READ THIS! Excellent prediction of SMU's 2013 season!

[feelthehorsepower]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... w/2387967/

College football countdown | No. 99: SMU
Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY Sports 10:13 p.m. EDT August 26, 2013
USA TODAY Sports' Paul Myerberg counts down to the start of the college football season team by team from No. 125 to No. 1.

2013-6-4-smu
(Photo: Jim Cowsert, USA TODAY Sports)
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
SMU is one of four ex-Conference USA teams joining the American Athletic Conference in 2013
The Mustangs have won at least seven games in each of the last four seasons under June Jones
To reach another bowl, SMU will need to find answers on the offensive line and on defense
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SMU beat Tulsa in 2012, TCU in 2011, Tulsa in 2010 and East Carolina in 2009, but that's it. What am I listing? That's the number of regular-season victories SMU has produced in the past four years against teams which would go onto to post a winning record. That's all: four. One per season.

And that should in no way detract from the work former Hawaii coach June Jones has put in remaking this once-proud, once-left-for-dead program since coming over from the islands in time for the 2008 season. What's the biggest thing Jones has done for this program? Make the fourth of four seasons with seven or more wins in a row a bit of a disappointment, believe it or not.

Last year's team was better than its 7-6 record might indicate, particularly in terms of personnel. The Mustangs had a five-star transfer from Texas at quarterback, a two-time 1,000-yard rusher in the backfield, a 1,000-yard receiver, a strong defensive line, an outstanding linebacker corps and a ball-hawking secondary. Yet the Mustangs still failed to beat any opponent of consequence outside of Tulsa, going 1-5 during the regular season against eventual bowl teams.

Then came the postseason, when SMU rocked and rolled over Fresno State by 33 points. So which team shows up in 2013: the gang that feasted on the weak or the bunch that whooped a nine-win team during bowl play? Given the program's move to the American Athletic Conference, it's an important question to consider.

NO. 125 TO NO. 1: College football countdown

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

SMU has too many questions to address before September to be picked to take home the Conference USA West division. But, in a way, that the majority of the Mustangs' issues are found on the offensive side of the ball bodes well for this team; Jones is one of the great offensive minds in college football, after all. The good news is that as this offense develops, the defense is strong enough to win games. I love the front seven: it's time for Hunt to become a star; his line mates, Grenier and Pittman, are consistently solid; and the linebacker corps is outstanding. The bottom line: SMU is a bowl team that will dominate the league's bottom half but must patch up its offensive holes before running with Tulsa, Houston and UCF in the race of the Conference USA crown.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: SMU reached a school-record fourth bowl game in a row; this period is now long enough, in my mind, for this program to have fully distanced itself from the woeful post-probation period that lingered for the better part of a generation. Better yet, SMU ended the year with a huge, confidence-building win over the Bulldogs to finish at or above .500 for the fourth time in five seasons under Jones. Not that it was a satisfying season by any stretch. The Mustangs lost to Tulane, for one, which is inexcusable, and lost by a combined 47 points to Rice and UCF. SMU was also unable to notch another win over a major in-state opponent, coming within eight points of TCU (24-16) but losing by lopsided margins to Baylor (59-24) and Texas A&M (48-3).

— High point: SMU capped the year with two of the program's more impressive wins in recent memory: 35-27 over Tulsa and 43-10 over Fresno State. The Mustangs – and Margus Hunt in particular – just throttled the Bulldogs in the Hawaii Bowl.

— Low point: Losses to eventual bowl teams in UCF and Rice. Neither was close, unfortunately, though SMU was able to salvage some of its lost pride over the year's final two games.

— Tidbit: SMU tied an FBS record in 2012 by returning eight interceptions for touchdowns. Three came in a 72-42 win over Houston. The Mustangs entered the fourth quarter of the Hawaii Bowl two shy of the record, set by Tennessee in 1971, but had two pick-sixes over the final nine minutes.

