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Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

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Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:53 pm
by SMU 86
One thing we all know is that while June is only 5-25 against winning teams and he beats teams with losing records most of the time. We have plenty of teams in the AAC the will probably have losing records. So we will go bowling and even challenge for the conference title imo.

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 4:00 pm
by blackoutpony
My eyes are being blinded by all the sun. It's almost like last night didn't happen.... Oh wait, still did :oops:

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 4:20 pm
by gostangs
somewhere on a memphis fan board, someone is writing...but at least we can count the SMU game as a for sure!

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 4:24 pm
by mustangxc
As bad as they have been they would be delusional to count that as a for sure win for them. Granted they are improving, but they cannot assume any wins. Neither can we.

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 4:51 pm
by Charleston Pony
the problem is that we will get at least 2 of them (Memphis & USF) on the road and we all know how well we've played on the road

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 5:03 pm
by LHS81
YUP

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2013 5:19 pm
by AusTxPony
The only way to travel. Sooo much better than walking on nails.

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:20 pm
by SMU 86
We can win conference.

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:57 pm
by StallionsModelT
Dude, Louisville is gonna go undefeated. I agree that we can probably still win 6-7 games though.

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 4:36 pm
by ponyboy
June is only 5-25 against winning teams

I'm sorry to do this. But you cannot and should not throw out a stat like that without something to compare it to. Meaning, sure it sounds bad. But is it really? Try to hang with me here.

We start with the question, what IS a winning team exactly? Answer: A team that wins 7 or more games, right? Actually, no. They need to have been at least an 8 win team in this scenario, because in beating them they still need to end with 7 wins, and therefore a winning record, in order to count.

So I’m not going to drag you through the math – you’ll just have to trust me -- and will jump straight to the conclusion. But let me restate the problem real quick. The question again is how many games against winning teams should a team ranked in the mid 50’s like SMU have won? The answer is roughly 25%. Aha!, you say. I’ll give you that 25% figure before pointing out that we only won 17% (5 wins and 25 losses). Not so fast. If you have to include JJ’s first year’s record -- and I don’t think it’s fair if you do so since this was a total tear down job, but if you gotta, we’re no longer a mid 50’s ranked team. We’re a mid 70’s ranked team. And the expected win percentage for a team ranked in the mid 70’s against winning teams goes down significantly from that 25%. Now the 17% actually starts to look far less bad.

Conclusion: JJ is probably no worse – and may even be better – against winning teams than can be expected.

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:10 pm
by LHS81
ponyboy wrote:
June is only 5-25 against winning teams

I'm sorry to do this. But you cannot and should not throw out a stat like that without something to compare it to. Meaning, sure it sounds bad. But is it really? Try to hang with me here.

We start with the question, what IS a winning team exactly? Answer: A team that wins 7 or more games, right? Actually, no. They need to have been at least an 8 win team in this scenario, because in beating them they still need to end with 7 wins, and therefore a winning record, in order to count.

So I’m not going to drag you through the math – you’ll just have to trust me -- and will jump straight to the conclusion. But let me restate the problem real quick. The question again is how many games against winning teams should a team ranked in the mid 50’s like SMU have won? The answer is roughly 25%. Aha!, you say. I’ll give you that 25% figure before pointing out that we only won 17% (5 wins and 25 losses). Not so fast. If you have to include JJ’s first year’s record -- and I don’t think it’s fair if you do so since this was a total tear down job, but if you gotta, we’re no longer a mid 50’s ranked team. We’re a mid 70’s ranked team. And the expected win percentage for a team ranked in the mid 70’s against winning teams goes down significantly from that 25%. Now the 17% actually starts to look far less bad.

Conclusion: JJ is probably no worse – and may even be better – against winning teams than can be expected.



Image

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 6:55 pm
by GRGB
ponyboy wrote:
June is only 5-25 against winning teams

I'm sorry to do this. But you cannot and should not throw out a stat like that without something to compare it to. Meaning, sure it sounds bad. But is it really? Try to hang with me here.

We start with the question, what IS a winning team exactly? Answer: A team that wins 7 or more games, right? Actually, no. They need to have been at least an 8 win team in this scenario, because in beating them they still need to end with 7 wins, and therefore a winning record, in order to count.

So I’m not going to drag you through the math – you’ll just have to trust me -- and will jump straight to the conclusion. But let me restate the problem real quick. The question again is how many games against winning teams should a team ranked in the mid 50’s like SMU have won? The answer is roughly 25%. Aha!, you say. I’ll give you that 25% figure before pointing out that we only won 17% (5 wins and 25 losses). Not so fast. If you have to include JJ’s first year’s record -- and I don’t think it’s fair if you do so since this was a total tear down job, but if you gotta, we’re no longer a mid 50’s ranked team. We’re a mid 70’s ranked team. And the expected win percentage for a team ranked in the mid 70’s against winning teams goes down significantly from that 25%. Now the 17% actually starts to look far less bad.

Conclusion: JJ is probably no worse – and may even be better – against winning teams than can be expected.


explain the 8 wins again?

isn't a 7-5 team a winning team, and that team is 6-5 without the win against SMU? And if SMU beat then, they only need a 7-5 record with one loss to SMU?

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 9:45 am
by ponyboy
The basic premise here for the 8 wins requirement is that 7-5 teams that we in actuality lost to would not have been considered a winning team had we beat them. So we'd never have received credit for beating a 7-5 squad because in beating them they no longer have a winning season. So the correct way to set the pool is to only look at teams two games above .500 and better.

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:41 am
by ponyboy
In the last four years (2009-2012), we were 7-14 against teams with winning records. 6 of those 14 losses came against teams ranked anywhere from #4 to #20 in the nation.

Key wins during that period:
1. A 28-21 win in 2009 against an East Carolina team that ended the season 9-5
2. A 45-10 bowl win in 2009 against a Colin Kaepernick led Nevada team that ended the season 8-5
3. A 2010 win against Tulsa, who ended the season 10-3
4. A 2011 win at TCU, who ended the season 11-2, ranked #2 in the nation
5. A 2012 win against a Tulsa squad who ended up 11-3
6. An absolute beating of Fresno State in a bowl game, a team who ended up 9-4

Re: Lots of potential sub .500 teams left on the schedule

PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 10:44 am
by Mustangs35SMU
ponyboy wrote:
June is only 5-25 against winning teams

I'm sorry to do this. But you cannot and should not throw out a stat like that without something to compare it to. Meaning, sure it sounds bad. But is it really? Try to hang with me here.


:shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: