Pac-12's (limited) expansion options
Posted: Tue May 31, 2016 8:24 pmCliff’s Notes version: Pac-12 doesn’t have many expansion options if Big 12 stays together, it’s falling behind financially relative to other P5 conferences because of its poor network distribution, lots of people live in Texas, it probably wont happen
I was thinking about this the other day- if the Big 12 were to stabilize (might be a long shot), then what realistic expansion options does the Pac-12 have?
They're not taking a CA state school like SDSU or Fresno
Boise is terrible academically and is in an undesirable market
BYU is a longshot with their Mormon affiliation (Cal and Stanford would be horrified), refusal to play Sundays, and Utah would do everything possible to block them (although politically, there might be pressure for them to include BYU, seeing as how there's a lot of influential BYU alums in Utah).
Colorado would block CSU
The Pac-12 probably already has the Vegas market cornered with their own alumni, and they already hold Pac-12 tournament there, so UNLV is on the outside looking in (plus their academics are BAD)
New Mexico doesnt bring much
In other words, the Pac-12 is pretty boxed in.
The only desirable market left that’s really feasible for the Pac-12 is Texas – and the two most desirable Texas schools (if the Big 12 stabilizes) are Houston and SMU (which would be ideal travel partners) – located in the fourth and six largest TV markets in the country, not to mention two of the absolute best, most fertile recruiting areas in the nation. Now I know both UH and SMU command a very small part of the DFW and Houston markets, but if you can get exposure if those markets, that’s huge for the other schools. We’ve already seen UCLA, USC, ASU and Oregon schedule OOC games at Jerryworld and Reliant Stadium. You think USC wouldn’t like to play SMU in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl during the State Fair? And then play at Houston the next year? Same goes for Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Utah, ASU – these schools all spend a lot of time and resources recruiting in Texas as it is. I bet they’d rather play away games in Houston or Dallas while having the opportunity to show off their program to DFW and Houston recruits every year rather than going to Pullman, Boulder, and Corvallis.
Why would the Pac-12 need to expand, though? The reason I think they might is they need content and distribution for their network, and exposure across the country. As of now, the Pac-12 is in the PST and MST time zones – which make up only about 1/4 of the US population. Having games in Texas gives your school visibility in the second largest state (which also happens to be one of the fastest growing states in America). The second reason I mention is content– adding two teams gives you nine extra conference games to broadcast, plus probably three home OOC games that would be part of the Pac-12 TV deal…that’s 12 extra games per year, or almost one per week during the season. And for basketball you’re probably looking at about thirty extra games added to the conference TV slate each season. More revenue sport content = less reruns and non-revenue sports = higher ratings = more money....I think.
The biggest reason for possible future Pac-12 expansion, however, is distribution – last year, Pac-12 member schools only took home about $1.5M each from their network, which is small potatoes compared to the SEC and Big Ten networks. The Pac-12 network is only available in something like 12 million homes, whereas the SEC Network is available in 90 million homes. Now cord-cutting and streaming TV may very well make this argument weaker in the future, but right now, conference networks are the cash cow, the Pac 12 has the weakest network of them all, and one of the best ways to improve distribution is to expand your footprint. How many USC/ASU/CU/UCLA alums are there living in Texas that would demand the Pac-12 network, along with UH and SMU alums? Counterargument: even Texas couldn’t get their network on cable providers for an obnoxious amount of time, but then again they may have been asking way too much in subscriber fees?
Now why it wont happen – as I said before, UH and SMU don’t command much of their hometown markets, SMU would get negative points for its (albeit loose) religious affiliation and conservative political connections, UH would get negative points for being an academic dumpster fire. With the Pac-12 falling behind financially, do they want two more mouths to feed (although SMU and UH would undoubtedly accept reduced distributions at the outset)? But on the flipside, can they afford to stay at 12, isolated in the Mountain and Pacific time zones? If not, and if they cant convince Texas and OU to join, then SMU and Houston seem to make some sense.
Chances of this happening: probably not good, but got better as I drank while writing this.
I was thinking about this the other day- if the Big 12 were to stabilize (might be a long shot), then what realistic expansion options does the Pac-12 have?
They're not taking a CA state school like SDSU or Fresno
Boise is terrible academically and is in an undesirable market
BYU is a longshot with their Mormon affiliation (Cal and Stanford would be horrified), refusal to play Sundays, and Utah would do everything possible to block them (although politically, there might be pressure for them to include BYU, seeing as how there's a lot of influential BYU alums in Utah).
Colorado would block CSU
The Pac-12 probably already has the Vegas market cornered with their own alumni, and they already hold Pac-12 tournament there, so UNLV is on the outside looking in (plus their academics are BAD)
New Mexico doesnt bring much
In other words, the Pac-12 is pretty boxed in.
The only desirable market left that’s really feasible for the Pac-12 is Texas – and the two most desirable Texas schools (if the Big 12 stabilizes) are Houston and SMU (which would be ideal travel partners) – located in the fourth and six largest TV markets in the country, not to mention two of the absolute best, most fertile recruiting areas in the nation. Now I know both UH and SMU command a very small part of the DFW and Houston markets, but if you can get exposure if those markets, that’s huge for the other schools. We’ve already seen UCLA, USC, ASU and Oregon schedule OOC games at Jerryworld and Reliant Stadium. You think USC wouldn’t like to play SMU in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl during the State Fair? And then play at Houston the next year? Same goes for Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Utah, ASU – these schools all spend a lot of time and resources recruiting in Texas as it is. I bet they’d rather play away games in Houston or Dallas while having the opportunity to show off their program to DFW and Houston recruits every year rather than going to Pullman, Boulder, and Corvallis.
Why would the Pac-12 need to expand, though? The reason I think they might is they need content and distribution for their network, and exposure across the country. As of now, the Pac-12 is in the PST and MST time zones – which make up only about 1/4 of the US population. Having games in Texas gives your school visibility in the second largest state (which also happens to be one of the fastest growing states in America). The second reason I mention is content– adding two teams gives you nine extra conference games to broadcast, plus probably three home OOC games that would be part of the Pac-12 TV deal…that’s 12 extra games per year, or almost one per week during the season. And for basketball you’re probably looking at about thirty extra games added to the conference TV slate each season. More revenue sport content = less reruns and non-revenue sports = higher ratings = more money....I think.
The biggest reason for possible future Pac-12 expansion, however, is distribution – last year, Pac-12 member schools only took home about $1.5M each from their network, which is small potatoes compared to the SEC and Big Ten networks. The Pac-12 network is only available in something like 12 million homes, whereas the SEC Network is available in 90 million homes. Now cord-cutting and streaming TV may very well make this argument weaker in the future, but right now, conference networks are the cash cow, the Pac 12 has the weakest network of them all, and one of the best ways to improve distribution is to expand your footprint. How many USC/ASU/CU/UCLA alums are there living in Texas that would demand the Pac-12 network, along with UH and SMU alums? Counterargument: even Texas couldn’t get their network on cable providers for an obnoxious amount of time, but then again they may have been asking way too much in subscriber fees?
Now why it wont happen – as I said before, UH and SMU don’t command much of their hometown markets, SMU would get negative points for its (albeit loose) religious affiliation and conservative political connections, UH would get negative points for being an academic dumpster fire. With the Pac-12 falling behind financially, do they want two more mouths to feed (although SMU and UH would undoubtedly accept reduced distributions at the outset)? But on the flipside, can they afford to stay at 12, isolated in the Mountain and Pacific time zones? If not, and if they cant convince Texas and OU to join, then SMU and Houston seem to make some sense.
Chances of this happening: probably not good, but got better as I drank while writing this.