— Tidbit (defense edition): SMU's defense came to play a season ago. In addition to the interception-for-touchdown returns, the Mustangs pitched two shutouts (Stephen F. Austin and UTEP) in the same year for the first time since 1983, finished fifth nationally in fumble recoveries (16), fourth in interceptions (21) and third in takeaways (37). Despite losing to TCU, SMU held the Horned Frogs to only 156 yards of total offense – TCU's lowest single-game output in 15 years.

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 18: S Chris Banjo (Jacksonville), OG Kelvin Beachum (Pittsburgh), WR Cole Beasley (Dallas), OG Bryan Collins (Houston), CB Richard Crawford (Washington), LB Ja'Gared Davis (Houston), DE Margus Hunt (Cincinnati), WR Darius Johnson (Atlanta), OG Josh LeRibeus (Washington), FB Zach Line (Minnesota), CB Bryan McCann (Arizona), CB Sterling Moore (Dallas), P Thomas Morstead (New Orleans), LB Taylor Reed (Dallas), WR Aldrick Robinson (Washington), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Washington), K Matt Szymanski (Kansas City), TE Taylor Thompson (Tennessee).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— Tommy Lee Jones' acting performances since 1990

1. The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada, 2005
2. No Country for Old Men, 2007
3. Lincoln, 2012
4. The Fugitive, 1993
5. JKF, 1991

COACHING

— June Jones (played college football at Oregon from 1971-72, at Hawaii from 1973-74 and at Portland State from 1975-76; degree from New York State Regents College), 31-34 after five seasons with the Mustangs. As the last four seasons have indicated, Jones has few peers when it comes to building something out of nothing – and when it comes to SMU, it was all tumbleweeds before Jones strolled into town in 2008. As at Hawaii, which was rudderless prior to his arrival, Jones has remade SMU into a perennial bowl contender.

Jones went 75-41 during a highly successful nine-year stint at Hawaii, a period that culminated in a perfect 12-0 regular season and trip to the Sugar Bowl in 2007. Though the Warriors lost that game – 41-10 to Georgia – Hawaii's success earned Jones the national recognition he had long deserved. While better than the situation he inherited at SMU, Hawaii was in mired in the worst stretch in program history upon Jones' arrival, losing their last 18 games under his predecessor, Fred von Appen. Unlike in 2008, Jones won nine games in his first season at Hawaii, marking one of the best single-season turnarounds in FBS history. After slipping back to 3-9 in his second season, the Warriors won at least eight games in six of the next seven years, including 23 in his final two seasons on the island.

2013-6-4-june-jones
SMU coach June Jones has won at least seven games in each of the last four seasons.(Photo: Derick E. Hingle, USA TODAY Sports)
Though Jones was a perfect fit with the Warriors – he loved the community, and vice versa – he was continually frustrated by the lack of support from the university, whether that be in monetary reimbursement or, more important, even the most basic of facilities. When the SMU job became available, Jones saw it as a program that would spare little expense in creating the best environment available. They certainly didn't skimp on his salary; when he was hired, Jones' salary made him by far Conference USA's highest-paid coach. Thus far, he's deserved every penny. But after some hurt feeling following his flirtation with Arizona State and a disappointing final season in Conference USA, Jones is under the microscope heading into 2013.

— Tidbit (coaching edition): Jones' one major staffing change of the offseason was an interesting one: SMU hired former Kentucky coach Hal Mumme as its offensive coordinator and passing game coordinator, adding one of the most influential technicians of the past quarter-century of college football. Jones and Mumme have forgotten more about passing schemes than most of us will ever know, or something to that end. Jones had room for an offensive assistant after dismissing offensive line coach Bob Palcic in February after just one season with the program. Former running backs Wes Suan will take over for Palcic; he has experience working with the offensive line.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: After hitting the books at a record pace just to reach SMU in time for the 2012 season, former Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert suffered through many of the same issues that defined his time in Austin: turnovers, inconsistency, a lack of accuracy and an overall lack of a comfort level, more often than not. Gilbert's career has been well-documented – Alabama, hype, interceptions, turnovers, a lack of confidence, transfer; there were some expectations that Jones' touch, along with a lower level of competition, would yield a drastically improved level of production last season, but that was not the case. But there's still time, one more season, and once again, Gilbert's physical tools cannot be ignored. Nor can the idea that he worked so hard to get to Dallas in spring and summer 2011 -- he took 27 credit hours at Texas that spring in order to graduate -- that he was unable to gain a familiarity with the system or a solid rapport with his accompanying skill players. If that's the case, perhaps Gilbert's ready to explode as a senior.

