4 wins. Won't be surprised with 6.
JMU, Tulane, and Tulsa.
If we get "lucky" beat ECU and USF (@Navy is tough, but not impossible). If we get on a roll, we could beat them all except maybe Houston as much as that hurts to write. That Temple game will be a fun one. Heck, beat em all and win 8! (JMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Navy, Temple, ECU, USF).

This ECU game is reminding me of the Rutgers game a few years back (first home conference game that could determine the season - we played them to like 3 OTs and lost and didn't make a bowl).
You CANNOT lose home conference games and expect a successful season. HAVE to protect HOME.