Playoff doomsday scenario

by **MustangStealth** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:12 am

What if...

Clemson loses 1 game, but wins the ACC (12-1)
Alabama wins out, wins the SEC (12-1)
LSU wins out (11-1)
Ohio St. wins out, wins Big10 (13-0)
Oklahoma wins out, split Big12 champ (11-1)
OSU/Baylor winner loses to OU, split Big12 champ (11-1)
Stanford loses to ND, but wins PAC12 (11-2)
ND wins out (11-1)

You could see the rankings look something like this, leaving out 3 P5 champions. All hell would break loose.
1. Alabama
2. Ohio St.
3. Notre Dame
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. OU
7. OSU/Baylor
8. Stanford

I think the committee would not put LSU that high, but it is definitely possible if they have 3 more SEC wins on their resume.

by **b_caesar** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:12 pm

Can't just the top team from each of the P5 conferences be eligible to be in the 4-team playoff? If so, that would leave out LSU, and Clemson gets the bid, in your scenario...still, plenty of complaining points for each of those fan bases to cause some serious handwringing by the committee as to how best to proceed.

by **RGV Pony** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:13 pm

Add to that the possibility of Florida beating Alabama in the SEC champ game. How many losses hath Florida?

by **MustangStealth** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:16 pm

b_caesar wrote:Can't just the top team from each of the P5 conferences be eligible to be in the 4-team playoff? If so, that would leave out LSU, and Clemson gets the bid, in your scenario...still, plenty of complaining points for each of those fan bases to cause some serious handwringing by the committee as to how best to proceed.

No. The committee can choose the top 4 teams as they see fit.

by **sbsmith** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:43 pm

MustangStealth wrote:What if...

Clemson loses 1 game, but wins the ACC (12-1)
Alabama wins out, wins the SEC (12-1)
LSU wins out (11-1)
Ohio St. wins out, wins Big10 (13-0)
Oklahoma wins out, split Big12 champ (11-1)
OSU/Baylor winner loses to OU, split Big12 champ (11-1)
Stanford loses to ND, but wins PAC12 (11-2)
ND wins out (11-1)

You could see the rankings look something like this, leaving out 3 P5 champions. All hell would break loose.
1. Alabama
2. Ohio St.
3. Notre Dame
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. OU
7. OSU/Baylor
8. Stanford

I think the committee would not put LSU that high, but it is definitely possible if they have 3 more SEC wins on their resume.

Why would Notre Dame be ahead of Clemson in this scenario?

by **b_caesar** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:00 pm

MustangStealth wrote:
b_caesar wrote:Can't just the top team from each of the P5 conferences be eligible to be in the 4-team playoff? If so, that would leave out LSU, and Clemson gets the bid, in your scenario...still, plenty of complaining points for each of those fan bases to cause some serious handwringing by the committee as to how best to proceed.

No. The committee can choose the top 4 teams as they see fit.

Well, that will certainly help things go so much smoother...and it just makes for more fodder for an expanded CFP - easy argument for why NOT 8 teams?

by **MustangStealth** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:06 pm

sbsmith wrote:
MustangStealth wrote:What if...

Clemson loses 1 game, but wins the ACC (12-1)
Alabama wins out, wins the SEC (12-1)
LSU wins out (11-1)
Ohio St. wins out, wins Big10 (13-0)
Oklahoma wins out, split Big12 champ (11-1)
OSU/Baylor winner loses to OU, split Big12 champ (11-1)
Stanford loses to ND, but wins PAC12 (11-2)
ND wins out (11-1)

You could see the rankings look something like this, leaving out 3 P5 champions. All hell would break loose.
1. Alabama
2. Ohio St.
3. Notre Dame
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. OU
7. OSU/Baylor
8. Stanford

I think the committee would not put LSU that high, but it is definitely possible if they have 3 more SEC wins on their resume.

Why would Notre Dame be ahead of Clemson in this scenario?

Notre Dame is currently 4th. If Clemson loses to any of their remaining opponents, it's a safe bet they would drop more than 3 spots. MSU dropped 6 and TCU just dropped 7, and that loss was to an elite opponent.

by **Fresno Mustang** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:11 pm

But... Clemson beat ND. I guess in 2015 some people dont consider head to head the end all be all. Kind of like when TCU people would argue that Baylor lost to WVU last year and they only lost a "close one" in Waco...you still lost to that team..

by **sbsmith** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:17 pm

MustangStealth wrote:Notre Dame is currently 4th. If Clemson loses to any of their remaining opponents, it's a safe bet they would drop more than 3 spots. MSU dropped 6 and TCU just dropped 7, and that loss was to an elite opponent.

We're talking about the final poll, right? Clemson would still have H2H over Notre Dame and would have the ACC title as well.

by **mrydel** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:21 pm

And people still wonder why they do not expand to more teams. The arguing, complaining, discussing, moaning, groaning will only get louder as the season goes on.

Fairness has nothing to do with it.

by **NTXCoog** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:25 pm

But ND has a tougher SOS which is supposed to be important.

by **sbsmith** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:39 pm

NTXCoog wrote:But ND has a tougher SOS which is supposed to be important.

H2H is supposed to be important too (see Baylor-TCU 2014).

by **MustangStealth** » Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:49 pm

Fresno Mustang wrote:But... Clemson beat ND. I guess in 2015 some people dont consider head to head the end all be all. Kind of like when TCU people would argue that Baylor lost to WVU last year and they only lost a "close one" in Waco...you still lost to that team..

Sure, it's just a possible scenario. We know that early season results tend to be forgotten more easily, and I think a Clemson loss against Wake Forrest or SC would hurt them more in the end.

Another possibility is that UNC beats Clemson in the ACC championship, and UNC almost certainly would not make the playoff.

by **JasonB** » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:22 am

NTXCoog wrote:But ND has a tougher SOS which is supposed to be important.

What are the big SEC wins OOC this year? Alabama beat a down Wisconsin team. A&M beat a down Arizona State team. Florida beat ECU, a middle of the road AAC team, by 7. Ole Miss beat A&M and got pummeled by Memphis.

I don't like any of the teams in the Big 12, but it is kind of a joke that everyone rips their SOS when the SEC hasn't played anybody either.

by **ericdickerson4life** » Thu Nov 12, 2015 1:43 pm

Ah, but that's the great argument of of the SEC. "Why should we play someone out of conference? Our in conference schedule is so hard as it is."

And how bad has the QB play been in the SEC this season. Ohio State has 3-4 guys that would start on any team in that league.