What was distressing about his first season at SMU in 2011 wasn't the turnovers, because it's plain now that those are simply part of Gilbert's game – you can take it or leave it, but he's going to turn the ball over. What was lacking was an ability to fit the ball downfield: SMU averaged about two fewer yards per attempt compared to 2011 while Gilbert struggled mightily to move the chains on third-and-long. True, some of this can be tied to a younger and less experienced offensive line. But blame also falls on Gilbert, who enters the fall as the Mustangs' unquestioned starter and the would-be leader of this entire offense. It's time for him to deliver.

Former running back Zach Line put the run in Run and Shoot, gaining at least 1,224 yards in each of his three seasons as the Mustangs' lead back and three times earning All-Conference USA honors – not bad for a recruit with only one scholarship offer as a senior. SMU might not need to move far down the family tree to find his replacement: Line's younger brother, Prescott, a redshirt freshman, is currently running second on the depth chart behind sophomore Traylon Shead. One thing Gilbert did well a season ago was use his legs (346 yards), and there's little reason to expect that to change in 2013. But the Mustangs lose one of the best backs in program history; the running game, barring a surprise, is going to take a substantial hit.

The passing game moves on without four important figures: Line, Darius Johnson, Austin Fuller and Gehrig Dieter. (As an aside, Line is a big loss as a pass-catcher but an even bigger loss as a pass protector.) The top three will be senior Jeremy Johnson (67 receptions for 679 yards), junior Der'rikk Thompson (41 for 535) and senior Keenan Holman (25 for 311), with Thompson a threat for the 1,000-yard mark as a full-time starter. SMU is certainly not low on receivers – I count 17 on the roster – but it's a young group, with Johnson and Holman the lone seniors, and it's pretty short on proven production. The lack of experience along the second level has opened up spots in the rotation to newcomers like freshman Nate Halverson and a potential both-ways player like senior cornerback Kenneth Acker, who is currently slated to run second behind Johnson in the slot.

— Defense: I'm worried about this defense. It's a mirror image from 2012, in my opinion: SMU was terrific along the front seven last fall, which led to the opportunistic play from the secondary, while this year's group is almost completely turned over along the line and at linebacker. Can the pass defense continue to force turnovers, score touchdowns, gamble and play tight without former difference-makers like Margus Hunt, Taylor Reed and Ja'Gared Davis? Will SMU continue to make game-changing plays against a slightly stronger level of competition? Those two questions stand front and center as the Mustangs' defense prepares for life in the American.

The defensive line has a new look. The first thing you notice is the youth: Darrian Wright (12 tackles) is the lone junior in the current rotation; the rest are freshmen and sophomores. The second thing you notice is the size – or the drop off in size, to be exact: Wright is 280 pounds on the nose while sophomore ends Andy McCleneghen and Zach Wood are 262 and 258, respectively. That's quite a drop from the Hunt-led line of a season ago, a trio that looked tailor-made to play in the 3-4 system. So there's plenty of inexperience and a smaller group, and that's a worry. Redshirt freshman Nick Reed sits behind Wright at nose tackle while sophomore Jarrett Spencer – he didn't play in 2012 – and redshirt freshman Elie Nabushosi are set for secondary roles at end. This group does not exactly inspire confidence.

It gets better at linebacker. Junior Stephon Sanders (48 tackles, 5.5 for loss) and senior Randall Joyner (93 tackles) return from a season ago, giving SMU two building blocks, while former reserves Kevin Pope and Robert Seals seem prepared for increased roles. The issue is the lack of disruptive ability lost with Reed and Davis, who combined for 26.0 tackles for loss in 2012. I wouldn't look for Pope to recoup Reed's lost production, but SMU is very optimistic that Seals will eventually develop into a successful edge rusher coming off the weak side. Look for Sanders to hear his number called a bit more often on passing downs.

