What say y'all?
TL:DR Conference OOC Record
Best Case 33-15, Realistic 25-23, Worst Case 15-33
Vs P5 Best Case 9-13, Realistic 3-19, Worst Case 0-22
Cincinnati
Sat, Sept 5 vs Alabama A&M
Sat, Sept 19 @ Miami (OH)
Thu, Oct 1 vs Miami (FL)
Fri, Oct 16 @ BYU
Best Case - 3-1 W/W/L/W. Cincinnati should easily handle Alabama A&M and Miami OH, but will have a tough time beating a Miami FL team coming off a bye (who beat them last year by 3 TD's and were down by 4 TD's in the 3rd quarter). They'll have two weeks to prepare for the game against BYU in Provo, which is as tough as place to play as any. They might be able to steal one, but this would be a pretty big upset.
Realistic - 2-2 W/W/L/L. They might not have the horses to run with BYU in the thin mountain air, but take care of business where they have to.
Worst Case - 2-2 W/W/L/L Miami OH is awful. There's just no way they lose either of those games.
East Carolina
Sept 5 vs Towson
Sat, Sept 12 @ Florida
Sat, Sept 26 vs VT
Sat, Oct 10 @ BYU
Best Case - 3-1 W/W/W/L The Pirates get their offense back on track and beat down Towson, a Florida team in transition and a Virginia Tech team they beat in Blacksburg last year. BYU will be to much after trips to SMU the week before and then all the way out to Provo. That thin air is brutal.
Realistic - 2-2 W/L/W/L Florida is still Florida and despite underachieving, they have a ton of talent. I just don't think Va Tech is that good either.
Worst Case - 1-3 W/L/L/L ECU can't replace the record setting Shane Carden and the get beat down by the tough OOC schedule.
Houston
Sat, Sept 5 vs Tenn Tech
Sat, Sept 12 @ Louisville
Sat, Sept 26 vs Texas State
Sat, Oct 31 vs Vanderbilt
Best Case - 3-1 W/L/W/W Tom Herman gets his offense rolling, but Coug High doesn't have enough horses to beat a very very good Louisville team in Louisville. Vanderbilt sucks and frankly I have no idea why they hired Derek Mason as head coach.
Realistic - 3-1 W/L/W/W Seriously, I think they should go 3-1.
Worst Case - 1-3 W/L/L/L Tom Herman is a D baguette who the team doesn't respond to and they somehow lose to a lower rung, yet Fran coached Texas State team.
Memphis
Sat, Sept 5 vs Missouri State
Sat, Sept 12 @ Kansas
Sat, Sept 19 @ Bowling Green
Sat, Oct 17 vs Ole Miss
Best Case - 3-1 W/W/W/L Ole Miss is just too damn good. If they can keep it within 17 points, that'd be a win in my book. Pulling off a win at Kansas isn't inconceivable, but would still be a big win for a program who are still trying to rise from the ashes perception wise, despite 10 wins last year. This is the game to show last year wasn't a flash in the pan.
Realistic - 2-2 W/L/W/L Kansas is still a P5 team and Memphis 10 win season was just a flash in the pan.
Worst case 2-2 W/L/W/L Bowling Green did beat Indiana last year, but also lost to NIU by 5 TD's. Fuentes is a good coach and they'll take care of business.
Navy
Sat, Sept 5 vs Colgate
Sat, Oct 3 vs Air Force
Sat, Oct 10 @ Notre Dame
Sat, Dec 12 vs Army*
Best Case 3-1 W/W/L/W The Midshipman win the Commander in Chiefs Trophy, but still can't take down the golden domes.
Realistic 2-2 W/L/L/W Air Force is a very good team coming off a 10 win season. These academy games are always fights and the game will probably come down to a field goal or two.
Worst Case 2-2 W/L/W/L Army sucks and Colgate is Colgate. No reason to lose here.
SMU
Fri, Sept 4 vs Baylor
Sat, Sept 12 vs North Texas
Sat, Sept 19 @ TCU
Sat, Sept 26 vs JMU
Best Case 2-2 L/W/L/W Baylor and TCU and gonna be rough.....
Realistic 2-2 L/W/L/W NTSU is terrible and having a head coach that cares erases the awful taste of last year’s defacto shutout. JMU is an FCS team and we will beat them as such.
Worst Case 0-4 L/L/L/L Matt Davis looks just as lost as last year and the Oline resembles Cedar Hills JV squad. JMU is Montana State all over again, since they are actually good, but without Garret Gilbert to save us.
Temple
Sat, Sept 5 vs Penn State
Sat, Sept 19 @ UMass
Fri, Oct 2 @ Charlotte
Sat, Oct 31 vs Notre Dame
Best Case - 3-1 W/W/W/L Temple takes another step forward under Matt Rhule and shock Pedophile State at home against the mediocre lions. They take care of business against the new FBS 49ers and whatever Umass is. They give Notre Dame a good game and Rivals 4* running back TJ Simmons annoys the Irish all day, but Notre Dame is still mad from getting embarrassed by USC at home two weeks before and use their bye week to plan accordingly.
