ESPN insider A&M
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:09 pmA&M, other 'it' teams will disappoint
Texas A&M Aggies
Our "it" team detector puts the bullseye squarely on Texas A&M heading into the fall. The Aggies rank 8th in the USA Today coaches poll and 9th in the ESPN power poll. But Texas A&M has a very weak PFEI profile (No. 56). They are only three games over .500 against FBS teams over the last five seasons and even the enthusiasm of their success down the stretch last year needs to be tempered a bit. Yes, the six-game winning streak did feature an impressive victory over powerhouse Oklahoma, and Ryan Tannehill breathed a bit more life into the offense after taking over at quarterback midseason, but our numbers adjust for performance relative to opponent strength, and the improvement in the six-game winning streak was only marginally positive.
In other words, Texas A&M was a solid team last year but hardly a national championship contender. The program is certainly on the rise, but that rise is a slow, steady one, making it unlikely that the Aggies will instantly emerge as a BCS contender.
There's always the matter of competition when it comes to projections, too, and A&M doesn't necessarily have a schedule conducive to making a BCS run. We project stronger likelihoods of elite success from fellow Big 12 members Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Missouri. Like Nebraska in 2010 and Ole Miss in 2009, a four-loss season may lay ahead for the Aggies. Disappointing for an "it" team, but consistent for a program still establishing its contender profile.
Texas A&M Aggies
Our "it" team detector puts the bullseye squarely on Texas A&M heading into the fall. The Aggies rank 8th in the USA Today coaches poll and 9th in the ESPN power poll. But Texas A&M has a very weak PFEI profile (No. 56). They are only three games over .500 against FBS teams over the last five seasons and even the enthusiasm of their success down the stretch last year needs to be tempered a bit. Yes, the six-game winning streak did feature an impressive victory over powerhouse Oklahoma, and Ryan Tannehill breathed a bit more life into the offense after taking over at quarterback midseason, but our numbers adjust for performance relative to opponent strength, and the improvement in the six-game winning streak was only marginally positive.
In other words, Texas A&M was a solid team last year but hardly a national championship contender. The program is certainly on the rise, but that rise is a slow, steady one, making it unlikely that the Aggies will instantly emerge as a BCS contender.
There's always the matter of competition when it comes to projections, too, and A&M doesn't necessarily have a schedule conducive to making a BCS run. We project stronger likelihoods of elite success from fellow Big 12 members Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Missouri. Like Nebraska in 2010 and Ole Miss in 2009, a four-loss season may lay ahead for the Aggies. Disappointing for an "it" team, but consistent for a program still establishing its contender profile.