Make no mistake: SMU's secondary remains pretty good. It's quite easily the strongest part of this defense, likely the strongest unit on this entire team, and there's more than enough returning experience to expect a degree of improvement in 2013 – though as noted, the projected decline from the pass rush will test the secondary's ability to hang with receivers. Acker (50 tackles, 3 interceptions) is locked in as a starter at cornerback, joined by Chris Parks (48 tackles), but given Acker's potential role as a receiver, reserves like sophomore J.R. Richardson and redshirt freshmen Horace Richardson and Ajee Montes will need to be ready to go. Seniors Jay Scott (76 tackles) and Daniel Roundtree, sophomore Shakiel Randolph and junior Hayden Greenbauer are back at safety, giving the Mustangs nearly the same exact secondary rotation as a year ago. While the rest of the defense is a concern, the secondary is ready to run in the American.

— Special teams: Senior kicker Chase Hover is spotty from outside of 40 yards but consistent enough in the makeable range, though SMU would rather he not attempt another 29 field goals in 2012. The Mustangs also return junior punter Mike Loftus and the heart of last season's return game, though there will be a change at long snapper. Would you be surprised if I told you Acker is in line to handle punt returns? I'm not. Der'rikk Thompson averaged 25.69 yards per kickoff return in 2012.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Offensive line: SMU's front keeps getting younger. The Mustangs started five seniors in 2011, giving this offense one of the most experience and game-tested fronts in the entire FBS. Last year's group was significantly younger – only a combined 36 returning starts – but had seniors at left guard, right guard and tackle. This season's offensive line returns just two starters, one a sophomore, center Taylor Lasecki, and the other a senior, left tackle Ben Gottschalk. Of greater concern: SMU's current backups include three redshirt freshmen – with a fourth redshirt set to start at right tackle. Suan's work molding this group will define SMU's offense in 2013.

He'll build around Gottschalk, the line's most trusted option and a solid fit on Gilbert's blind side. At the same, Suan and SMU hope that Lasecki is ready to play at an all-conference level in his second season of action – I think he's not quite at that level, though he could easily develop into a strong piece over the next 12 games. Sophomores Sam Rice (one of the last season's top interior reserves) and Kris Weeks are set to take over at left and right guard, respectively, with Weeks tasked with replace Blake McJunkin on the strong side. My biggest worry is right tackle, where SMU has seemingly narrowed down the competition to redshirt freshmen Seaver Myers and Chase Walling.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Temple: I expect SMU to start 1-4, losing its debut in the American to Rutgers, before getting back into the win column at Memphis on Oct. 19. The game at home against Temple the following Saturday will decide the Mustangs' season. A loss would hand SMU five losses through seven games, essentially ending the Mustangs' bowl hopes. A win, on the other hand, would leave the Mustangs at 3-4 with Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Houston and UCF still to come.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: I think the streak of bowl seasons ends at four. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that notching six wins in 2013 would mark the finest coaching job of Jones' five-year turn at SMU, ahead even of his team's initial breakthrough in 2009. Why? Because the offense has questions to address and the defense has enormous holes along the front seven just as the Mustangs' take on a pretty difficult schedule – even if not enormously more difficult than SMU's Conference USA slate, the Mustangs will take on a stronger level of competition in the American.

SMU is going to struggle in a few areas: in limiting giveaways, in the running game, on the offensive line, on the defensive line, with the pass rush and in stopping the run. Only one of these concerns, the penchant for turnovers, is a carryover from last season. The rest come about as a result of the changing personnel on both sides of the ball. How could this defense continue to excel in passing situations when opposing quarterbacks will have time to stand in the pocket and find open receivers? It's going to be much easier on quarterbacks and much harder on defensive backs. How can the offense find another gear in the American with a questionable offensive line and no proven backs in the running game?

SMU will lose three of four in non-conference play and does not seem built to challenge the American's incumbent programs – Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers – among the conference's upper half. Wins, when they come, will come against the ex-Conference USA slice of the American; I'd also include Temple among the beatable opponents on the schedule, leaving SMU with at least three wins, likely four, perhaps as many as five. But getting to six would be both a significant challenge and an impressive achievement, should Jones push the right buttons once again.

