out and not doing any research, so I'll throw some stuff off the top of my head. Similarities with five returning starter, senior OL's, a couple who are legitimate NFL prospects, veteran QB and upperclassman, strong line backing corps. I'd be satisfied with a 9-4 season mimicking their 1999 season...

[sbsmith]

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/college-football-analysis-will-smu-play-role-of-bcs-buster-in-2011

Don't have the schedule or the depth to run the table, getting 8 reg season wins would be a huge accomplishment for this team.

[mrydel]

I agree this is not a schedule set up for us to run the table but it is the right type of schedule if we ever want to get to a BCS game. Perhaps need a little better than the Northwestern State team. But as said we certainly do not have the depth yet.

[CalallenStang]

I agree this is not a schedule set up for us to run the table but it is the right type of schedule if we ever want to get to a BCS game. Perhaps need a little better than the Northwestern State team. But as said we certainly do not have the depth yet.

Schedule strength is the most overrated variable in terms of making teams BCS busters. Let's look at the OOC schedules of recent BCS busters:

2010 TCU: Oregon State (5-7), Tennessee Tech, Baylor (7-6), @ SMU (7-7)
2009 TCU: @ Virginia (3-9), Texas State, @ Clemson (8-5), SMU (8-5)
2009 Boise State: Oregon (10-3), Miami of Ohio (1-11), @Bowling Green (7-6), UC Davis
2008 Utah: @ Michigan (3-9), @ Utah State (3-9), Weber State, Oregon State (9-4)
2007 Hawaii: Northern Colorado, @ UNLV (2-10), Charleston Southern, Washington (4-9)

The historical evidence clearly shows that the way to become a BCS buster is clearly not to schedule strong teams, but to schedule a few low-level AQ teams, beat them, schedule a 1-AA and run them over, schedule a non-AQ and beat them, and run through your conference schedule.

[mrydel]

I cannot dispute your numbers but you still have to get to a high ranking in the polls. If we opened with NW State and won we would go nowhere in the rankings. Then if we continue with softies in non conference, I do not think CUSA has the fire power for us to move up enough. Now if we were to beat A&M all of a sudden we are getting votes for the top 25. A&M can lose all the rest of their games but we would have at least gotten on the radar as did TCU with their opening victory last year. I am probably wrong, but I do not think we can ever get there without at least a couple of respectable non conference games.

[sbsmith]

I cannot dispute your numbers but you still have to get to a high ranking in the polls. If we opened with NW State and won we would go nowhere in the rankings. Then if we continue with softies in non conference, I do not think CUSA has the fire power for us to move up enough. Now if we were to beat A&M all of a sudden we are getting votes for the top 25. A&M can lose all the rest of their games but we would have at least gotten on the radar as did TCU with their opening victory last year. I am probably wrong, but I do not think we can ever get there without at least a couple of respectable non conference games.

It's far more important to just go undefeated than to do it playing a tough OOC schedule. June's 2007 Hawaii team played 2 1AA teams and a very soft WAC schedule and got a BCS bid. The WAC has sent 3 of its champions to BCS games and the league was pretty weak all 3 seasons. You rack up the wins and by the end of the season you'll have a high ranking. A weak C-USA helps us more than it hurts us because it increases our chances of winning all the games.

[ponyte]

Not a bad pre season goal to make a BSC bowl. Not sure we have all the components and depth yet to be a consistent contender, but a great early showing and remain healthy and who knows. More importantly, we need to set our sights on the conference championship. Not the west champ, the whole thing. Get in the Liberty Bowl and beat a BSC team. Sets up 2012 for a more legitimate BSC run.

[CalallenStang]

I cannot dispute your numbers but you still have to get to a high ranking in the polls. If we opened with NW State and won we would go nowhere in the rankings. Then if we continue with softies in non conference, I do not think CUSA has the fire power for us to move up enough. Now if we were to beat A&M all of a sudden we are getting votes for the top 25. A&M can lose all the rest of their games but we would have at least gotten on the radar as did TCU with their opening victory last year. I am probably wrong, but I do not think we can ever get there without at least a couple of respectable non conference games.