Realistic 2-2 L/W/W/L Maybe they don’t take the next step forward after a 6-6 year and there’s a reason Simmons signed with Temple despite his 16 P5 offers.
Worst Case 2-2 L/W/W/L They’ll take care of business against inferior talent at least.
Tulane
Thu, Sept 3 vs Duke
Sat, Sept 12 @ Georgia Tech
Sat, Sept 19 vs Maine
Sat, Nov 14 @ Army
Best Case 2-2 L/L/W/W There’s just no way they beat Duke and Georgia Tech. Those two might be just as ugly as us vs Baylor and TCU. But hopefully they at least learn how to defend the option against Georgia Tech and can still remember it when they play Army two months later.
Realistic – 2-2 L/L/W/W They do in fact remember, thanks to playing Navy in October, and beat Army and Maine to at least break even in the OOC.
Worst Case 1-3 L/L/W/L They don’t remember how to defend the option, despite somehow playing 3 option teams in a year, due to continual drowning of their sorrows on Bourbon Street after getting spanked in the AAC, and get embarrassed at Army by 3 touchdowns.
Tulsa
Sat, Sept 5 vs FAU
Sat, Sept 12 @ New Mexico
Sat, Sept 19 @ Oklahoma
Sat, Oct 10 vs UL Monroe
Best Case 3-1 W/W/L/W Tulsa gets itself together with freshman 4* Chad President at QB and Montgomery’s offense resembles close to what he had a Baylor. They beat 3 teams that aren’t very good and get absolutely murdered in Norman.
Realistic – W/W/L/L 2-2. Honestly, you can swap the not so good loss around to any of the teams on the list. Tulsa’s talent level is very low, but they may be able to scheme themselves to two wins against other bad teams. UL Monroe may have only been 4-8 last year, but 5 of their losses were by less than 7 points, so taking the War hawks lightly would be a mistake. They only lost to Aggies in college station by 5 last year (granted it was Kyle Allen’s first start)
Worst Case 0-4 L/L/L/L The naysayers were right and Montgomery was not ready to be a head coach. Tulsa can’t overcome it’s talent deficiencies.
UCONN
Thu, Sept 3 vs Villanova
Sat, Sept 12 vs Army
Sat, Sept 19 @ Missouri
Fri, Oct 2 @ BYU
Best Case 2-2 W/W/L/L Missouri is really good and going all the way to Provo sucks for Uconn. They just don’t have a shot here. They beat an old Big East rival (sorta) and figure out how to stop the option.
Realistic – 2-2 W/W/L/L Of all the option team’s Army is the worst. Uconn technically has more talent, so hopefully they figure it out in a low scoring boring as hell game.
Worst Case 1-3 W/L/L/L The option can be tough to figure out and the Huskies still stink and are more worried about winter coming.
UCF
Thu, Sept 3 vs FIU
Sat, Sept 12 @ Stanford
Sat, Sept 19 vs Furman
Sat, Sept 26 @South Carolina
Best Case 4-0 W/W/W/W UCF always seems to play South Carolina tough and are not worried about going into their house. They finally have their break though win against them. The knights have enough talent to hang with The Cardinal long enough to pull off an upset in the 4th quarter. Think along the lines of 24-21 game. Would both be huge wins for UCF and the AAC, but neither is far-fetched either. Justin Holman will be in his second season as the starting QB, and should only get better. Needs to keep the INT’s in check (15 last year) and if he can, they can do it.
Realistic – 3-1 W/L/W/W The 10:30 ET start time for the Stanford game and the cross country trip are too much. BUT South Carolina is a little beat up from a big game the week before with Georgia and “the ole (soon to be retired) ball coach†overlooks UCF, who shock the gamecocks something like 23-17.
Worst Case – 2-2 W/L/W/L. South Carolina still has a ton of talent and actually puts it together this year after being incredibly mediocre last year. No way they lose to FIU or whatever a Furman is.
USF
Sat, Sept 5 vs Florida A&M
Sat, Sept 12 @ FSU
Sat, Sept 19 @ Maryland
Sat, Oct 10 vs Syracuse
Best Case – 2-2 W/L/L/W The take care of business against FA&M, get murdered by Florida State, lose by 4 TD’s to Maryland, but somehow, someway, Willie Taggart finally puts all that talent to use and the beat a pretty bad Syracuse team, who are already afraid of the North East cold and are more concerned about getting a nice tan down in Tampa while they can. Doesn’t hurt that they’ll have an extra day for prep, as they have a home game the previous Friday against Memphis.
Realistic – 1 -3 W/L/L/L Syracuse is actually really butt hurt after getting murdered by LSU two weeks before this game. They have a bye week and don’t overlook the bulls and it’s raining, so there’s no time to tan. FSU and Maryland are still massive beat downs and Taggart’s seat starts getting hotter than the asphalt outside his office in July.
Worst Case – 1-3 W/L/L/L Taggart might not be able to coach, but he’s acquired more than enough talent to beat a crappy FCS team. Yay!