— Dream season: SMU wins eight games, six in conference play, to be the talk of the American.

— Nightmare season: SMU goes 2-10, beating only Montana State and Memphis.

— All-name team nominee: CB A.J. Justice.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 98? This university's first president was not a pirate, though he was particularly fond of parrots.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: American Athletic Conference

— Location: Dallas

— Nickname: Mustangs

— Returning starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 56

— 2012 record: 7-6 (5-3)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 68

— 2013 schedule:

Aug. 30 Texas Tech
Sept. 7 Montana State
Sept. 21 at Texas A&M
Sept. 28 at TCU
Oct. 5 Rutgers
Oct. 19 at Memphis
Oct. 26 Temple
Nov. 9 at Cincinnati
Nov. 16 Connecticut
Nov. 23 at South Florida
Nov. 29 at Houston
Dec. 7 UCF

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.

[blackoutpony]

I'm gonna give you a tip. Stop posting really long articles in threads, especially if you aren't even going to edit it so there's random stuff in there that makes no sense.

Just post the link.

[blackoutpony]

And btw, you think we didn't all see this when it came out in August? Stop posting old articles. We've all already seem this stuff. It's been posted and discussed here over and over. What on earth do you think you're bringing to the table?

[SMU21TCU10]

I'm not that bummed about the season. I figured 4-8 this year. Looks like we should go 5-7

[feelthehorsepower]

And btw, you think we didn't all see this when it came out in August? Stop posting old articles. We've all already seem this stuff. It's been posted and discussed here over and over. What on earth do you think you're bringing to the table?

I didn't know this was posted already. Reason I post the article is because sometimes the link is dead

[Harry0569]

And btw, you think we didn't all see this when it came out in August? Stop posting old articles. We've all already seem this stuff. It's been posted and discussed here over and over. What on earth do you think you're bringing to the table?

I didn't know this was posted already. Reason I post the article is because sometimes the link is dead

Not to pile on, but this article is from August. Someone posts literally every single article/preview that is written about SMU.

There is a search function for a reason.

It's November, why would anyone care about a preview from before the season?

[feelthehorsepower]

And btw, you think we didn't all see this when it came out in August? Stop posting old articles. We've all already seem this stuff. It's been posted and discussed here over and over. What on earth do you think you're bringing to the table?

I didn't know this was posted already. Reason I post the article is because sometimes the link is dead

Not to pile on, but this article is from August. Someone posts literally every single article/preview that is written about SMU.

There is a search function for a reason.

It's November, why would anyone care about a preview from before the season?

I post so that people take a chill pill as this was expected. People are mad that we aren't 12-0 and overlooked that we have some deficiencies that need to be addressed!

[blackoutpony]

I post so that people take a chill pill as this was expected. People are mad that we aren't 12-0 and overlooked that we have some deficiencies that need to be addressed!

You will find exactly zero people on here that ever thought we would go 12-0 this year

[feelthehorsepower]

I post so that people take a chill pill as this was expected. People are mad that we aren't 12-0 and overlooked that we have some deficiencies that need to be addressed!

You will find exactly zero people on here that ever thought we would go 12-0 this year

8-4 was realistic

[blackoutpony]

I post so that people take a chill pill as this was expected. People are mad that we aren't 12-0 and overlooked that we have some deficiencies that need to be addressed!

You will find exactly zero people on here that ever thought we would go 12-0 this year

8-4 was realistic

No it was not

[Harry0569]

8-4 was not realistic.

SEARCH FUNCTION USED

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=66485&p=899826&hilit=prediction#p899826

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=66385&hilit=prediction

[PonyPlayer4]

Why the hell post a season preview/prediction article in the middle of November?

[Junior]

any predictions on last year's team?

[feelthehorsepower]

8-4 was not realistic.

SEARCH FUNCTION USED

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=66485&p=899826&hilit=prediction#p899826

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=66385&hilit=prediction

Okay...I see

[HarvCrimYaleBlue]

Tough crowd.


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