CFN Prediction: SMU 24 UCF 17

[Harry0569]

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1116947.html

Here’s The Deal … East meets West in an intriguing rematch of last year’s Conference USA title game. Defensive-based UCF is the reigning league champ. High-powered SMU is coming off a monster signature win. En garde. The Mustangs became the talk of the conference after knocking off nationally-ranked TCU in Fort Worth, 40-33, for their fourth win in-a-row. It was another significant building block for June Jones, who’s weaving yet another impressive story in his remarkable coaching career. The Knights used visiting Marshall last weekend to get back on track following back-to-back road losses to Florida International and BYU. It wasn’t pretty, but it was a necessary first step for a program that seemed to have lost its way toward the latter half of September. It’s been an interesting past couple of weeks away from the field as well for the Knights, which have been linked to a possible invitation to fill one of the openings in the Big East.

Why UCF Might Win: From a statistical perspective, the Knights defense is right up there with Alabama and LSU. Now, the unit clearly doesn’t harbor the depth and talent of the Tide or the Tigers, but by Conference USA standards, it’s as stingy as it gets. UCF is giving up a mere 10 points a game, a figure that would be even lower if the offense and special teams eliminated some mistakes. Despite being thrown on 135 times, the Josh Robinson-led secondary is the last one in America that’s yet to allow a touchdown pass. Plus, with linebackers Jonathan Davis and Josh Linam roaming the field like hawks, the Knights are giving up a measly 177 yards a game.

Why SMU Might Win: Countering that stingy UCF defense will be Jones’ offense, a balanced attack that’s scored 40 or more points in each of the last three games. In the win over the Horned Frogs, the Mustangs got 120 yards on the ground from Zach Line, and a career-best performance out of QB J.J. McDermott. The senior, who supplanted Kyle Padron in the opening day loss to Texas A&M, peppered the TCU defense for 349 yards and four touchdown passes. His corps of receivers, headed by Darius Johnson, will give the Knights defensive backfield its best workout of the year. As second bananas go, the SMU defense is playing much better than the UCF offense.

What To Watch Out For: To win in Dallas, UCF must run the ball successfully; it’s passing under Jeff Godfrey just doesn’t possess enough pop. The problem for the Knights and its deep stable of backs will be navigating an underrated SMU defense giving up just 85 yards a game. The front seven, featuring DE Taylor Thompson and LB Taylor Reed, have done a nice job of cutting off running lanes before a play can develop. Godfrey is at his best on play-action, and when the passing game is a complement to the running of Brynn Harvey, Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray.

What Will Happen: On Saturday, revenge will be a dish served best on the Hilltop. Surging SMU will turn back UCF, avenging last December loss on the league championship game. The Knights will provide a tough test because of their D, but the Mustangs are the more complete team at this stage. They’ll not only put up points, but make key stops as well. A more confident McDermott, coupled with the running of Line, will put enough dents in the Knights to extend the winning streak to five games.

CFN Prediction: SMU 24 … UCF 17
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: SMU -4 O/U: 44

[ericdickerson4life]

SMU 34 UCF 24

[35straight]

We score 40+ again.

[goldenstang]

I think 24-10 sounds about right.

[ponyboy]

I like our defense.

[cutter]

42-10

[ponyboy]

Yet another opportunity to show a potential BCS conference what we can do.

[Dutch]

i think UCF's defense is way overrated. they haven't played teams with ANY sort of offense except the Mormons. if that was our schedule we'd have the #1 defense too.

i don't think that it's going to be an easy game by any means, but we're the best team they will have played to date, and we've played two ranked (at the time) teams.

[peruna11]

Gotta shut this kid down...

That all changed during last week’s game against Marshall. Not only did Harvey get the start, he rushed 30 times for 180 yards — including a 50-yard run on the game’s first play. Afterward, Knights coach George O’Leary told reporters Harvey was his starting running back from this moment forward.

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20111013/SPORTS0403/310130036/Front-center-UCF-has-new-starting-running-back?odyssey=nav|head

[ponyte]

SMU 31
UCF 10

If the O clicks and the D gets a few turnovers it will be more like 41-3

[Dutch]

Gotta shut this kid down...

That all changed during last week’s game against Marshall. Not only did Harvey get the start, he rushed 30 times for 180 yards — including a 50-yard run on the game’s first play. Afterward, Knights coach George O’Leary told reporters Harvey was his starting running back from this moment forward.

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20111013/SPORTS0403/310130036/Front-center-UCF-has-new-starting-running-back?odyssey=nav|head

marshall is #73 in rushing defense. we're #9 (to ucf's #6) and we only allow .1ypc more than the knights

[ponyboy]

We're giving up 3.6 more inches per carry.

[smubrooks]

31-10 Ponies sounds about right. Their defense is good, but over rated and Margus blocks 2 kicks!!!

[The PonyGrad]

Gotta shut this kid down...

That all changed during last week’s game against Marshall. Not only did Harvey get the start, he rushed 30 times for 180 yards — including a 50-yard run on the game’s first play. Afterward, Knights coach George O’Leary told reporters Harvey was his starting running back from this moment forward.

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20111013/SPORTS0403/310130036/Front-center-UCF-has-new-starting-running-back?odyssey=nav|head

That is less that 4.5 ypc after the first play.

[CacheMoneyMustang]

This game reminds me of the NBA Finals, where the exciting part was all about Dallas's Offense versus Miami's D. And like that series, I expect Dallas to win. I feel like we're going to win the offense part of the game even if only by a little, our Defense should readily handler their O, and the Margus factor won't let them settle for field goals.

SMU 31
UCF 13