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Ran some quick numbers I wanted to share. These are based on Sagarin ratings. Higher the rating the stronger the team. I pulled all the ratings for teams we beat or lost to since 2000. I excluded the bowl games under June for a fair comparison. Let's take a look:

Average rating of teams we beat and teams we lost to:



Looks like we have lost to slightly better teams on average lately, and that the end of Bennett beat a strong slate of teams, relatively. But this can be misleading as beating some awesome teams would be averaged out by having to play some garbage teams on the schedule. Vice-versa for losses.

If we look at only the best team beat and worst team lost to each year:



Interesting. Very cyclical. The JJ and PB best wins match in pattern. June has take less bad Tulane-esque losses compared to Phil.

Let's wipe out the one-off wins and losses and take the best three teams beat, and worst three teams lost to. I think this would be the best indicator:



Very similar patterns between June and Phil on the win side. Our suspicions that we will crash even worst next year would be predicted by this pattern. You can even see the last two years of Cavan fitting the end of this pattern as well.

On the loss side, Phil lost to some worse teams than June has, but the pattern is the same. End of Cavan matches also. I think this is due to conference strength based on what I noticed entering the data.

One more interesting piece comparing strength. On wins over entire tenure:



The best team ever beaten by either coach is about the same. The top three teams beaten by June are slightly better than the top by by Phil.... but not that different. The cycle repeats.

Good info. JJ gave us a bump for a couple years, but is in decline for last two years. From a bottom line outlook, I think most were happy until ASU/JJ fiasco and the following decline in performance. $2m a year to be right back where we were with PB. With JJ, we might not drop to 1-11 again, but doubt we get back to 8 wins either.

Seems that the Ws over Fresno, Pitt, and Nevada would showcase that JJ has the upper hand in all of this analysis.

Hard to not take into consideration four additional games that were played against winning teams in the JJ era.

#neverforgettulane2012

Those games arent apples to aplles since they had a month to prepare, were often against teams in chaos (nevada losing best players via arrest, Pitt having no coaching staff) or in the June voodoo homecooking of Hawaii. The Fresno win is above reproach but nobody can say whether the best Bennett team could have done similar given a month to prepare. He never had the chance.

Exactly...never underestimate the June voodoo homecooking. Mustang Manna!

I posted the details in a previous thread, but when you look at Bennett versus June, they have pretty much the same record against teams ranked under 100 in the Massey ratings.

The difference between the two coaches is that June has a very good record against teams ranked over 100, whereas Bennett was around .500 against those same teams.

couch 'em wrote:Those games arent apples to aplles since they had a month to prepare, were often against teams in chaos (nevada losing best players via arrest, Pitt having no coaching staff) or in the June voodoo homecooking of Hawaii. The Fresno win is above reproach but nobody can say whether the best Bennett team could have done similar given a month to prepare. He never had the chance.

Bennett had 6 games where he had over a month to prepare. He went 0-6 and lost those games by an average of 28 points. Most of them were over by halftime.

I would argue that our team is always in Chaos.

We do need more Voodoo though - wish we had some this past Saturday.

What kind of amateur uses Excel to graph data? Get a real analysis program like GraphPad, lets see some statistics!

PonyTime wrote:

couch 'em wrote:Those games arent apples to aplles since they had a month to prepare, were often against teams in chaos (nevada losing best players via arrest, Pitt having no coaching staff) or in the June voodoo homecooking of Hawaii. The Fresno win is above reproach but nobody can say whether the best Bennett team could have done similar given a month to prepare. He never had the chance.

Bennett had 6 games where he had over a month to prepare. He went 0-6 and lost those games by an average of 28 points. Most of them were over by halftime.

Are you talking about the 6 opening games Bennett had a month to prepare. What is June's record in his opening games?

Rebel10 wrote:

PonyTime wrote:

couch 'em wrote:Those games arent apples to aplles since they had a month to prepare, were often against teams in chaos (nevada losing best players via arrest, Pitt having no coaching staff) or in the June voodoo homecooking of Hawaii. The Fresno win is above reproach but nobody can say whether the best Bennett team could have done similar given a month to prepare. He never had the chance.

Bennett had 6 games where he had over a month to prepare. He went 0-6 and lost those games by an average of 28 points. Most of them were over by halftime.

Are you talking about the 6 opening games Bennett had a month to prepare. What is June's record in his opening games?

Better than Bennett's.

My point is that - with a month to prepare:

Phil Bennett 0-6 (Four 30+ point blowouts out of those 6 games)
June Jones 4-5 (One 30+ point blowout out of those 9 games)

I would take June with a month to prepare over Phil. I think June is actually far better with that advance time as shown in the bowl games.

Just curious as to what is June's opening day record compared to Bennett's? Anyone have the actual stats?

SMU 86 wrote:Just curious as to what is June's opening day record compared to Bennett's? Anyone have the actual stats?

Bennett went 0-6 with double digit losses in 5 of the 6. Average margin of defeat of those 6 games is 28.3.

June is 1-5 on opening day with double digit losses in 4 out of the 6 games. The 1 win coming against SFA in 2009. Average margin of defeat in those 5 games is 24.4.

smurzer wrote:

SMU 86 wrote:Just curious as to what is June's opening day record compared to Bennett's? Anyone have the actual stats?

June went 1-5 on opening day with double digit losses in 4 out of the 6 games. The 1 win coming against SFA in 2009.

Bennett went 0-6 with double digit losses in 5 of the 6.

So both are winless against FBS teams on opening day.

The issue for me is JJ doesn't have the restrictions PB did and is paid, what about 4 or 5 times as much. His teams should be significantly better than PBs. We shouldn't even be making these comparisons.