The last team to make it into a BCS bowl without being ranked in the top 25 in the preseason polls was Boise State in 2006.

They made it to #25 on Week 4.

Here was their schedule:

vs. Sacramento State (FCS)
vs. Oregon State (finshed 10-4 but started season 1-3)
@ Wyoming (6-6)
-----------------------------------Here's where Boise gets ranked #25
vs. Hawaii (11-3 but was 1-1 when played Boise)
@ Utah (8-5)
vs. Louisiana Tech (3-10)
-------------------------------------First BCS poll here - started at #15
vs. New Mexico State (4-8)
@ Idaho (4-8)
vs. Fresno State (4-8)
@ San Jose State (9-4)
vs. Utah State (1-11)
@ Nevada (8-5)
-------------------------Finished #8 in the BCS poll

Boise did not play any opponents ranked at the time they played, nor did they play any opponents ranked in a preseason poll. Oregon State was by far the best team on their schedule, but they were not expected to be good that year (in fact, they lost at home to Washington State and didn't really get the season turned around until they upset USC at home).

A roughly equivalent OOC schedule for us, if we were looking to get it done this year, would be:

Northwestern State (takes the place of Sac State)
Kansas (takes the place of Oregon State)
@ La Tech (takes the place of Wyoming)
@ Nevada (takes the place of Utah)

Again, schedule a few low-level AQ teams, beat them, schedule a 1-AA and run them over, schedule a non-AQ and beat them, and run through your conference schedule.

[mustangxc]

Win consistently over a stretch of years and it won't matter who you schedule. Just run the table. Now, if you really want to build your brand and fill up Ford then you better schedule some legitimate teams.

[mrydel]

Calallen, again I do not dispute your facts. What I do dispute is considering us as far as recent history and voter respect on the same level as Boise in 2006. I just think we need to make a little splash before we can assume just winning 3 cupcakes and CUSA will get us BSC Bowl bound.

And I definitely agree with ponyte. Just beat everyone in CUSA and grow from there.

[CalallenStang]

Calallen, again I do not dispute your facts. What I do dispute is considering us as far as recent history and voter respect on the same level as Boise in 2006. I just think we need to make a little splash before we can assume just winning 3 cupcakes and CUSA will get us BSC Bowl bound.

And I definitely agree with ponyte. Just beat everyone in CUSA and grow from there.

I agree that we need to make more of a splash, but consider where Boise was in 2006. Here are there records for the five previous years:

2005 9-4
2004 11-1 (undefeated regular season, but lost to Louisville in the Liberty Bowl)
2003 13-1
2002 12-1
2001 8-4

The first time they beat a team from a BCS conference? 2004 (beat 7-5 Oregon State 53-34). In fact, that was their only win over a team from a BCS conference in those five years.

If you take a look at their schedules from 2001-2005 (click here: http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/BoiseState.htm#2005), you wont find much that's impressive. I have a hard time remembering how Boise was looked at to begin the 2006 season, but from research, I know the following:

1) They weren't in the top 25 to begin the year
2) The five years previous did not really have anything terribly impressive.

With that in mind, I would venture to say that Boise was known as the team that was "less mediocre than the rest of the teams in their conference."

I suppose what I am trying to say is that the way that we need to make the splash is not by playing and beating high profile teams on a regular basis, but rather by beating the teams in our conference and scheduling a few winnable games in OOC.

[ponyte]

FWIW SMU is in a larger media center and media market. Unlike BSU, we have a history of strong successful teams at the highest level. If we win, I think the threshold for recognition favors us over what BSU had to achieve.

The good is BSU wasn't seen much on a national scale and some folks that voted for them may have done so on record and reputation. We will get looked at much soon er and seen by more folks. So if we do well, we can be a BSC buster sooner. But we can't rely on stats and word of mouth as we will get national attention due to our market and schedule.

I think we are in a more favorable but more accountable position. It could be better or it could be worse. But regardless, its better than 4 years ago.